| Author | Message | ||
     Aesquire |
Outdo Al The Prophet? Well, I've been studying weather and climate since the mid seventies, so much longer than Al. I got "A"s in Meteorology, so much better than Al. I make at least an order of magnitude less pollution than Al. I burn less fossil fuel in a year than Al does on a weekend of preaching. And I never asked a massage professional for extras. So, ethically, I DO actually outdo Gore! Thanks for bringing that up! And I'm utterly unapologetic about mocking religious cults created in the 20th century to steal money. Especially one where the fringe, but vocal activists, call for my extinction so they can Save The Planet. And as dawn rises, I'll sit on the porch and drink some coffee, maybe even fresh ground!, to watch the herd of deer in my yard wake up and start their day. Later, weather permitting, I'll get out my new 420 kite ( snicker. 4.2 meter span ) and practice with it in preparation for warmer waters and canoe shenanigans. I'm resisting the urge to build another flying machine... Like the Gyro Captain's from Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome. | ||
| Aesquire |
Oh, thanks for the compliment. I try hard to never post a bad Oprah gif! | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/03/a-m iscellaney-of-energy-news.php Toyota warns that the grid and infrastructure simply aren’t there to support the electrification of the private car fleet. A 2017 U.S. government study found that we would need about 8,500 strategically-placed charge stations to support a fleet of just 7 million electric cars. That’s about six times the current number of electric cars but no one is talking about supporting just 7 million cars. We should be talking about powering about 300 million within the next 20 years, if all manufacturers follow GM and stop making ICE cars. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://amgreatness.com/2021/03/20/science/ | ||
| Hootowl |
I suspect the author of that piece is just anti-electric car. Tesla has 20,000 chargers with more coming online every day. I haven’s visited one since last summer, though. No need. If you’re not on a road trip, you charge at home. Having a gazillion chargers out there isn’t really necessary. I leave the house every day all charged up with no concern about running out before I get home. It’s a different way of looking at fueling up. It’s like topping up your tank every day. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/03/the -harm-done-by-environmentalists.php A charger every 2 miles doesn't do you any good when the grid is down. I'll skip the political causes of fire season amplification and grid shutdowns. Your Tesla, CPAP, oxygen concentrator, and pot/bitcoin farms, don't work. Or AC, heat, and big screen shower tv. Or the shower. But that's human idiocy and corruption. Basic, inescapable, math, says you need more power generation and infrastructure, to replace liquid fuels with batteries. And vastly bigger mines to get the raw materials for those batteries and power generation gear. Much like hopping up an old car, the extra power breaks the weakest link in the drivetrain. Add a turbo? Clutch fries. Better clutch? Broken U joints. New drive shaft? Axle snaps. New rear end? Wheel hop.... | ||
| Aesquire |
Speaking of... https://www.newscientist.com/article/2270366-color ados-legal-cannabis-farms-emit-more-carbon-than-it s-coal-mines/ OTOH... https://www.denverpost.com/2020/01/29/colorado-can nabis-brewing-carbon-dioxide/or Since precious CO2 is needed to grow plants, and brewing beer makes CO2, feeding the gas from brewery to pot greenhouse makes perfect sense. I'm not sure using vast amounts of power to liquify, ship, and store the precious, but dangerous to human life IF CONCENTRATED, gas , instead of just allowing it to disperse to safe concentration in the...sky, where the pot greenhouse can gather it by turning on a fan, is sane by any view. However, if I was designing the environmental systems for an O'Neill colony or moonbase, I'd be sure to plan ducting from the Coors module to the Chong module. That's just smart. | ||
| Hootowl |
Most of the anti electric car studies skip right over the fact that large power demands are mostly a daytime phenomenon. At night, the mostly idle power plants would simply not idle. Will there be an increase in demand? Sure. Go back 100 years and project the infrastructure required to power all those liquid fueled cars people were about to buy. It would have seemed just as formidable a task. Expanding something we’re already using over the next 30 years by 20-30 percent won’t be a big deal. | ||
| Ratbuell |
You don't just need the SOURCE of the power (plants, whether coal, oil, nuke, hydro, or "renewable")...you also need DISTRIBUTION. Heavy enough wiring to carry all the extra juice. Ever do a heavy-up on an electrical panel? Take your home panel from 100A to 200A, and let me know what you DON'T have to change - it's a much smaller list, than what you DO change. Now, take that on a total scale - you have to change the transmission lines (Court, feel free to step in here...). You have to change regional feeds. Local feeds. Every single house has to be looked at, and possibly upgraded to handle the "quick-charge" portion of the cars (generally 240v or more). Hell...they may need to be upgraded just because of TIME - a rental I own, I had to update every single inch of wire from the original 1952 knob-and-tube, cloth-wrap hot/neutral (no ground) wiring. How many buildings will fall into THAT category when people start upgrading for charging stations? How many people will want to incur the additional expen$e for those upgrades, after just buying their new electric vehicle? Or...you can charge your snazzy new electro-mobile on 110v, and drive it 2 out of 3 days...because it's on charge for the rest. Want to think about how fast power upgrades happen? Look at how many areas still have above-ground transmission lines, instead of better-protected underground lines. We can't even get THAT upgrade done on a national scale... | ||
| Aesquire |
Sure, if a rational person was in charge. But you're not. And the primary source of the materials for the batteries, motors, and generators is a country that will cut off supplies to us decadent westerners if we object to their conquest of the region. Will the same people that tell you you need to wear a mask after you've been vaccinated against the disease you're wearing the mask to avoid really build more power plants to charge your batteries? Or will they use the same reasoning that is going to burn more homes on the West coast again this year? | ||
| Hootowl |
Rat, yes, I have in fact upgraded my panel from 100 to 200 amp service. Had to change the feed lines, the panel (obviously) and the generator transfer switch. Also changed the meter box because it wasn’t pretty like all the new stuff.  However, that’s all irrelevant. My car charges on less current than the range in my kitchen uses. And since I don’t cook while I’m sleeping, the car is free to use that capacity. No need to upgrade anything. The power plant has to run, sure, but you don’t need another plant; you just keep running the existing one at night. With 100% adoption will new plants become necessary? I’m sure. But we won’t get there in the next 30 years. Plenty of time to grow capacity organically. It’s not the crisis some make it out to be. | ||
| Hootowl |
“Or...you can charge your snazzy new electro-mobile on 110v, and drive it 2 out of 3 days...because it's on charge for the rest. ” Depends on how far you need to drive daily. I can make it on a 110 charger. Really no need, though. The charger that comes with the car accepts a nema 14-50 power cord and charges the car at the same rate as the fancy wall mounted one. I do my own work, and installed the fancy wall mounted one after running a 100 amp subpanel to my garage, which I desperately needed anyway. However, according to people who’ve paid an electrician to install a 14-50 outlet, it’s about a grand, which is not a barrier to entry for most folks considering an electric vehicle. Seems like folks dismissing the practicality of electric cars don’t own them, and have no valid experiences to draw such conclusions. | ||
| Hootowl |
To put things into perspective, charging my car at 12 kw for 20 minutes (which is all it takes to replace the energy I use on a daily basis - I could make it charge slower and reduce peak power usage) is 4 kwh. I pay 10 cents per kwh. So, 40 cents a day, $12 a month. My home’s air conditioner uses an order of magnitude more electricity. The car is almost nothing. | ||
| Hootowl |
I see a lot of similarities between film cameras and liquid fueled vehicles. I suspect the automakers do too, and they don’t want to be Kodak. Electric cars are just better cars. Has nothing to do with being green. I was at a light yesterday with my 75 year old father, who was in the passenger seat. A Lamborghini Gallardo pulled up next to us. Dad remarked about the hot rod in the next lane. I noted that my 4 door family sedan would beat it to 60. | ||
| Blake |
The market and new tech will lead, always does. We've a ways to go to replace the liquid fueled conveyances for extended range travel. I can see huge market appeal for commuters though. | ||
| Cupcake_mike |
Court builds infrastructure, I generate and have a bit to do with transmission/distribution, so I'll weigh in. There are some instances of "peaking" plants which is what I think hootowl was alluding to by his comment "the plants can just stay on at night to charge the cars", but that is by far the norm. Plants, typically are designed to be all the way on (100%) or off, throwing a ton of variability into the mix is often a recipe for disaster because you are "throttling" stuff not made to be throttled and that's how shit breaks. This doesn't even take into account that a shift to 30% electric cars would likely take near 50% extra generation capacity than we currently have. You also have to think about what regulations would have to be put in place to support this mass electrical demand, such as you can only charge during off-peak hours, etc. That's what's nice about ICEs, gas tanks at station don't care when you suck off them to fill your tank, only the amount you do. Where does that leave the folks that don't work a standard 9-5 and can't charge at these convenient times? Stuff like this is what worries me. Plus, you know, the lack of available resources to support this mass manufacturing of new batteries, motors, etc. -Mike | ||
| Hootowl |
I wasn’t referring to those plants, no. Those are usually brought online during peak afternoon loads. Interestingly enough, Tesla is bringing a storage site online in Houston. I’m hearing 36 MW. It’s mostly complete. They say it will serve as a peaker plant and stabilize the grid. It stores excess power produced during low demand periods and feeds it back during peak demand. It might reduce the need to spool up a traditional thermal plant for such use. Peaker plants aren’t very efficient. | ||
| Hootowl |
Peaker plants are also used to take up the slack when wind and solar aren’t producing. Whatever we gain from those we likely lose spooling up those plants. Solar with batter storage might make sense at the residential level. You can make a battery with sodium too. Lithium is lighter, but that doesn’t matter for stationary storage. Sodium is plentiful. Utility scale solar storage though - someone will have to convince be that’s viable. | ||
| Aesquire |
Nobody is dissing electro cars. We're being realistic, not spouting add campaigns. The math is inescapable, x billion BTUs, watts, ergs, or horse power, you want the existing grid to handle the transfer from dead dinos in liquid form to ( mostly dead dinos in gaseous form ) your wall socket, you need lots more generation. ( yeah, it's old plant matter, fossil fuel will always be dinos... Thanks Sinclair ) Just mandating better light bulbs won't give enough slack. And regulating power consumption? You really want that power over you in the hands of vindictive pricks like Cuomo or Newsom? My mom gets a discount on power with her smart thermostat that lets RG&E ( Local power company known as Rape Grab & Extort ) turn her AC down on hot days. They haven't frozen or baked her yet. But I can easily see you getting up in the morning and your text messages then inform you you have to ride your bicycle to work because ... They didn't charge your car last night... For the children. ( actually it was the mayor's cousin's hot tub party, but you don't need to know that ) Or as you see in Cali, the Governor might not like your tweet about him, and your power might be... Withheld until the crisis is over. ( it's California, of course there's a crisis ) Re: battery storage, you're right, lithium battery tech is for weight conscience applications. But sodium batteries aren't the answer either. Maybe iron acid. They make hydrogen too, so at the big stirage/load leveler battery banks, you just use the H2. | ||
| Court |
And . . . don't forget the regulatory hurdles. We started this new company and the first thing we were face with was spending the last 2 years working on permits. We submitted a 44,000 page document, 200 copies of it and about 40 Chromebooks with everything on them to every local library in the area. Spending Millions a month on attorneys, bats, cricket frogs, turtles, timber rattlesnakes and unintended human remains discoveries. Got stuck on one and finally agreed to buy 61 acres, turn it into a preserve and capture baby Bog turtles, put tiny transmitters on the females and track them back to the nest so we can protect them for 5 years. Everything has to have a NCB . . net conservation benefit. I'm also working on a plan for a submarine cable from Montreal to the Bronx and 94 windmills 12 miles off the tip of Montauk Point. Bottom line . . .if you are going to need a power plant . . start planning about 12 years ahead . . not when the lights go out,. I've ben playing with a new Taycan . . . but just can't make the ICE to electric leap yet. | ||
| Ducbsa |
Plants, typically are designed to be all the way on (100%) or off In the '70's, when I was working on the design of the combustion/turbine throttle controls of 500MW coal plants, they were certainly designed for 30% to 100% capacity. The same was true for nuclear plants that my company designed.} | ||
| Hootowl |
It’s the starting and stopping of thermal plants that is inefficient. Steady state is best. Peaker plants are ideally gas turbines. | ||
| Hootowl |
“ The math is inescapable, x billion BTUs, watts, ergs, or horse power, you want the existing grid to handle the transfer from dead dinos in liquid form to ( mostly dead dinos in gaseous form ) your wall socket, you need lots more generation.” No argument that more generation will be required. However, you are conflating generation and grid capacity. My contention is that more carrying capacity is not absolutely required, since charging occurs during off off peak hours. AC uses more current than charging, and AC demands go down at night. If your grid can’t handle AC loads at 4PM in August, yeah, you’re going to need to add capacity. If you don’t live in a democrat utopia, you probably don’t have that issue. | ||
| Ratbuell |
My contention is that more carrying capacity is not absolutely required, since charging occurs during off off peak hours In theory.... But look at the rolling blackouts in Kalifornia, and tell me you can build a grid based on theory. Court - what's the rule? I know when I did stage rigging for a living, we always built a SWL (Safe Working Load) rated for 2.5 times the actual weight being flown. If the scenery was going to weigh 1,000 lbs, we built to handle 2,500 lbs. And the SWL is always about half of the breaking strength of the weakest link, meaning the weakest link could handle 5,000 lbs - for a 1,000 lb load. Drop one piece of scenery on a national act, and over-building is still a lot cheaper by comparison! (there's three types of rigging - cheap, safe, and fast. You get to pick two). So...do you assume our power grid is "adequate" for all the cars the Left wants to push on us? Or do you want it built with enough headroom, so you KNOW it'll handle the load...and then some? | ||
| Aesquire |
AC loads are only typically lower at night, not necessarily, and we've had many nights in temperate, northern, West/central New York with muggy heat. And the reverse, cold nights in winter, happen almost Always here, and there's a Strong Push to give up natural gas for electric heating. And for us poor peasants past the gas pipeline ( mine ends in Bowshot of my home ) who depend on Propane truck delivery, there's a huge financial incentive to go electric. I sure did. The most efficient air to air heat pump available. And I get a monthly report card from National Grid on my energy use, electric only ( there's no internet feed on my propane tank ) which is why I am able to confidently and truthfully say Al Gore burns more dead dinos in a week than I do all year. So no, electric power excess to charge your toy is actually a temporary and narrowing resource that is local not the rule everywhere. If the 50% increase needed is accurate, and I've seen higher numbers, then any excess today will be a major lack in less than a decade. Like, "no juice for you!" shortfalls. Again, yea! Tesla Cool! But your belief in the Free Lunch of nighttime charging is sounding like you're clinging desperately to an excuse fed you by lying sacks. Remember free cooking grease diesel? That was a short term hippie notion too. The minute it got known there was a potential for profit from it, McDonald's and everyone else went from paying for waste disposal to paying much less for recycling... Locally, the trucks and rendering plant didn't even change, except the bragging signs on the trucks. | ||
| Hootowl |
Cooking oil was a way for cheapskates to get free fuel, not a viable fuel source for the masses. It got a lot of press because they were “sticking it to the man”. “But look at the rolling blackouts in Kalifornia, and tell me you can build a grid based on theory.” That’s a different problem. As I said, they can’t even power their air conditioners, let alone their cars. California doesn't have any problems not brought on intentionally by lefties. | ||
| Hootowl |
I have complete faith that the market will adjust for any shortages of electricity or excess of gasoline. People will buy what makes sense for them, unless the lefties put their thumbs on the scale (which is what is happening in CA). I’m a free market guy. I made a choice. You make yours. Everybody is happy. | ||
| Needs_o2 |
An interesting perspective. https://brandnewtube.com/watch/unobtanium_jLy4nTj4 qajQylA.html | ||
| Ratbuell |
California doesn't have any problems not brought on intentionally by lefties. unless the lefties put their thumbs on the scale (which is what is happening in CA) Um....who do you think is driving (no pun) the Green Nude Eel, the push to end fossil fuels altogether (regulating oil and gas production to death, banning fracking, banning any new pipelines), the push for "renewables" nationwide, and the push away from ICE vehicles to an immediate switch to electrics? "IF" they put their finger on the scale??  | ||
| Hootowl |
No argument there, Rat. My interest in it is not rooted in The Big Lie. It’s just an awesome car. No need to force it on people. |
