Posted on Wednesday, December 04, 2019 - 11:12 am:
"Don't bother trying to con yourself an electric car is good for the planet"
Not part of my calculus. I'm an old school environmentalist, not a True Believer.
"The economy doesn't support it."
Not now, certainly. But costs are coming down. Tesla now rents solar panels in CA, and are working toward providing it in all 50 states. The power savings pays for the rent. That doesn't include standby batteries, I don't think, but those costs are coming down too. Capitalism is awesome.
Posted on Wednesday, December 04, 2019 - 11:14 am:
I'm quite certain that the video I spoke of above is from the "engineering explained" channel. I looked though the videos there, but could only find this one, which touches on some of the points of the other, but not all. The other video focused completely on efficiency, whereas this one ties efficiency to emissions. Enjoy.
Posted on Wednesday, December 04, 2019 - 01:35 pm:
People still have electric heat?
Yes they do. Summer air conditioning is a huge load when people get home in the evening too.
When I need to charge, which is not every day, I plug in as soon as I get home. But it doesn't start charging until 2AM. You see, these new fangled computers on wheels are programmable : ) In fact, the latest update lets you select the time you want to leave in the morning, and the computer starts charging some time during the night, finishing just before you want to leave.
All of that is really cool stuff, but it's also one of the things that makes me think twice about a lot of cars. In many ways, Tesla reminds me of Microsoft. Microsoft was successful by trying to be the first to market with things, certainly didn't care about being the best. Tesla is doing a lot of very flashy, high profile things, that are very impressive. Many of those things are also very unpolished at this point. Like MS, they seem to have an endless line of updates, that break as much as they fix. I actually saw a YouTube video yesterday that addressed the question "who owns your Tesla?". This was done by a lawyer who work in the automotive field of law. While true, you do in fact own the car, Tesla has the rights to what they make available to you. Features like supercharging have been turned off for some people by Tesla without warning. Tesla can do this because supercharging is a service they provide, and they can deem your car unfit for that service at a whim.
They have also been known to refuse to sell certain parts to certain owners. Another YouTube channel has dealt with that quite a bit. He's a Tesla fan, who has rebuilt a number of them at this point, after being totaled. He claims that Tesla, while getting better, will decide on a whim if they will supply you with parts you need to fix your car. This hasn't been too big of an issue yet, because unless your warranty has been voided, all cars they've sold are still covered. That will be changing in the near future though. It will be interesting to see how Tesla treats these customers when they try to fix it themselves, or have an independent garage do it. Even if they will sell the parts, they may deem the car unworthy of certain features and updates.
Then you get into a problem common with many cars these days, but Tesla has really dove in head first. As a car ages, and things go bad, will you be able to get replacement parts when the computer system dies, and essential software to make the car run is built into that computer? The aftermarket certainly isn't going to develop the needed software that, and it would be intellectual theft to down load what the manufacturer loaded. The more cars rely on proprietary computers, the worse this problem will be. Tesla has many, many functions built into a single touchscreen computer. If they won't sell you a replacement, you are stuck with a brick. This isn't specific to Tesla, but it's still unknown if Tesla will be around in a decade.
I hope you don't take offense to the stuff I post on Tesla. I know a lot has negative info involved. Most is a mixed bag though. I see them as a new company with serious teething problems. I hope they make it, but the track record for such companies is not great. History is littered with the failures. Looking at the Tesla truck, I can't imagine it being successful. Can such a young company afford a failure on such a big and visible investment?
Posted on Wednesday, December 04, 2019 - 02:11 pm:
but those costs are coming down too. Capitalism is awesome. yepperdoo!
Electric heat? Heck yes! I use a high efficiency air to air heat pump for primary heat and all AC. The house was built with underfloor hot water and an obsolete ( now ) boiler. Moderately High efficiency for 15 years ago, but I'm also on Propane, which is cheaper locally than fuel oil, but far more expensive than natural gas. That pipe ends 400 yards away, and they'd be happy to run it to my house.
For $50,000. And no, I can't charge my neighbors. I didn't even ask, they made sure to tell me up front.
And the funny part is I get my report card from the power company every month, comparing me to my most efficient neighbors, and the least. I'm mid pack. The low power user, funny enough is the 120 year old farm house that uses wood and propane to heat. The high power user afaik is the mini mansion that's about 16 years old with propane heat, and 4 kids. ( It might be the even smaller ranch than mine, 4 years old, also propane & multiple children, including preteens ) Go figure.
Just a decade ago, an electric car then on the market would not have worked to take to work & back. The Fiskar would, but it cost more than my house. For that price I might as well drive a Phaeton 12 cylinder.
The more cars rely on proprietary computers, the worse this problem will be.
There was a video a few years back, listing "cheap" 12 banger cars. The notion is you haven't lived until you've had that wretched excess of smooth power. The 2 standout bargains are the VW Phaeton, which is highly under rated, insanely detailed, and very expensive to maintain at the dealer. And. The late 80's Mercedes, which is cheap as can be in California, but has 7 computers that run different parts of the car, all lower tech than an Atari, and are German 1980's computer tech aka broken. And no longer made. And more proprietary than the real location of the Amber Room.
I do love the high tech now in cars, but I can't fix it at home, and it's insanely expensive. The bumper mounted radar units, that rust out in the salt belt, the does everything screens? The only way I'd own a brand new car with the cool toys is to only keep it until the free fix it period is over, then trade.
Posted on Wednesday, December 04, 2019 - 03:14 pm:
Patrick, I had a house that had hot water heat in the ceiling fired by an oil burning boiler (as well as the tankless water heater). Marvelously comfortable, hideously expensive. The house ahd no central AC. The oil burner died, forcing the issue. I compared all of the ways to heat the house: wood, coal, nat gas, propane, electric (baseboard and heat pump). The curious result was that when you figured maintenance, efficiency, and fuel cost the $/BTU where nearly identical! It boiled doewn to convenience, so ended up with propane. I had the same thing you have: the gas was a few hundred feet away, and the gas company wanted many $$'s to bring it to me. I replaced the boiler with a Hydrotherm, 97%-efficient unit, and installed an Amtrol Hot Water Maker as a third heating zone. I had Central AC installed, and installed HW coils in the ductwork to replace the embedded ceiling tubing. I could do some heavy-duty dehumidification in the summertime if I chose to spend the fuel costs. My utility bills fell by 50% compared to before...
Posted on Wednesday, December 04, 2019 - 04:45 pm:
“ Features like supercharging have been turned off for some people by Tesla without warning.”
That has, to my knowledge, only happened in cases where the car had been totaled, salvaged, and not inspected by an authorized service center for damage to the battery. To prevent a fire, they disabled charging at high current levels.
Posted on Wednesday, December 04, 2019 - 05:30 pm:
"I see them as a new company with serious teething problems."
Me too. It's interesting to see their solutions to problems already solved by other companies. They clean slate everything. You can see this in their designs. The Volt, for example, follows the format of a gas engine car. Motor up front sitting fairly high in the chassis. The Model 3 motor is way down low in the back, essentially under the rear seat. Tesla doesn't know how to make gas cars, and has very little experience making any kind of car at all, so they don't have any bad habits to shake. They also don't have any experience to fall back on, so it's a double-edged sword. Edmonds says they can shave several thousand off the cost of the car if they'd pull their heads out of their asses regarding how they assemble the body.
Interesting tidbit on the "clean slate" method. The automatic wipers don't use a traditional rain sensor. The car has cameras all over it, and an ASIC computer that is purpose built to analyze video images (around 2400 frames per second with the current generation computer). So they use images from one of the through-the-windshield cameras to determine whether there is water on the windshield. It works. Mostly. But not always. There is also a button on the end of the turn signal stalk that activates the windshield washer pump. The first indent gives you a wipe, the second, a wipe and a squirt. When you press the one-wipe button (one of the very few buttons in the car) the car also sends a screenshot to Tesla. They collect these screenshots of what water on the windshield looks like, and use them to teach the computer what water on a windshield looks like. That update is being pushed now, and I expect to have it in the next few days. The data they collect from the cars drives their software development. The level 5 autonomous driving software is running on all of their cars (with hardware 2.5 and up) it's just not driving the car. It's learning. This is what I would do, and this is what the driver did. OK. I will learn from that. I don't think any other automobile company is doing that sort of fleet based learning.
Posted on Wednesday, December 04, 2019 - 06:04 pm:
That has, to my knowledge, only happened in cases where the car had been totaled, salvaged, and not inspected by an authorized service center for damage to the battery. To prevent a fire, they disabled charging at high current levels.
Sure, that's the corporate line. The one I had just recently heard of I think falls into the salvaged category. The problem he had was that supercharging was working for him. It got shut off during a cross country trip. That's like a sharp stick in the eye. Why even do this though? Are they doing this if you have an accident that doesn't total the car, and you have an independent shop fix it, do they shut off supercharging? More to the point, we know the battery temp is closely monitored and controlled. No doubt that any Tesla that shows a fault in any of these systems will stop supercharging for safety reasons. Please tell me they won't keep supercharging a battery that has a coolant failure! I have a Harbor Freight drill with that feature built into the charger! What's more, the "inspection fee" has been very steep. IIRC it was well over $1,000. That's more of an extortion fee IMO. But why only for a totaled car? What about the person who jumps a curb and dents the battery pack on a rock and never knows the damage that was done? What about the car that was totaled by the GF who found out about the side fling and broke windows, scratched paint and cut up the interior? What about the car that's just old and starting to have things go wrong? That kind of stuff is going to kill the trade in value if people start having their cool features, that are going to transform the world to EV's, suddenly shut off because their car got old.
OTOH, I assume you may be familiar with Rich Rebuilds on Youtube. He recently took his rebuilt salvage Tesla to a charge station and found that it was supercharging? Raises the question, how does Tesla even know to shut off that feature? I don't think the manufacturer is normally told about each car that gets totaled.
So on a similar note, but even more safety related, why do they NOT turn off the self driving feature on a salvaged car? THAT I could understand. It's a far more complex system with lots of sensors located where they can be easily damaged in an accident. I would much prefer a car that burns to the ground in a parking lot that one that takes me into a head on collision at 75 mph. You know what the smell test is, don't you? This one just doesn't smell right to me.
I've complained that to put a heated seat in my Caravan, ( a used car I bought with a beat driver's seat ) I had to go to the Dodge dealer and pay to have them update the minivan build code with their master computers in Detroit. Then get a software update to activate the wiring.
At least I don't have the GM system that lets them shut my car off as I drive down the highway. Or listen to conversations in my car.
I'm not sure the Tesla complaints are much worse. It's a software run vehicle.... Microsoft is a good metaphor. You don't own the computer system. On any new car?
Funny how fast settles science can change. OK, I'm kind of joking about this being "settled science", but I think it's fair to say that there was a consensus opinion on it. Interesting to watch when it's not polluted with politics.
For every idiot Tesla owner taking naps behind the wheel, there are thousands of accidents that could be prevented by fully or partially autonomous vehicles.
The model 3 has a camera inside the car. It is not currently turned on. Its purpose is to record the interior while the car is being driven by someone other than the owner, if the owner chooses to add their car to the autonomous rideshare fleet Tesla envisions. But they've also stated that it could be used to detect whether the driver is incapacitated, automatically steer the car to a safe stop, and alert first responders.
Re dark matter. I was never in the "it exists" camp. Dark matter describes matter they think should be there, but isn't. It was never about actual invisible material. I rather suspect that their math was off when they decided how much matter there should be in the observable universe. Or it could be that all that missing matter is went into black holes, and was lost. There's a theory that black holes eventually evaporate, as their matter turns to radiation that magically appears beyond the event horizon. Mind bending stuff.
This editorial makes an unfounded assumption. That there is any science involved in the editing of the IPCC reports, and not pure propaganda by religious economic zealots.
Dark matter is an imagined fudge factor to make some observations fit a theory. Basically "if theory 6 is correct, the universe is wrong. So we postulate deamons of these characteristics to make the math work" IF theory 7 is correct, then the books are wrong, but the math works out on the observations without imaginary deamons.
In essence, we don't understand gravity well enough to be certain how much we don't know.
Dark matter could be real, if we violate Occam's Razor. Or not real, but we violate part of Einstein's theories.
No matter which theory is correct, some people are emotionally and financially invested in the other.
Best line from Pwnzer's link above Greta’s apocalyptic mass movement is turning millions of young French, German, and European children and teenagers against their own governments, their institutions, and their countries, turning them into a resentful, angry mob.
“Officials and politicians are beginning to speak out because they fear they may lose control over this increasingly dangerous tiger they thought they could ride forever.”
Yes, you mentioned that earlier. Tesla does not support vehicles with salvaged titles. It’s in their written policies. The owner should not have been surprised.
The Party narrative is problematic not just because of the quality of people who believe or profess to believe it. The more significant deficiency is that it doesn’t correspond to reality. You can have millions, even billions, of believers who fervently believe that two plus two equals five, but that means you have millions, even billions, of intellectual cripples who can’t balance a checkbook or perform any other elementary arithmetic function. Or any of the higher operations arithmetic supports—like science and technology.
The climate change debate is instructive. For years people have tried to model financial markets. There’s a built in incentive: incalculable wealth awaits anyone who gets it right even 60 percent of the time. Yet nobody has done so, because financial markets are extremely complex, are influenced by myriad variables, the relationship among variables and between the variables and the markets change, and we don’t know all the relevant variables.
The same things can be said about climate modeling, except with more emphasis, because climate is more complex and has more potentially interacting variables—some of which we undoubtedly don’t know about—than financial markets. Climate models should be considered inherently unreliable, and models that purport to explain and predict climate based on one or two variables laughably so. If we can’t predict financial markets we certainly can’t predict climate. The state of human knowledge and predictive acumen just isn’t there.
Yet, on the basis of these inherently faulty climate models, many of which have already revealed their deficiencies, the world is supposed to reduce its standard of living, embrace radical, costly, and potentially deadly changes in power generation, food consumption, modes of travel, and economic activity, and hand power over to multilateral and global institutions, supposedly the only way with which the predicted consequences can be dealt.
The problem with morons and what they believe is that reality-based non-morons can’t wall them off to live with each other and the consequences of their collective irrationality and neuroticism. They insist we live according to their moronic dictates. Conflict is inevitable. However, the quality of the two sides will be far more important than their quantity.
I'm almost jealous in a sick way. I have sympathy for the families, and can too well imagine the terror of a wave of fire & acidic ash sweeping towards me. ( St. Peter, " Your last words were WHAT!!?? " )
But the bragging rights are horribly attractive. "How'd you die? Volcano? Huh, beats stepping in front of a bus". But mostly I can just hear the sister of a victim destroying a flirting idiot by questioning his manhood in comparison to her kid brother.