| Author | Message | ||
     Court |
I posted this somewhere earlier this evening . . . . . returned minutes later to find some childish drivel. It wasn't disagree or agree. . . just mouthspew about me . . . took none of the facts to task . . . just pronounced it worthless since I wrote it. I've learned that stupidity can be contagious and I realize that in the world of the Internet that even the ill educated and ill motivated, with nothing of value to add, can jump in and ruin a nice discussion. I started to delete this but felt compelled to answer the questions this fellow has asked nicely. If you agree with me . . . dandy and good all over ya, If you don't, ditto. I've no skin in the game, I've no stock nor interest in any past or future ventures. I am not, as I have been quite clear about, an objective voice. I've just seen nearly 200 of my friends loose their jobs 2 weeks before Christmas in the worst economy since the Great Depression. I've been involved with Buell since the days you could go to the factory and watch T.A. or Dano put your bike together. The idea that I'd be objective is pure silliness. Anyway . . . for the benefit of the nice fellow who asked . . . I figured I'd move this here rather than delete it. If I need to delete it I can later. If you disagree, and I expect many to . . . .Buells have always evoked strong emotions . . . Lord knows I've had a stapler or two thrown my way by Erik . . . then by all means share your thoughts and opinions. I'm aware there are a couple dozen folks here with much better facts than I have. But if you feel compelled to toss out the "Court's an ••••••• for writing something I don't understand" . . . . well, talk to the hand but keep the •••• out of here. We now return to your regularly scheduled programming . . . You are not putting me on the spot . . . . . not one little bit. You asked a reasonable question in a polite and respectful manner. You are a seasoned professional in the business of business acquisitions and I'm only a construction worker but let me take a stab. >>>>There's nothing out there in HD's public filings that I saw to support whether or not Buell was making a profit or not. Increasing sales does not necessarily mean positive profit or even increasing profit, and that is the only data point I can see. +++ I absolutely agree. >>>> So, the short answer is no. All I can use to support that statement is hearsay and logic. ++++ My point exactly. The Internet had been overrun with what people "know" about contracts, IP, deals, and so forth. My ONLY point is that it's ALL (not most, but ALL) mere speculation. My favorite is the "7 year law" that everyone talks about yet no one can find . . . >>>>Then again, what data do you have available that says otherwise? ++++ Nothing in particular. My wife, a CPA and Hedge Fund CFO, and I both have degrees in Accounting. We have 10 years of Harley-Davidson annual reports, 10-K's and 10-Q's and I've done extensive research on the background, qualifications, experience and general fitness to serve of the entire board, current executives and backgrounds on the groups that comprise the Top 10 shareholders. Again, nothing in particular. Like doing an Audit a good deal is mere conjecture and PERSONAL OPINION based on assumptions gained from certain facts. I know nothing you can't find out publicly. >>>>>The MoCo as a whole has been generating negative operating cash flow since fiscal 2008. +++++ That is inaccurate. Quoting from the most recent 10-Q (page 5 of 64) -
 >>>>MV is being sold to generate cash flow. +++ Ridiculous. Harley-Davidson will be lucky to sell it.
>>>>>The only reason why HD would buy high and sell low is if they absolutely needed to +++++ Let me present an alternative reason that you'll likely not find in any M.B.A. curriculum (But I will be doing a 3 hour session for my class at Columbia next semester on "Stupid Business Decisions" which will showcase one of my personal ill motivated lawsuits and the HD purchase of MV Agusta.) is pure stupidity. Imagine several ill qualified folks being wined and dined, sold a bill of goods (Claudio Castiglioni is arguably a genius but he's also the world's best as selling a bag of nothing and ending up personally benefiting. More power to him say I) and coming back to Milwaukee proudly proclaiming they now owned a famous, legendary Italian maker of stunningly gorgeous motorcycles . . . well, they did . . .but frankly it was worthless. The King had no clothes. For a closer glimpse compare the current list of HD execs with one from 2 years prior. Even a company that is currently acting a bit foolishly had the common sense to purge some idiots. The story of how some had to be squeezed out is hilarious . . remind me to tell you sometime. Take a look at this and tell me about the favors you think MV Agusta did for Harley . . . be mindful that some of the "gifts" (like increasing Harley's tax obligation) won't show up in the big MV Agusta equation.   >>>> It is absolutely necessary to squeeze as much cash out of the "non-necessary" portions of the company to keep it afloat. +++ Gosh . . .we keep agreeing. Closing Buell contributed not $0.01 toward that end. Be mindful that MOST the costs associated with what is collectively known as "BUELL" are not costs of BUELL MOTORCYCLE COMPANY of East Troy, WI but rather BUELL DISTRIBUTION CORPORATION. If Paul James' salary as Marketing Manager is cut in half as a result of no longer having to market Buell, then I stand corrected. Closing Buell provides not a red cent of additional funding to "concentrate on the core business". IMPORTANT NOTE: I've used Paul James here as an example since he is responsible for both Marketing at Harley-Davidson and at Buell. This is in no way a reflection on Paul or his abilities. In all candor, if Paul had been allowed to follow his heart Buell sales would have approached 30,000 last year. I used his name simply as an example. Not one Customer Service job will be reduced as a result of closing Buell, not one person in dealer relations, not one in Technical Publications, not one person in Technical Support, not one person in Public Relations. The "closing Buell to reduce costs" is absurd on several levels. >>>>>What do I think it's worth? Well I work in business valuation so I could tell you if I had financials and projections available. ++++ Sounds like the same thing one of the HD execs said during the purchase . . . welcome to the wonderful world if Italian Motorcycle firms where often the largest single item on the balance sheet is UNPAID TAX OBLIGATION. >>>>>They certainly won't get near $100 million for it. I think they'd be lucky to get $60 or $70. +++++ Tell me, since you're in the business, if I were your client WHY you'd suggest it's worth $60M to $70M. If you are asking me to write a check for $70,000,000 you have to do better than "that's my guess". I do, however, agree that trying to sell a company who makes motorcycles that less that 1/10th of 1% of motorcycle riders in the world can afford, and who's business model has been described (see above) as "not operationally and financially sustainable," Hilmi said." will require more skill than even Claudio has . . Dave Stueve couldn't sell this. Harley has their work cut out for them. This is their "Big Plan" . . . . read these things as you think of the shuttered General Motors plant at Youngstown . . . the closed down Chrysler plant . . .the General Motors truck plant that used to cover a couple hundred acres near Liberty HD/Buell in Rahway, NJ . . . think of Elkhart, IN with unemployment over 17% and rising . . . and then think about selling $25,000 motorcycles to folks . . . look . . . EVERYONE is being careful . . . and even when unemployment begins to turn around (and it will) I ain't racing out and buying that Porsche just yet . . . Look at this plan, then read the cautionary note before . . .  And in some ways . . . the following seem akin to an amputee climbing a greased mirror . . . Earnings down 71% . . . registrations down 38%   Then this note that nearly infers . . . . that "in order for the plan to work the economy has to turn around tomorrow, debt has to miraculously disappear and the whole world need to go see "East Ride" and come out dying to buy a Harley-Davidson at any price. . .  And looming in the background is Warren Buffet and friends who will likely own Harley-Davidson and straighten this mess out in 2014.   Bottom line is that it's damn tough, as a construction worker, to paint a very persuasive case that Harley-Davidson closed Buell for financial reasons. Harley-Davidson is basically saying that they are betting the farm on the above plan . . . these things HAVE to happen before that debt comes due . . . seem like an odd time to get rid of Buell which:
Frankly . . . . if the motorcycle market for the next 10 years is a submarine . . . Harley had the launch codes in Buell and allowed a couple egos to let the key go down the drain. I may be wrong but I think they just tossed the 200 life vests into the sea along with the key. By the way . . . . and again I'm a construction worker and lack the acute mental faculties of many of the folks here but from a purely anecdotal perspective . . . . if Buell was such a •••••• deal how come it's the ONLY AMERICAN MOTORCYCLE who experienced a sales increase last year and how come two folks, both with a net worth over $1B, called me the Thursday night the announcement was made clamoring to be the first to get a crack at Buell. Harley-Davidson's rhetoric about Buell being any sort of distraction from their core business is pure hogwash. In addition, I think some folks have potentially placed themselves at risk by allowing an asset with value (the Buell intellectual property and products in development) to be cast as "without value" If I were a shareholder (I sold my tiny holdings in HOG that Thursday) I'd be asking questions. Trust me . . . the parts that are "too integrated" . . (the dealer network, access to parts, HD-net and the parts for the air cooled motors) no one wants anyway. Just a "construction perspective". I know a plan that would work for Buell . . . . benefit Harley-Davidson and be an all around consummate "win-win". Ego's preclude reason however. Ask yourself . . . . who wins by crushing Buell? Buell's a no brainer . . . all the folks are talented enough they'll quickly get snapped up . . Erik can mow hay on the farm . . . it's not easy, for me personally, to stomach, but in real terms shutting down Buell is a series of bumps and bruises for the people of Buell . . not life threatening injuries. But . . . I'd not be surprised to see a couple folks who drove this action place the American icon Harley-Davidson in peril. Let's see how their plan works out . . . . . | ||
| Endoman33 |
Court, Ego's and Tunnel vision are very challenging to sway, if not impossible some times. So far the New exe's that I like to call "Mr.HD" have not figured out how to put a dollar amount on passion and personal value in the bikes (Buell) we as customers feel. I am just a dumb a#% Sales guy, but I even know from market research in the motorcycle industry, that Customers are Brand loyal. | ||
| Moxnix |
http://watchyourwallet.blogspot.com/2009/02/buffet t-invests-in-harley-davidson.html A couple of weeks after "Black Thursday" for Buell, I did a little thinkin' 'bout Harley debt and how that might be influencing their decisions. It strikes me that Berkshire and Davis Advisors have dictated, certainly, some of the recent decisions H-D management have made. They are not bikers, but investors who want their money back and a profit on it. That's business. I've a hard time seeing the current business model working in India, unless they include going back to selling little bikes like they did post WW2. I've stopped in a few dealerships, not seeing the traffic as in years past. This can't be good. Those in charge at H-D will do what they are told while living the high life at the top. I'm not so sure an eventual bankruptcy and re-organization is out of the question in the next few years. After all, the debt holders will get theirs and couldn't care less about any "fags." | ||
| Panhead_dan |
It seems to me that it's too late to save the mothership as she spirals down the toilet but.... With some sort of financial help and the right guy at the top, who would replace and adjust upper positions in order to achieve the pre-planned goal of not only survival but of success, it just might not be too late. This is a tall order for sure but it is possible with the right man at the top. Someone like Erik Buell. Someone had to say it. | ||
| Fireboltwillie |
who is John Galt..... | ||
| Richsm2 |
"how come two folks, both with a net worth over $1B, called me the Thursday night the announcement was made clamoring to be the first to get a crack at Buell. " "Now that is something to chew on Elma". | ||
| Lemonchili_x1 |
Can someone explain the increase in "cash and cash equivalents"? It's come from selling some of the HDFS debt, right? Where will that "cash" go to though? | ||
| Gregtonn |
One of the key figures in the rise and fall of HD (and Buell) is Jeff Bleustien. He was a rider and recognized the potential of Buell to assist HD in gaining market share. I believe his retirement in April of 2005 was the beginning of the disaster. Google Jeff Bleustien Harley Davidson and you will find some very interesting reading. G | ||
| Panhead_dan |
April of 2005 is about right, imo. | ||
| Cyclonedon |
Court, we all know the internet is just talk without any backing up the facts, but I keep hearing that it's going to cost Harley-Davidson 125 million just to close down the Buell brand. If that is correct or even close to being correct, that shows lack of leadership from Harley's board of directors. | ||
| Court |
While the figure MAY (I've read it but would need to confirm) be accurate as stated . . . be mindful that a significant portion ($70,000,000 working by memory) is cash and incentives to purge the system of Buell stuff quickly . . . it would include things like those dealer incentives you are currently seeing. What if they'd priced the 1125R at $7,500 instead of $3,995 and tolerated the inventory being depleted in January as opposed to by mid-December? The short answer is I DO NOT KNOW but it appears that a significant portion of the costs attributed to winding Buell down are discretionary (i.e. someone decided to allocated $70M as opposed to $40M). I think most would be surprised to see how little it costs to operate BUELL MOTORCYCLE COMPANY . . . I'm talking about the operations at East Troy. Why . . . HD didn't hang out a sign "For sale . . but all you get is future product and any of the shop equipment and you may never touch any of our records, data or dealer network - MAKE OFFER" is beyond me. I can't help but think if I were a shareholder and saw the Board of Directors allowing the execs to simply rinse something likely worth millions (hell, say only $1M) down the drain while at the same time publicly going on record as having no intention of using any of it in the future . . I'd be asking questions. You can dispose of something for either $0 or SOME $ and you went the $0 route JUST to keep the stuff out of the market . . . If I had 10,000,000 shares and was looking at those ominous debt payments looming I'd damn sure want someone to explain why we spent tens of millions to keep some folks, not in our "core business" (and by definition no threat) threat . . . from earning a living. It's not like there is nothing you can do . . . | ||
| Hughlysses |
Alright Court, that's like the 5th or 6th thread you've posted that statement in. WHAT CAN WE DO??? | ||
| Reindog |
I sold all my HOG also. There are better opportunities elsewhere. | ||
| Panhead_dan |
WHAT CAN WE DO??? If you're not ready to spill it, pm me please. I want to do anything I can. | ||
| Iamarchangel |
I'm not good at these things but here goes: 1. Any company that can't figure out a dep't value is pretty close to toast anyway. 2. They say Buell can't be differentiated but the reports list the value of MV and Buell together. MV has a value. Subtraction should give a value for Buell. Enough for Court and his buds to put a bid. 3. Can't see where it says so, but typically when an investor puts that big a chunk into an entity, the investor also puts one of their guys on the board. (So, now I'm agreeing with Maxnix, well, snowballs in a hot place.) | ||
| Jos51700 |
I'm still trying to figure out how putting all of ones' eggs into the HD basket makes for a potentially stronger HD. I cannot think of an instance where a narrow-focus company like HD would benefit from de-diversification. | ||
| Iamarchangel |
Yamaha music diversified into bikes, etc. Did pretty well for themselves too. Kawasaki did okay too. BMW's doing okay. Bosch is kind of interesting to watch. Like any crash, if you land on just one point, it will likely break, if you can land on many points, you minimize the damage. Of course, you have to manage that. | ||
| Davegess |
He is an interesting post! http://www.badweatherbikers.com/buell/messages/406 2/514355.html?1258235491#POST1647946 | ||
| Lemonchili_x1 |
"WHAT CAN WE DO??? " I'm guessing spread the word is one step - magazines, websites, financial analysts etc. | ||
| Helicon |
Reading all of this is making me hate Harley Davidson more than I already did .... but its also making me start to believe that there may be no hope for Buell. Court, you are usually very optimistic, but I am even sensing from you, that perhaps Buell may be done. Court is there any chance that Erik Buell will have a motorcycle company again? | ||
| Iamarchangel |
I think Court said it earlier, you can fix a lot of things but you can't fix stupid. When businesses entrench, they'll go seven year court battles "on principle", they'll spend millions to save dimes. I think that's what we're seeing here. There's no "white knight" on the horizon. | ||
| Court |
I am very optimistic. | ||
| Court |
. . . . I should add that all efforts at present are focused on the good people of Buell who, in less than a month, will be joining the ranks of the unemployed. Erik's statement, in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, that he had no retirement plans appears accurate. | ||
| Gregtonn |
"Knowledge is power." Keep learning. G | ||
| Rocketman |
Not at all wishing to split hairs on your comments Court, but the only thing you've said here which sounds like it has any surety about it is the good people of Buell, in less than a month, will be joining the ranks of the unemployed. Has me wondering what optimism you harbour if all those good people are to become jobless - or find jobs / employment elsewhere. We've seen this happen with TVR, who were not in some respects that dissimilar to Buell. Since when the Administrators were called in at TVR, many of the low hundreds making up the workforce have found employment elsewhere. Obviously those with specialist skills are the ones that we could say are now in more permanent positions of employment, thus with the passing of time it is unlikely some of these persons could ever be brought back to a resurgent TVR. Of course, it's nothing but another hurdle to jump over if the owner of TVR ever does decide to start up production again, but where Buell is concerned there hasn't been a passing of time. If therefore the workforce in its entirety is to be let go in a month, that implies to me there is not as yet a future Buell motorcycle production going to be happening anytime soon. If the rather tasty looking superbike is as close to production as the pic bantered around BadWeB this weekend suggests, the resurrection of Buell in the respect of building that type of motorcycle seems very unlikely if a new Buell company independent of HD needed to come to market with a new bike. Who I would wonder would build them. Rocket | ||
| Alchemy |
Speculation, I would expect it might be possible that HD will expend some the many millions in incentive money in out-sourcing the Buell parts business. HD will pay for someone who has intimate experience with Buell parts to continue to support the product and will/may provide baseline guarantees as well as selling the existing parts at a terrific writedown. If some with intimate experience of Buell parts could pull such a company together then that surely profitable company could invest some of their profits into other efforts that could have symbiotic benefit from intimate knowledge of Buell parts, well then things could get interesting. | ||
| Court |
>>>Court, we all know the internet is just talk without any backing up the facts, but I keep hearing that it's going to cost Harley-Davidson 125 million just to close down the Buell brand. Good point . . . I should have backed that up. See if this helps . . .  You can see that there is about $70,000,000 set aside for sales incentives . . . these for the big dealer rebates we are currently seeing. Do the math . . . . we were told yesterday that there are 1,000 unsold Buells that need to be moved. I'd say setting aside $70,000 per bike ought to do it. That $70,000,000, by the way, is about about 19.4 X the value of all the Buell property and plant. Harley-Davidson's assets are valued at $9,353,068,000. Buell, at $3,610,000 comprises a whooping 0.00038597% . . . that's right . . . Buell's total plant and equipment makes up about 3/10,000th of Harley-Davidson. If you wanted to reduce your assets by 1% you'd need to eliminate Buell 25.9 times . . . . I hate to use the term ROCKET scientists . . . but this is looking a lot like the product of an accountant who's been in the cheese spread business his entire career and in the motorcycle business less than 12 months. Be mindful that the value of the plant is a mere fraction of what Harley-Davidson is spending to insure they get Buell off the map quickly.  Yep . .. looks like about $3.6M. As you can see MOST costs associated with Buell occur not AT Buell but at Buell Distribution and Harley-Davidson. None of those costs will go away as we sally forth in pursuit of this single minded focus on the Harley rider. No clue as to if I am right . . . nor am I claiming to be . . . heck, I'm a construction worker. But you guys aren't stupid . . . read the publicly files documents for yourself . . . then go back and read Dale Frank's blog, from a "A confidential source with high-level contacts inside Harley-Davidson" that was written a month before Harley-Davidson's announcement . . . Was closing Buell a business decision or a personal "throat slitting"? Dale, presumably based on his confidential insider, never once mentions any business component and the ones stated by Harley-Davidson simply don't hold water. You decide. Did the Board of Directors act in the best business interests of Harley-Davidson stockholders or did someone, with Bleustein and Teerlink gone, simply finally get to carry out their "throat slitting"? Folks are asking . . . . everyone will have to decide for themselves. P.S. - If you are wandering how this impacts you be mindful that one of the "throat slitters" is the very personal responsible for "supporting" Buell for the next 7 years" | ||
| Panhead_dan |
Myself and many others are patiently (maybe not so much) waiting for all this to be distilled down into sparkling simpleness. I have been glued to this whole HD/Buell thing that you (Court) and a couple of others have been teasing out for days now. So far my understanding of the whole thing makes my simple carpenter's mind feel like a ping pong ball. About the time I get a feel for the direction this is headed, WHACK! I'm off in a new direction. I have a great deal of respect for you Court and likewise for the people you are confident with. I will try to be patient (can't seem to do that) until such time as you feel is right to explain just exactly what we (the Buell masses) can do. I will not speculate publicly anymore because I keep finding myself completely off base. I'm willing to help however I can. I have held the phone in my hand twice now with my finger hovering. (yes, to call YOU) Please advise me (us) as to just what it is that we can do. Until then, I'm going to proceed with my quest, that of trying to wear out my Buell. Dan. | ||
| Swampy |
Even the gumball news is picking up on Harley-Davidson: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-Companies-Missing -the-usnews-1232144448.html?x=0 | ||
| Rocketman |
If the rather tasty looking superbike is as close to production as the pic bantered around BadWeB this weekend suggests, the resurrection of Buell in the respect of building that type of motorcycle seems very unlikely if a new Buell company independent of HD needed to come to market with a new bike. Who I would wonder would build them. Seeing as you didn't take the bait I'll proceed further. There's every chance this Barracuda type bike is Buells future. Air cooling is dead through ever tightening laws for 2010 and beyond. Buells future lay not in connection to Harley via their shared air cooled power plant, nor business association once Buells independence is complete. Such paves the way for a liquid cooled outside manufactured engined bike. And Buell already have one of those engines to call upon. Welcome to the new Buell MC. RIP HD derived air cooled V Twins. Mines a Kohiba ta Court  Rocket |
