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Bob_thompson
Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 07:15 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

All conspiracy theories start out with "what if",so, what if HD is somewhat smarter then we think and the corporate accountants knowing full well they had to cut costs, focus on their "main sales culture" and liquidate some assets decided to not sell Buell immediately thereby inducing a run on remaining Buells, as has happened, make additional money from those sales, and then be able to sell BMC at a higher price to a buyer because of a "demand" real or imaginable.

Now, knowing HD I do not think they are that smart but wouldn't it be nice for them to eventually let go of BMC and Erik to a new potentially great buyer, with enough money, and the "right" attitude to resurrect Buell to even greater status in the sport bike field.

Just a theory, and I'm probably dreaming optimistically, but wouldn't it be nice? Hey,funnier things have happened in this world. Let the Phoenix rise. Bob
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 07:23 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Been floated previously.



By me actually. : D


Makes me wonder how many financial write-offs we can expect from HD from bad debt.
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Bob_thompson
Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 07:35 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Sorry Jeremy, I've been reading most of the posts lately and must have missed yours. What exactly did you say and do you think this is even possible?
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Tpoppa
Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 07:54 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Intentional or not...this week was prolly a record for the number of Buells sold. Interest & support are also high. It would be a good time to sell.
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Diablo1
Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 08:15 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Record sales don't mean a thing when looking at a business. The profit and loss statement will show that Buell was a big money loser this year because of the $5000 discount and the costs associated with closing the business. HD just lowered the net worth of Buell if they ever decide to sell it.
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Poppinsexz
Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 08:28 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

Personally, I think it was a dumb-ass knee jerk reactionary shut-down.

Buell releases new bike R
Then another CR
Buell starts getting their own corner in the dealerships
Buell starts really getting involved in AMA
Buell wins first Datona bike class race
Buell finally in adds everywhere
Buell announces new building
Buell shut down.

Why?
H-D borrowing to much at high rate.
H-D giving sub-prime loans to everyone.
H-D is run like typical greedy US corp.
H-D has to much debt.
Kill Buell, take tax rebate.

I think it was a spur of the moment kill with no forthought.
If so then they prob. have no idea how to sell it or what it's worth.

JMHO
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Ft_bstrd
Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 08:29 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

My thought was that they are showing a profit this year and so a write off would be very useful in lowering their net taxable income. Next year, I expect, from the reports we've seen about HD's sub-prime loans nearing default, to see significant write-offs from HD on their bad debt. A sale of Buell for a profit (the purchase price of Buell couldn't have been more than $10M) during a year with significant write-offs would leave that profit tax free.


The incentives given to move the Buells will serve to provide a cash infusion to dealerships. These dealers will be able to move more HDs as a result. Ever dollar spent in incentives only costs HD $.56.


If HD sells Buell for $100M (including the engines sourced from Rotax), it would be the equivalent of a profit of $179M after-tax. I think they will be able to sell it for more than that.


All complete speculation on my part.
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Busterx
Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 08:36 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

My theroy is. Buell wanted to win big time in AMA, couldn't do it with HD motor. Erik convinces HD to put in a Rotax motor to win, HD thinks it's a joke and the bike wins big with no HD motor. HD is pissed and pulls the plug. If you notice they marked down the 1125 first and way lower than the HD powered XB's.

PS pick up my new R this week.
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Lemonchili_x1
Posted on Sunday, October 25, 2009 - 08:50 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

"Many journalists have fallen for the conspiracy theory of government. I do assure you that they would produce more accurate work if they adhered to the co_k-up theory." Sir Bernard Ingham

I think you can substitute big business for government.
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Griff1327
Posted on Monday, October 26, 2009 - 12:41 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

H-D will not sell Buell straight out, atleast not for a good while. If you think about it, by selling buell they would also be selling all of their internal works such as EPC, Talon, etc.

I can see them selling in the future when the new part numbering system is in effect and they can sell their obsolete systems.
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Iamarchangel
Posted on Monday, October 26, 2009 - 02:16 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

You simply can't borrow cash at 15%, loan it out at 4% (with a guarantee) and make money.

Unless you've figured out how to raise the profit margin about 10.5% you're drowning. I believe they lowered all the prices, or discounted, didn't they? (HD finances a $15000 bike: it costs HD $2250 to loan you the money, it costs you $600 to borrow it. It just cost HD $1650 to sell you a bike and we haven't even done the compound interest yet.)

Somebody in HD had no idea of the economy and the depth of this recession. Their customers are taking a major hit and the market won't be back for about 5 years.

It's a complete screw-up. HD probably could have had their employees get consumer loans at 7%, borrow from them at 9% and loan it out at 4%. Whack, but they'd save some money.

There is a complete failure to grasp the most basic tenet of capitalism: i.e., capital.

The only real conspiracy theory is all these incompetent finance people: where did they get their training and how did they get work?
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Rdmwc
Posted on Monday, October 26, 2009 - 07:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

another theory was proposed to me the other day. Hd shuts buell down a month after it wins the ama... (what else would bring more young customers in from the other side?) now, they are going to want one. in a year or two if the economy permits, hd brings buell back. granted buell just lost a few years of r&d. but hey, its one guys theory i thought i would share. personally, i think it was an idiosyncratic desicion!
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Kickstand76
Posted on Wednesday, October 28, 2009 - 04:54 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only) Ban Poster IP (Custodian/Admin only)

poppinsexz, from what i read buell did'nt get the 10 million for the new building. they were to shut down during the months of NOV,DEC. as it turned out they were just shut down
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