| Author | Message | ||
     Court |
I presume everyone is on pins and needles awaiting Friday's announcement? Interesting to note that within the last 24 hours one analyst (in Forbes) has downgraded Harley-Davidson while another has upgraded it from Sell to Hold and moved the target price. I think they are at a very critical juncture in the history of the company and that someone, during a board meeting, needs to read aloud Einstein's quote about solving today's problems. Interesting times, tremendous opportunity. http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/01/20/ap594383 7.html http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/provider article.aspx?feed=AP&date=20090121&id=9504969 | ||
| Court |
Introduction The report is a bit pricey at around $2,000 but here's the index. Harley-Davidson, Inc. and the U.S. Motorcycle, Bicycle, and Parts Manufacturing Industry Executive Summary Company Overview -- General -- Products -- Employees/Executives -- Locations Company Financial Summary -- Company Income Statement -- Net Sales by Segment -- Company Balance Sheet -- Company Statement of Cash Flow -- Key Financial Ratios -- Executive Compensation Summary Company Patents and Technology -- Recent Applications -- Recent Granted Patents -- Patent Classification Analysis -- Patent Regions Analysis U.S. Industry Comparison -- Definition -- Industry Financials -- Industry Global Market -- Industry Income Statement -- Industry Balance Sheet -- Income Statement Benchmarks - Company Against Industry Industry Information -- General - Industry Scope -- Product Market Sizes -- Customers - Pricing Analysis & Downstream Industries ----- Pricing Analysis ----- Pricing Distribution ----- Downstream Industries -- Competitive Landscape ----- Industry Concentration ----- Industry Aggregate ----- Major Players ----- Market Share Ranking Matrix -- Manufacturing and Suppliers ----- Cost Analysis ----- Upstream Industries ----- Inventories Stage of Fabrication Ratios -- Labor and Compensation ----- Trend ----- Production Workers ----- Production Workers to Total Employees Ratio ----- Hourly Wages ----- Production Hours Trend ----- Contribution (Revenue) per Production Worker ----- Annual Wage per Production Worker ----- Production Worker Contribution (Revenue) Ratio ----- Revenue to Number of Workers ----- Labor Productivity (output per hour) ----- Labor Input Index - (total labor hours) ----- Output Index ----- Unit Labor Cost Index ----- Labor Compensation Index ----- Output per Worker Index ----- All Worker Index ----- Human Resources - Occupations -- Establishments ----- Production Capacity Utilization ----- Growth Trend ----- Average Number of Employees per Establishment ----- Contribution (Revenue) per Establishment ----- Establishment Sizes by Number of Employees ----- Establishments by U.S. States Appendix A - Company Subsidiaries Appendix B - Additional Links -- Trade Associations -- Trade Publications -- Trade Shows Appendix C - Industry 4-Year Financial Statement Appendix D - Report Methodology -- Data Sourcing -- Data Collection & Integration -- Data Analysis -- Data Presentation -- Human Factors | ||
| Alchemy |
Down over 60% or there abouts in the last year and paying about a 9 percent dividend. Doubtful the dividend is safe at that rate? It is certainly a good buying opportunity if the sales don't tank. You are in essence buying it at the price it was about 10 years ago. If this is a shallow recession and not a depression this is interesting if it can be held for a few years till things settle a bit. | ||
| Court |
My thoughts precisely. I've adopted, going into 2009, a new strategy. I'm not driving 4 days a week and I am using the $200 I'd be spending on those 4 days, to buy what I feel are "value" stocks each week. When I see something like a Morgan-Stanley or a Harley-Davidson I'm betting (based on almost nothing) that if folks were buying them at $80 a few months ago and no one can point to anything other than "market momentum" for the reason they are a fraction of their value, that they are likely, over the next 6 quarters to rebound. I also feel there is a point, like when HD gets so low, that the probability of it going much lower (I mean if HD goes to $0.00 I'll own all of it) gets very remote. Worst case scenario is that at the end of the year I end up with $20,000 of yawners . . .if they do nothing but go back where they were it could be $100,000. | ||
| Buellgrrrl |
Court, that's precisely what I've been doing- buying up undervalued stocks. I picked up Ford a couple months ago for less than $2, and if HOG drops below $10 on Friday I'll probably buy it. | ||
| Diablo1 |
HD's earnings in the 4th quarter are actually quite impressive, considering the state of the economy. My WAG is the majority of manufacturing companies lost money in the quarter, and manufacturers of motor vehicles lost big $. However, the first quarter of 2009 will likely be worse for HD. | ||
| Two_buells |
You know this really gets me. I just don’t get it! Ok, 2007 net profit was 933m, 2008 net profit was 654m. So net profit was down 279m. The net profit was still 654m, yes, in the black, profit! But it was a 2.3 percent decline in Revenue. Well sure the revenue is down For the full year, wholesale shipments of motorcycles were 303,479 units, an 8.2 percent decrease compared to 330,619 units in 2007. I still don’t get it. If I owned a company that made 654m and employed 1000’s of people. Why is the stock at 10 bucks a share? Ok so the 4th week last year I made $1000.00. This year I made $900.00 in the 4th week of the year. Is that a ten percent loss? Should my personal stock go from 65 down to 10 bucks a share? I still had a steak dinner this week, I paid all of my bills. Is this the way Wall St. looks at companies? Or manipulates stock prices? I just don’t get it. Maybe if I did I’d be working on Wall St. making 250k per year. Any way I'm in it for the long haul and with the rebound I’ll have a nice nest egg I hope. | ||
| Fireboltwillie |
what cut of steak? | ||
| Two_buells |
what cut of steak? only the best cut! I'm a Union employed worker  | ||
| Alchemy |
It would seem the risk in the future of HOG is the financing arm. If I am reading things correctly they seem to have about a billion dollars of bike loans at risk. Folks without jobs won't be able to make payments and will sell or default on the loans. In normal times HD can bundle these loans up and sell them which provides them replacement money to make yet more loans to customers. If they can't sell these loans off the books then they have a problem. This puts some risk in the stock beyond the fabrication and sale of a popular product. To continue to sell lots of bikes there has to be a financing option so how does HD get a line of credit or clear the old loans off the books? If the stock price were higher this would be helpful but it is not and the lower it goes the more the risk and the more the risk the lower it goes etc etc etc. This clouds the future of the company. This is not unlike a microcosm of the larger economy. This is why the Gov't just taking the toxic loans off the books is deemed one plausible method to reinvigorate the economy. The Gov't (us) becomes the sacrificial buyer who buys the iffy loans with a questionable future. In the process it saves HD and many jobs and makes it more likely that the stinky loans it bought might actually be worth something down the road. Don't buy the loans and the worst of all possible things "might" happen. The Gov't buying the toxic loans seems to be the approach right now but I am not sure anyone knows what will happen next. There seems to be a new financial bubble forming in Treasuries. How that imbalance resolves may not be pretty either. Many moving parts and unknown territory it would seem. Optimism and rational hope are very important right now. We need to buy more carefully and rationally but we need to keep buying to keep our jobs and future. So looking at HOG it may be a good buying opportunity at these prices and I picked up a few hundred shares Friday morning. I realize the stock remains a big risk but I think America's love affair with motorcycles will last through these hard times. If HD can somehow write down or sell off these risky loans they will be healthy going forward but the stock could easily go lower still. HD could do something outside the box by "inventing" some novel financing program. I think one of the motor companies is offering to take back a new car purchase if a job is lost within a year. This is innovative and reflects some optimism. HD needs to find a bold American way forward and I think they have a shot at it. | ||
| Court |
>>>Is this the way Wall St. looks at companies? Wall street is the messenger . . . they are buying and selling largely on orders from Ma and Pa in Wyoming and Indiana. | ||
| Two_buells |
'Wall Street is the messenger' maybe I should have said it's the analysts reports manipulating stocks so Ma and Pa are buying and selling I wish I understood this stuff better | ||
| Buellgrrrl |
Alchemy, I agree- the financing operation looks a lot scarier than the actual building of bikes end of the company. What would scare me the most is that we don't know the status of a lot of the loan portfolio that HD financial can't peddle and is now stuck with. Are the payments on that billion dollars worth of bikes up to date? Who knows- I can envision Harleys that the owner hasn't made a payment on in months squirelled away in the garages of foreclosed homes, etc.. Or as a perceptive friend of mine noted, it's harder to repo a Harley than a car because they're easier to hide... And they can be stripped of salable parts and pretty much disappear. Otherwise, being 20% down on Harley sales isn't that bad, given that the big 3 are on the order of 40% down. And Buell is downright amazing- a 20% sales increase in this horrendous market! Maybe it's time to make Erik CEO of HOG, change the name to BUELL(NYSE), and move the Harley sign and the Harleys around to the back door of the dealerships! | ||
| Endoman33 |
Buellgrrrl, I like the way you think! | ||
| Court |
>>>>Maybe it's time to make Erik CEO of HOG Don't get me started. | ||
| Two_buells |
Erik CEO of HOG   | ||
| Buellgrrrl |
And Court for VP of Rider Relations with ChelleM as VP of Dealer Relations! | ||
| Blublak |
Hmmmm.... No, please don't make Erik CEO of HD.. then he'd never have time to design bikes for us to ride.. that would be a bad thing.. One thing, if you've ever heard the story from Erik.. well, it's kind of telling. Paraphrased (since I'm doing this from memory) - "When the guys from Harley came to me, just before they were finishing their buyout of the company (Buell) they asked to see my five year plan. I said I don't have a five year plan. They were shocked, everyone has to have a five year plan to run their company with.. I told them I don't have a five year plan, I have a two hundred year plan..." He said this with a big grin on his face "The look on their faces was.. well.. they were shocked, that's not how people do business.." I wonder.. does the 200 year plan have anything to do with being able to weather a bad financial down turn? Or is it better to make plans for five years then run like a scalded dog? | ||
| Two_buells |
Erik CEO of HOG And Court for VP of Rider Relations with ChelleM as VP of Dealer Relations and I'll drive one of the Demo Trucks or at least run the BattleTrax Events again  } |
