| Author | Message | ||
     Nevrenuf |
if they could bring the price down a little then i could see it. like maybe 2500. | ||
| Jayvee |
Where did the $15K figure come from? I can't find it. Can't see any reason it would have to cost that much. Similar components of XB, added with some standard Sportster stuff. Neither the Sportster Custom, nor Buell XB cost more than $10.5K. Looks like quite a few people buy $10K Sportsters, and even $11.5K Ulysses. Seems like the 1200R could be priced somewhere between the XB and the Uly, and still be profitable. (Message edited by jayvee on January 16, 2008) | ||
| Court |
>>>still be profitable. Ah . . . now we get to the elasticity portion of the task that product planners face. Try your hand at it. .. 1) How much lower do you want to make the price? 2) What margine do you require to allocate (divert) resources (recall HD was at capacity and could not make additonal motors for Buell .. ergo the Helicon) 3) How many . . . if they were your dice to roll, would you tell the Line Foreman to build for you? 4) Where would you ship them? I'll help you out . . this is from the Ducati press conference 2 hours ago.
Us construction workers are fascinated by this stuff. . . | ||
| Wile_ecoyote |
Thank you Court for the education. Had no idea the price would be that high. Now if it were around the 10k mark I could see it. We need to address another side of this coin, why is it so costly to build? Or is it that HD would like to keep the margin of cost per unit vs retail price that swayed? I realize that they are in business to make money, but do you make alot from one guy or a little that adds up to alot from many? Basically it comes down to one thing for me, it has the look I like. HP? Maybe Buell should help them out in that department. That bike with 95 or so? Perfect. Guess I'm back to where I was, a Storz streetracker with the X1 motor. | ||
| Court |
>>>I realize that they are in business to make money, but do you make alot from one guy or a little that adds up to alot from many? What you are describing is what an Economist would call the equilibrium for marginal cost and marginal demand. I'll spare the discussion . . . but suffice to say that if you were going to make 500 at $10,000 units and had a $1,000 margin on each you'd gross $500,000. What if you found out there was a huge mental block (there is) to motorcycle purchases at $10,000 and at $9,500 demand would support 2000 units? Gosh . . that's $500 margin x 2,000 . . whoa . . I just doubled my gross profit by lowering my sales price. It gets long and involved but this is done in GREAT detail for every bike early in the development cycle. It helps that there is a huge crocus of data about how motorcycle buyers behave and we are. . . even we we can't always agree. . .a VERY predictable lot. At $9,500 . . I'd be interested. | ||
| Madduck |
Court, Thats the beauty of the CVO operation, rip off a few hundred people at an inflated price to bring an option set throught the approval process so you can move on to higher volume for normal people. Watch 18 in front wheel move from CVO Road King onto everybodys wish lists for their touring bikes. Gotta see it to want it. | ||
| Warlizard |
I am amazed at all the attention for such a sorry looking bike. They could have used the money developing it to bring back tubes. They s/ scrap the whole bike and put out an SE version of the Sporty. Paint it COMPLETELY black, (exhaust,rims-EVERYTHING). Give it 85+ HP, tweak the suspension, some SS cables. Toss in a DECENT seat, a Python or Bub style 2 into 1 and price it under 12,500. If my 2005 1200R wasn't lacking in so many areas, I w/ still have it. Have to thank Harley as it allowed me to own the X1, which will be all I ride. Let the Harley crowd have the XR1200, it's not for tube owners-IMO. | ||
| Cityxslicker |
Where do people get the 15k ?... Maybe donor bike, paint and 12500 in accessories. It adds up FAST. http://www.storzperf.com/XR1200_pl.html I do not know how many units they sell, but they have been in business for over 25 years making performance parts and kits for the XL. Limited edition performance on the XR750 bike would probably be on par with the numbers of VRSCR as it would hit the same price point. (THAT bike was hot locally, if not with the main stream press) It would not be a beginner bike, and shouldnt be a CVO. The problem with CVO is that they want to drench everything in heavy decorative CHROME. Every damn part in the catalogue that is chrome gets on the bike; they need the larger displacement to carry their chunkier footprint. If they build the XR1200, I would buy it, I am even prepared to fly to Europe to get one.  (Moscow is close enough to Europe for me) | ||
| Italicus |
xr 1200 (Eicma 2007 Milan)   | ||
| Cityxslicker |
That thing gives me needs. Stubbed toes be damned | ||
| Nevrenuf |
great pic. | ||
| Wile_ecoyote |
Yep, I still like it. | ||
| Jos51700 |
The $15,000 figure is based on the 7655 GBP (British Pound) amount found on the Harley Europa website, converted to Dollars. Day to day it varies, but was $14993.08 the day I checked. I'm curious how much of that is stricter EU emissions equipment cost, and shipping across the ocean. I'm sure they have to certify everything from turn signal lenses to speedometer accuracy to ship over, as well. I'd think that if the EU would pass it on emissions, then California should too, but I know the Motor Company would have to recertify it for stateside anyways (recert=$).... | ||
| Cityxslicker |
They build it, I will get one into the damn country, there are ways of getting around alot of the senseless customs regamorall. Of all the stuff that we have imported, over HALF of it they said that we originally could not do.... and now they just let it pass because of a stamp on the manifest. It can be done. It aint cheep, but it can be done. Ideally Harley builds that, Buell comes to table with a Dirty 450 DS/SM and I get a full happy garage. | ||
| Jayvee |
That didn't take long! That's a WAY better seat, the pipe could lose exactly 1 muffler. Wave rotors, finally a Harley that waves. Is that the stock swingarm? I don't remember that. $15K is european pricing? I would have said should be cheaper here, but the dollar is sinking fast, hard to say based on that. | ||
| Court |
>>I'd think that if the EU would pass it on emissions, then California should too That's inaccurate. What you are referring to is known as a Piggyback Certification. Some states recognize this if an item such as a motor, exhaust or whatever has been previously certified and is used in a similar application with similar weights and no change in final gearing. That's not exactly right but you get the idea. Harley-Davidson stock, as you already know, was downgraded yesterday afternoon. It's going to be interesting to watch their strategy in the new year or two. They've been saving boat loads of cash for a rainy day and it's about to pour. I think the product lines are capable of changing. I'm less confident in the ability of some of the folks who have Peter Principled their way to executive roles. "Chrome it and rake the front end" ain't cutting in the next 4 years. | ||
| Jos51700 |
I was referring to piggyback certification. I was saying that California, being both the template for emission guidelines for the rest of the states, and a pain in the ass, would probably not allow that. Most states would accept EU emission certs, but I don't think California would. I think that's what you said, too, Court. I have said for a long time that I wouldn't be surprised to see an Enron-type scandal coming from the Motor Company in the next few years. Jeff Bleustien has dodged a suit accusing of the same thing that sent Martha Stewart to prison once already. I can completely see the used Harley market falling out, too. If the word starts circulating that they aren't worth what they're worth, and the people that bought, not as hard-core riders but as it's-the-cool-guy-thing, will realize it's not the cool-guy-thing anymore, then they start selling off. Once the market supply increases, the price drops further and it's not as exclusive anymore, and the cycle of depreciation increases further. Of course, the more used Harley's on the market, the harder it is to sell a new Harley, especially when the value isn't perceived to be what it used to be. I think this has happened to a small degree, but I think it could do so extremely rapidly and uncontrollably with very little provocation. | ||
| Mikej |
"They've been saving boat loads of cash for a rainy day and it's about to pour. I think the product lines are capable of changing. I'm less confident in the ability of some of the folks who have Peter Principled their way to executive roles. "  Does Scott Adams ride a Buell? | ||
| Court |
I'm not sure that CA is the template, but they may in fact be. CA does not recognize piggy backing. Bleustein did indeed fend that off and although I have no knowledge of what happened (the cause) it's clear that the stock took a meteoric rise . . . folks exercised options en masse. . . and the stock has declined since. Cause and effect? That's likely a stretch . . . there remains such a thing and good and lucky timing (which I thrashed and my wife hit last week) in the market. HD challenges, and I prefer to call them challenges as opposed to problems, are much bigger and complex than the simple stuff that makes good tabloid copy. I'm a huge optimist based on some folks having the wisdom and gutz (intentionally spelled with a "Z", thanks Bob Lutz) to throw out a couple people who have taken an "accidental" (I'd concede that's a bit harsh . . . but they do need to go) ride to the top. | ||
| Ratbuell |
I'm just worried (as a dealer employee) about when or even if HD is going to notice they are a season or two behind the "trends". The Rocker? Should have been on the road in '06, not '08. Nightster was pretty close in timing to the 'bobber craze', but it wasn't as involved a project either. They're trying too hard and they're missing the proverbial boat. They (HD) also need to realize the market has changed dramatically since even 2003. No longer are there ten buyers for every bike. Now, there are four or five HDs for every buyer, and that's not including other marques. The market is flooded, motorcycles are less of a novelty now with fuel prices where they are, and the weekend warrior is beginning to go by the wayside due to the economy (what do folks give up first in uncertain times? toys...). More folks are buying motorcycles as transportation, and the market needs to cater to that. Yes, the CVOs will continue to be popular among the "tiffany crystal" crowd - I'm gonna buy it, buff it with a diaper, and never ride it - but those are a very small portion of the market. There are more folks out there who want something economical, functional, and comfortable for transportation. I think HD needs to re-analyze their positioning in the marketplace. If they want to keep the margins they have been carrying for the last few seasons, they need to cut production and raise demand. They should reduce the number of models, there's just too damned many right now. P&A can take a Softail that's "almost" what someone wants and turn it into the "perfect" bike. If they don't want to do that, they have to accept the fact that their margins are going to drop. Dealers are blowing out bikes to keep numbers up; customers are shopping around and demanding blowout pricing on not only leftover bikes, but brand new current models. The worst part (for a dealer and for the Motor Company) is, the customer is getting their blowout deals. We all know what that does to the brand value... HD can be Chevy or Dodge - accessible, omnipresent, and middle-of-the-road priced; or they can be Rolls Royce - exclusive, huge margins, and hard to get. I don't claim to know enough about the upper workings of management at HD...but someone needs to choose, and the company needs to go with it. Buell....they just need to build more bikes so we can branch out on our own and I can focus on them instead of working with HD's as well! I know Buell wouldn't be where it is now without help and an influx of cash from HD...but I think we're "all growed up" now and ready to move out of mom 'n' dad's house. Maybe a beginner twin - think Blast with highway-safe power levels - a sport tourer, and a full-faired true race version of the 1125r to round out the family. I dunno. I'm rambling now, I need to go out and shovel snow  | ||
| Jayvee |
Well, could be on a parallel track with 'peak oil', along with it we have 'peak Harley'... Lot's of layoffs, out-sourcing, no housing starts, etc. Baby boom is starting to retire just as their 401k plans tank due to stock market, can't sell the house to downsize because the housing market also tanked. Sell the Harley, the used market I can see the prices coming down right now, on Craigslist. People selling their 'lots of chrome, loud and fast' bikes to make their house payment or whatever. One could construe a scenario that's a 'perfect storm' for Harley to slowly sink back to where it was in 1985 or so. My 401k has lost $66K since last summer, and it's a conservative mix. "Only on paper", until I retire, then it's real money. H-D is definitely over-capacitized right now, remember when the showrooms had just a very few bikes? Even like 2 or 3? Now they are overflowing. Their profits are going to fall regardless. I just don't think the China and India market for HD will be that big. | ||
| Ratbuell |
I think if HD changed their approach, or their "image" as it were, they may be able to shift things. But they'd have to change theory, too. Make them more accessible, easier for "everyman" to get. Keep the numbers up and the pricing reasonable. Expand the ownership from "bad-ass bikers" to "people who want a motorcycle (built in America)". Bank more on quality and durability (they actually are pretty damned reliable) than on exclusivity and image. What was that ad campaign in the '60s? You Meet The Nicest People On A Honda? With fuel costs doing what they're doing, bikes need to become valid transportation, not just costume jewelery. I think the market will make that point on its own; if HD is smart, they'll be ahead of the market instead of just reacting to it. Dammit. I still need to go shovel snow....grrr. | ||
| Jayvee |
You know, that valid transportation thing is very good point. It would be useful, for example, if I could just ride over to the store to buy milk or something, but for a 2 mile trip, I have to let the bike warm up longer than it takes me to get to the destination. Add the riding gear and the limited carrying capacity, it's not worth it to fire up the Buell. Bicycle is probably faster, and no gas at all. | ||
| Ratbuell |
For a 2 mile trip, I just go. Not like I'm going to hammer it between here and the store. Start, glove and helmet up, ride below 3500rpm. It 'heat cycles' itself while you're at the register inside, all that engine heat soaking in without any oil circulation. Worst part about short hops like that is remembering the battery tender when I park it again I know. The diehards and techies out there are going to scream bloody murder about my abuse of my machines, but been doing it for years on my FLHP and about a year on my S2 without puking parts or oil. | ||
| Nevrenuf |
it is a lot easier on a fuel injected opposed to a carburated m2. i don't know of any car that isn't fuel injected now and how many people actually wait for their cars to warm up. | ||
| Cityxslicker |
two miles to the corner store is a half an hour ride if you go around the block the long way ;) The only time my truck gets driven, snow, ice, & dump runs. I would have a garage full of bikes if Buell and Harley would just build the ones I want. | ||
| Ratbuell |
People don't warm up their cars for the cars' sake...they warm them up so the heat comes on. Please. They're cagers.  And I dunno if it's because my bikes rarely sit, or what...but all three are carbureted and none of them ever fight back against a shorter-than-recommended warmup. (Message edited by ratbuell on January 18, 2008) | ||
| Jos51700 |
RatBuell, I definitely identify with your POV on the Rocker and Nightster. There was a time when HD set alot of the trends in motion. Now they're trying to catch up. In my opinion. | ||
| Cityxslicker |
ANY news on the XR1200 from the Dealer Meeting? Inquiring minds want to know.... | ||
| Kdkerr2 |
Harley traditionally does not do sport bikes like the XR1200 because back in the 70's they came out with the Sportster XLCR and it was a disaster. Some dealers had them sitting in their showrooms for 4 years or longer! Most folks who did buy them stripped off the XLCR hardware and fitted them with more traditional gear. If you find an XLCR with the original equipment nowadays they want a small fortune for it because they are so rare. After the XLCR debacle Harley came out with the XR1000 which was an even worse debacle! I believe it was after that that Willie G. swore Harley would never build another sportbike. That was the reason for their Buell Subsidiary. The reason why the XR1200 is not for sale in Amerika is because it won't sell! That's the bottom line! It will sell like hotcakes in Europe or Japan but not here. KK |
