The best way is to take the average of the total deaths compared to total population for those 3 years. So the total deaths is 8.4M and the total population is 976.014M. Average is 0.86%. Multiply that % by the 2020 population to get a projected number of deaths and compare that to the actual number of deaths.
This is just projections and math ... Avg population growth for those 3 years is 1.916M. So that puts 2019 at 329.08M and 2020 at 330.9999M.
0.86% of 330.9999M is 2.8477M. If the deaths are greater than that and the 330.9999M 2020 population estimate is accurate, that means the % of deaths increased from 0.86%.
BTW, the death percentage in 2017 and 2018 was increasing. So the average of 0.86% is actually less than the percentage in 2017 and 2018. From a trend %, you'd probably be justified to weight 2017 and 2018 higher pulling up the average and thereby increasing the death % from 0.86% to something like 0.863% or so.
If you're a conspiracy fan... CCP agents could be responsible for blowing up the drug factory. Why? To further ruin the Western economy and kill more enemies with Pooh's Breath. Obviously.
Or a leaky pipe.
The statistics idiocy from the CDC? You don't take a 3 month rising trend and average it to predict next month. You plot the curve and guess if it will change.
So any legit prediction will have a low-middle-high trio of numbers. If the trend flattens ( so the same as the last month ) If the trend continues ( so more than the last month ) If the trend accelerates ( so lots more than the last month )
A lower than the last month prediction needs a good rationalization of Reasons the trend reverses. There could be a good reason, but without telling you what, it's just unjustified.
What’s going through my mind today is that a $2.6 trillion stimulus package was passed, and through this magnanimous effort some, not all get a $600 stimulus check. But, even if everyone in the US (330 million people) got $600, that would be $198 billion. Hmmm. Something seems off here. OK. Let’s make it everyone gets $6,000...that equals $1.98 trillion. Wow. So, a little more math gives that the $2.6 trillion should give each person a little less than $7,900. But instead each gets $600, leaving $7,300 per person alive in the US being spent elsewhere on “stimulus”. Oh, and by the way that is all debt that we the people must repay. Nice work, politicians. Real nice. Oh and these people of course already got their vaccine because they are so important. I guess the phrase for this season is “Baaaaa, humbug”. H left out because we are being royally fleeced.
The "Nancy delayed Pork bill pretending to be about Covid-19 relief from Tyrants" is a massive screw job. But other than the lie her "side" ( And Republicans wanting to be seen as generous ) gives a darn about Covid-19 except as an excuse for theft of power, it has little to do with physical disease.
To be fair, there are mixed opinions on the Covid exploitation bill and illegal substitute for a budget, which are actually multiple emergency spending bills.
For those in fear for their lives, and Congresscritters tend to be old rich and medically complicated, so it's a rational fear, some wait for the actually important hea!th care workers to go first, others rationalize they are actually important.
I'm not going partisan by accusing hypocrites of being ego monsters. It's the mental illness that Rules in Congress. Hollywood too. I EXPECT rationalization excuses from them.
I'm not onboard with the idea that anyone should be denied a vaccine for political reasons. Even the CCP paid scum who early on accused Donald of racism for trying to limit travel from the Chinese biological warfare zone. I'm all for impalement, by this time in the selection process, but I'm a bit of a traditionalist. ( joke! Save the Trees! )
Otoh, everyone who has pushed fear of the vaccine for political reasons, and are hypocritical lying scum who are demanding the vaccine for themselves? they need to be in a control group? Or joked about, at least.
If they properly enforce it, and deport immigrants from the Coasts from the Republic, it would indeed save lives. I'd expect retaliation, though. Newsom may ban overflights of satellites launched in Texas!
And I now understand why CNN is now 37% video of people getting shots.
I also liked the "vaccine to prevent the Covid-19 vaccine side effects." article.
Reminds me, Viagra can cause blue vision anomalies in certain genetically inclined individuals. So... There was a joke that they had a cure for the temporary blue vision, but it's side effects included impotence.
Doctors, EMTs, Nurses, etc. have rough senses of humor.
The other side to that debate is, if you have the vaccine, you cannot be infected. Therefore, you should pose no risk either to yourself (catching it), or to others (spreading it).
The REAL debate, however, is this: when will they be willing to let go of the power they hold over us, by locking us down and making us wear masks, keeping us home, keeping us "socially distant", keeping us out of work, etc?
Personally? If I have to get the vaccine (apparently "essential" workers are in phase 2 for receiving the shot), my mask is going in the can. They can kiss my ass if they don't like it. I am SO sick of this bullshit.