| Author | Message | ||
     H0gwash |
I think a good fist step towards stopping the virus is slowing it. The virus has slowed enough around here that restaurants are opening up to increased capacities. | ||
| Tpehak |
I don't wanna die | ||
| 86129squids |
Not sure I want to live forever either. We humans have learned of entropy, which affects all things. Everything has a "use by" date. I've read several sci-fi novels that address scenarios where we go beyond a normal human life in various and sundry ways. Not sure what it'd be like to become a perpetual human "re-tread", nor a disembodied entity. TP hack, it's always amusing to see that you edit your shortest, simplest, and most inane comments. At least you can type, unlike Ebeaammeme. Derpley derp. | ||
| Chauly |
One of my best mechanics just lost his wife Sunday. 62 years old, heavy smoker in years past, three heart attacks. Pretty much a stacked deck, I'm afraid. It still hurts to lose her, though. | ||
| Ratbuell |
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/rick-moran/2 020/10/22/italy-did-everything-fauci-recommends-no w-they-have-record-breaking-virus-numbers-n1078894 | ||
| H0gwash |
Italy's restrictions were not all followed by Italians, not unlike here. | ||
| Tpehak |
You know that second wave is usually more devastating than first, right? | ||
| Ratbuell |
More devastating than a 99.98% survival rate? That's a pretty low bar, there...maybe only 99.7% will survive this second wave. Oh, the horror. | ||
| Ducbsa |
https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/23/of-course-new -york-city-is-a-ghost-town/ | ||
| Aesquire |
https://xkcd.com/2376/ | ||
| Panhead_dan |
I have noticed that there may be a clue as to how to beat this virus... Back in March, I was sent to work on some doors at a school. I was assured that the school had been closed for 3 weeks and cleaned so no chance of catching the plague. At this time, we were on lock down except for essential services. When I arrived, there was a hundred kids inside playing basketball. The doors I was to work on were the main gymnasium entrance doors. No masks, no nothing on those kids. I ended up with the covid. My point is that kids are going to play with other kids no matter what and that scenarios like the one I described were probably happening more than we realized. Kids are not wearing masks and rather than washing their hands, the tend to prefer picking their noses. I see kids running around all over, in groups with no masks. Do you see where this is heading? When I was a young kid, what my parents did when the neighbor kid caught the chicken pox or whatever nasty bug was going around was to send me to the sick kids house to visit. Sometimes it was organized like a party kind of a thing and a bunch of neighborhood kids were there. The logic that parents used was that a slight exposure would get our immune systems producing antibodies against the virus de jour before we got a large exposure to it. This did work well as I recall. We didn't get sick and that virus just fizzled out. Just this morning I got to looking at the CDC site regarding incidences of covid in kids and found some very interesting info. It seems that the current statistics are 165 infections in adults per 100,000. In kids it's either 8 per 100,000 or .8 per 100,000. I can't recall. Either way it seems significant and tends to prove out my theory which is that in order to beat the covids, we're going to need a little exposure to it. We need to use our own defenses against it and maybe we should have been doing that all along. It seems possible that the whole thing could have been yesterday's news if we had. Maybe. I'm NOT suggesting that everyone should stop wearing masks and washing hands. I'm not even suggesting that we should expose ourselves even a tiny bit. I am trying to get some opinions from others about this and if it seems plausible, maybe we should find someone at the CDC and talk to them about the idea. Or maybe a doctor. I don't know. What do you think? Dan. | ||
| Mnscrounger |
Herd immunity will definitely happen, this virus is not that big a deal for 99+ percent of us. The problem is it is absolutely deadly to a large section of vulnerable populations. We know who a lot of these populations are, but some perfectly healthy people outside those groups have also died from this virus. You're right that which doesn't kill you makes you stronger, but your asymptomatic illness might very well kill someone you care about, without your even knowing you were a carrier. If we did nothing this virus would run it's course through the US population and we'd have it behind us in a few months. Unfortunately the early estimates were it would kill off about a million or two people in doing it. (Mostly old and feeble so if your young and healthy, who cares right?) Earlier this year, in frustration about the mask debate, Dr. Faucci said something to the effect of " Do we really need to start trending a a #dontkillgrandma Tweet to get people to take this seriously?" Until a vaccine is approved and widely distributed, "flattening the curve" to prevent overwhelming the ICUs with demand for ventilated patients is probably the best option. It sucks but it's all we have for now. | ||
| Panhead_dan |
If the vaccine is like many others, (a small dose of the virus) it's the same thing I am talking about. I am not talking about herd immunity as I understand it and I'm not talking about letting the virus run it's course either. (Message edited by panhead_dan on October 26, 2020) (Message edited by panhead_dan on October 26, 2020) | ||
| Hootowl |
The “curve” was flattened during the 14 day lockdown. We are in something like month 7 of the 14 day lockdown. It was to buy tine to distribute equipment and get our supply chain in order. Lockdowns serve no purpose, medically, at this stage. | ||
| Sami |
"We know who a lot of these populations are, but some perfectly healthy people outside those groups have also died from this virus." By definition, perfectly healthy people do not die from this virus, or any virus for that matter. I don't mean to downplay what you are saying, only to emphasise that perfectly healthy people are not at risk of dying. Unless they were hit by a bus while having the virus, but then the bus caused their death and not the virus. | ||
| H0gwash |
From https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/cdc-frieden-covid- 19-protect-vulnerable-virus-spread-young Getting enough people infected to achieve herd immunity would come at a terrible price. With less than 15% of Americans infected, there have been more than 220,000 deaths from COVID. To get to a 60% infection rate would mean at least half a million more deaths in this country. And herd immunity might require even more than that. | ||
| Panhead_dan |
no one has suggested herd immunity. herd immunity bad. | ||
| Tpehak |
The second wave of toilet paper deficit is coming! | ||
| H0gwash |
a slight exposure would get our immune systems producing antibodies against the virus de jour before we got a large exposure to it. It seems to me your idea above is a method to expedite herd immunity. IMHO light exposure is certainly desireable over heavy exposure, but that seems a difficult thing to calibrate in the real world. | ||
| H0gwash |
TOILET PAPER FUTURES ARE UP | ||
| Crusty |
The second wave of toilet paper deficit is coming! You'd better duck and cover! | ||
| Aesquire |
The "slight exposure" idea is how vaccines work. And "attenuated" vaccines work by taking the infectious virus and baking or irradiating it to "kill" it, preventing reproduction, hopefully! while showing the immune system an example to start producing the multiple parts of a defense. The infection party business isn't new, and works, Hopefully! by counting on rug rats being little germ factories with hyper active immune systems. Risk is high, depending on the disease. Chinese Super cold 2019 release aka Covid-19 is especially deadly to oldsters and not too bad with children, so on a relative scale of risk... Not a great many kids would be killed by such parties. But some will. How many kids do you tolerate dying, before you consider it unwise? That's intentionally provoking, yes, and true. There is No Perfect Answer. "Zero" is unrealistic, to the point of fantasy. And any random number you pick just gets people upset. "Up to 37 dead children is acceptable to me to potentially save hundreds, but 38 is wrong!" Is a nonsensical idiocy. somewhere between "it's in the hands of Baal" and "shoot everyone who approaches far enough away so the pink mist doesn't drift on me" is the rational attitude. Exactly where on that spectrum? Good luck. | ||
| Whisperstealth |
I'm suggesting herd immunity. I'm all for it. If it takes 60% infection rate, so be it. The only way to get over this thing, is to go through it. It's gonna cost lives, pure and simple. This country is over if it doesn't fully open up. And soon. How many did we loose in WWII? We need to have the same mindset. | ||
| Hootowl |
“With less than 15% of Americans infected” I don’t know where you got that number, but someone pulled it out of their ass. Unless we achieve 100% testing, there is no way to know what percentage of the population has been infected, given that the majority of cases are asymptomatic. | ||
| Tpehak |
With coronavirus it will be huge luck if even 1 kid will survive at the end of the pandemic. If this pandemic will last at least 150 years nobody among current kids will survive. We need to make sure we reproduce kids faster than coronavirus kills them. (Message edited by TPEHAK on October 26, 2020) | ||
| H0gwash |
In the Fox News story linked to the quote, the words "less than 15%" are linked to the following article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/ PIIS0140-6736(20)32009-2/fulltext | ||
| Mnscrounger |
I'm definitely NOT advocating any lockdown..ever. What I am saying is until there is a vaccine, or herd immunity, each of us needs to be mindful of the circumstances of us and those in our lives, and how our day to day interactions out in the world can increase our exposure risk. We then need to take precautions when interacting with those more vulnerable to this virus. I leave it up to us as an individual responsibility to those we care about. I am not deeply concerned about getting the virus myself, but I would not want to be a vector for it to get access to my 75 year old, (but still independent)mother, or my wife's parents. I still visit all regularly, we just sit father apart during the visits. | ||
| Chauly |
Just lost another friend. 62, some health issues, his wife is fine. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/follow-science-1 2-million-covid-deaths-edition Waiting for the second wave. In the U.S. Of course, I accept E.U. figures unquestioned. ( I assume leftists lie. I seldom lose that bet. ) Chinese government figures? Whatever the reality is, it is not that. If case counts go up in line with testing counts, there is no actual increase. And you need to know the error bars. How wide? How uncertain? I'm no epidemiologist, but I did get paid to do statistics. The error rate for testing is important to know. We, Or at least many, expected a rise this fall back in early spring. It was promised! There's a spike in flu every fall, just before the New Flu that travels almost always out of China every year. Why? Seriously, feel free to list the "acceptable" reasons! Not for Why New Chinese Flu? That's well known. Their premedieval agricultural sector with pigs and chickens raised in extreme close proximity to human homes, and lack of "modern" running water/concrete floors/feces removal means dried feces gets turned to dust & inhaled by farmers, family, other villagers. ( neighbors to pig farms here complain about the pools of waste. Often now covered to collect methane for power generation. Not dried powdered feces. ) Animal intestinal flu inhaled then, sometimes, (every dang year ) selects for mutant strains that can breed in humans. That's understood. No... Why does the existing, "last year's flu" get a second wave in fall? Mutation? A Secret Cabal of used Kleenex collectors that use drones to scatter shreds over the World Series? ( hey, it makes as much sense as any Senator's press handout ) I suspect A root cause is Sun exposure, sudden reduction. The sudden change in naturally produced Vitamin D? That would cause a dip in immune system activity. Or it could be diet. But the switch from leafy greens to root vegetables common in Northern Fall doesn't apply in the U.S. with our food imports. Blame Daylight Savings Time? There's a lot we don't know. ( & severe denial about that reality ) | ||
| Tpehak |
It is difficult to embrace but we just need to admit 50-60 years for human is new norm in this new coronavirus era. Sure you can extend your life over 60 years following complicated rules with masks and social distancing just like prior coronavirus you could extend your life over 80 years following complicated rules and discipline. |
