| Author | Message | ||
     Aesquire |
 Whatever... Florida law allows/requires publication of all arrests, giving the false impression that there are more crazy/stupid people than other States, which don't get the publicity. Otoh, Florida is a retirement State and therefore the surviving crazy from the Northern States creates a distillation of crazy there. On the gripping hand, no matter how fair it is to call Florida residents stupid/crazy, the surge in cases there appears to be because of vacationers from elsewhere. Likewise, the Spring Break surge was out of town folk that converged on Florida, acted like typical horny drunken teens, then spread disease back to their homes and families. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-florid a-spring-break-location-data-spread-social-distanc ing-2020-3 Which can't be blamed on Florida residents. And I will add, since I've already tweaked Gregtonn for complaining about your insulting Floridians, that your insult didn't put you in the best light. Mean spirited logical fallacy like that not only does not support your viewpoint, it poisons others to anything right you may have to contribute. As I told Gregtonn, you get an auto lose, since you failed to argue from logic and facts, and "cheated" in a manner that hurts your reputation. Which is sad. I think you have a lot to contribute and would much prefer to respect your intellect and compassion. Sorry for the swerve off topic. And, sure, I even agree Florida is nuts. I'm a non native New Yorker, where a lot of crazy is born, indulges itself, then moves to Florida to escape our winters.  Back to the subject... Hang in there, take care, and keep us informed please. | ||
| Whatever |
I'm not sure I really care about everyone's opinion of me on here. None of the doubting Thomases on here (so far) seems to want to acknowledge the situation that hospitals are actually dealing with. Also, I've probably already said too much. If my honest, candid, accurate sharing of what folks in critical healthcare are dealing with doesn't give anyone a bigger perspective, nothing will. I don't think calling professionals "scared, children, lying or exaggerating the truth" is helpful or respectful at all, and there is plenty of that going around on here. So there really isn't a point to this conversation. | ||
| H0gwash |
Unfortunately, people have an inalienable right to be stupid. Not everyone here has friends or family working in the medical field so your first hand experiences are valuable, especially on this thread. | ||
| Hootowl |
The reality is that the mortality rate is not what we were led to believe. This is a good thing. News from the trenches is helpful, but the view can be myopic. | ||
| Ebutch |
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| Aesquire |
None of the doubting Thomases on here (so far) seems to want to acknowledge the situation that hospitals are actually dealing with. Really? I must have missed most of that. But I'm not a Karen or Thomas. I DO have friends in nursing and there is a real problem. Oh, I'm skeptical as all heck when it comes to stuff like the CDC being directed by a previous President to create a study that will support his policies, but that's not my disliking the CDC's core mission or appreciating the hard work and risks their real workers do and take. It's the politicians and their pet experts they haul out to justify anything they want that get mocked here, mostly. Feel free to slam the ones who you think being stupidly silly. So...WHO do you believe when politician A trots out an Expert that says one thing, and politician B does the same, who says another? That's a serious question. I don't think calling professionals "scared, children, lying or exaggerating the truth" is helpful or respectful at all, and there is plenty of that going around on here. I agree, and see question above. Meanwhile, parroting the mantra that the Bad Orange Man is responsible for Covid-19, while the Governor of New York ordered nursing homes to take Covid-19 patients despite not being equipped, prepared, and staffed to quarantine the influx of sick people from the most vulnerable among us, is political and IMHO pointing the finger the wrong direction. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a Trump fan. And I strongly disliked his briefings. I also strongly disliked "my" Governor's exact same campaign crud disguised as informing the people. ( and Cuomo is better at looking good in those campaign ads. Women are swooning! ) So there really isn't a point to this conversation. Really? you won't argue from facts and logic, want to walk away in a huff? That's a childish snowflake attitude. FIGHT! If you are right, prove it. I'm not disputing your experience, your facts, and find them extremely valuable. Drop the politics, or ignore it, and focus on your core strengths. Hey, If I'm wrong about the FACTS, PLEASE correct me. I want to be right, not win. We can disagree on opinion all day long and not make it personal. | ||
| Aesquire |
  ( which just shows politicians only give their side... or spin. Only fools thought "just hide for a month and it's over" )  | ||
| H0gwash |
IMHO this channel is hardly at risk of being overwhelmed by a practicing medical perspective. | ||
| Whisperstealth |
>>> Don't make me start posting Greta Thunberg memes. BWAAHAHA! I found the Greta memes posted in the meme thread hilarious... | ||
| Zacks |
All right, facts. Source: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429 Running the numbers:  | ||
| Zacks |
Should have mentioned that's for Florida... | ||
| Gregtonn |
FWIW https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_crucial_fa cts G | ||
| 86129squids |
May the odds ever be in your favor. | ||
| Ducxl |
The Badweb is always an informative read.  | ||
| Ratbuell |
May the odds ever be in your favor. I think that's kinda the point of Gregtonn's post - given the proliferation of the virus, and the relatively static fatality rate, the overall CFR is turning out to be a fraction of one percent. This is not a 2-week death sentence if you catch it. Chances are, if you're a healthy person, you've already HAD it, and just didn't know it. The article Gregtonn posted is long...and dry...and VERY informative. I suggest reading all of it. | ||
| H0gwash |
Not a great prognosis for those over 65 in less than best health. Young people will be encouraged by the YYPL calculation, but Seniors won't. | ||
| Hootowl |
Beware of hand sanitizers labeled ethanol, but containing methanol. https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availabi lity/fda-updates-hand-sanitizers-methanol All made in Mexico, so far, according to FDA. The shortage likely led unscrupulous companies to substitute ethanol with methanol. | ||
| Court |
We nee$ to do better. I’ve been sitting in Aline to get tested. Running 45 minutes per test. I’ll be here a good part of the day | ||
| Hootowl |
45 minutes for a cheek swab? Sheesh! | ||
| Pwnzor |
Not everyone here has friends or family working in the medical field I do. I no longer waste my time thinking about this virus. I go about my business, and wear a mask if I'm forced to. Beyond that, I'll take my chances and do my best to not leave any of my germs (whatever germs those may be) anywhere. I've got to be extremely bored (like waiting in my car at the DMV for the last 2 hours for "my turn"). | ||
| Ratbuell |
Work had us all get checked on Friday. I think they were trying to remove my contact lenses...through my nostril. I, also, don't waste time worrying about this thing. I do what I can for the sake of others, but I'm not in the least concerned about myself. I'm about as low-risk as it gets, and if I haven't had it already (without realizing it), I'm not concerned about getting it. I'm young(ish), healthy, good cardio, and excellent respiratory. I went yesterday, in 97 degree, humid weather, and rode 21 miles on my mountain bike up and down the C&O Canal towpath. It is what it is. What it is NOT, is a 14 day death sentence if I catch it. And, looking at the CFR projections from the CDC themselves...that's the case for the majority of people in the USA. Fractions of a percentage point. Read the article that Greg posted yesterday. It's dry...but it's fact. | ||
| Gregtonn |
My attitude is exactly like Pwnzor's. A couple of things are helping with the boredom. 1. I'm trying to teach myself to play guitar. 2. I'm having a house built, 750 sq. ft. with an attached garage of about the same size. G | ||
| 86129squids |
Odd bit of (not) trivia, if true- my sis and I are both universal blood donors, O-. She's read/heard that for whatever reason, O- folks seem to have the most resistance to COVID19. Not yet followed up to verify. I've lived my life with what I think is an extremely robust immune system. I rarely get sick, eat anything/everything, drink my beers and whiskeys, and just keep going. Still, I take this crap seriously, having grown up with asthma... thank God I grew out of it in my mid-20's. This COVID stuff gives me the heebie-jeebies. Pray for my dear sister, as she returns to work in just over a week. | ||
| Blake |
Char! Wow! That is a lot of information you shared. Thank you for that. It's a rare thing to see. I'd like to know more about the lag in data. Is it the hospitalization data that lags a couple weeks, or the testing and deaths too? What do you think about the change in criteria mandated by the CDC on April 14th, where virus deaths had previously required confirmation by test, but going forward they were not? Some states break out "confirmed" and "probable" deaths, but some don't, and the CDC apparently didn't specify that they should, and I've not seen them breaking out the death toll data for "confirmed" vs "probable.". Talk about bad science, changing the criteria for a primary dataset in the middle of data collection is pretty bad. If I'd done that during testing and data collection work in my career, I'd likely have been fired on the spot. It's still better than nothing, but what the heck, we're supposed to be doing science here. | ||
| Blake |
Hey Sifo! Welcome back amigo! Missed you! I'm going to have to go back and reread our discussion about your youtube epidemiologist. As I recall I spent a bit of time watching and critiquing one of his videos, so we should be able to see if I was wrong about anything. You're now saying that asymptomatic people are suffering lung damage? REALLY? That's a confirmed conclusion reported by some credible source, you know, someone besides a youtube epidemiologist.  It sounds pretty incredible. How does one suffer permanent lung damage, but not have symptoms? There are two sides to every coin, and on the side opposite of the anti-maskers are those who exaggerate the magnitude and scope of the virus' capacity to harm. Friend of mine had it. Said it was like a light case of flue, sick for a week. No lasting effects. He's an athletic guy, right at 60 years old. Anecdotal, but one more data point to add to your list. Both parents have overnighted in hospital since April, Dad in May for an aortic heart valve replacement, just one night, but he also had a series of 30 precautionary radiation treatments for a small patch of tumor removed from his skin on his chest. Mom got a total knee replacement over a month ago in June, one night in hospital. I was allowed to visit with her. They checked my temperature temperature upon entry to the hospital and asked the expected screening questions, gave me a new mask to wear and a sticker to prove I'm cleared. Once in the room, the doctor and nurses told me I didn't need to wear mask in the room, they did, but mom and I didn't. Private room. I was to put it on if I left the room. Little hospital in Henderson, Texas. Excellent experience. Amazing for such a small town. She was out mowing lawn with her push mower a week ago. Amazing. Same with Dad, he was out walking around the block the day after returning home, two days after getting the new valve. Weekend last, I paid a social visit to my neighbor's barbecue party, July 13th. I met a friend of his there, and we got to talking about the pandemic along with two other guys. He choked up a bit and shared that he and his wife had recently lost a newborn baby shortly after it was born. The baby died with a 101 deg F fever. The death certificate named the virus as the cause of death. They objected, as they'd each been tested and neither had the virus. They were told that that's what the doctor determined, and that it was final. There was no test performed on the baby. This was in Longview, Texas. Like Dr. Birx said to Dr. Redford, Director of the CDC, "I can't trust anything that comes from the CDC." It's another discussion, but that organization has likely been so polluted over the years as govt bureaucracies tend to be, and left without competent leadership for so long, that the best thing might be to just wipe it clean and start over. The CDC's charter and primary reason for being is to control serious disease outbreaks. They alone were primarily responsible for our lack of testing capacity early on. I mean, what was their primary mission. I thought it was to be prepared to control a serious disease outbreak. Let's see, CDC... Center for Disease Control. Yeah, that's their primary job. Instead they had time to study gun violence, climate change, and other out of purview issues. I'm pretty livid at them still. Not only did they not have an adequate testing system in place, but they TOTALLY dropped the ball on creating a working test. They actually shipped test kits that wouldn't work. For !#$% sake how does that happen?!? Thank goodness for the private sector. I digress. Sorry for the rant. Nice to have you back. Try not to take anything personally. Greg and I will do likewise. | ||
| Blake |
Here's something that may be interesting. Just a curiosity at this point. I've done no analysis yet. Is it true that states here in America and the major nations in Europe that were hit the hardest early on, enduring death rates exceeding say 10 per million per day are now doing surprisingly well with death rates down below 0.5 per million per day? The states and Euro nations that failed to achieve the goal of "flattening the curve" are now faring relatively very well, yes? Is it also true that a number of the states here in the USA that did manage to achieve the goal of "flattening the curve", meaning keeping their death rates well below say 5 per million per day are now seeing a surge in the epidemic? Coincidence? Hmmm... The cases of California and Texas are potentially very interesting in that California shut down earlier and for a much longer duration and also mandated masks early on, while Texas shut down later and for a shorter duration, and only just recently mandated masks. By the popular reasoning, California should be faring better overall than Texas, but is it? I guess I need to do the analysis. I made a chart just for Texas, adding a couple notations of interest that may or may not factor into the change in the pandemic trajectory we're now seeing. If what Char says about data being a week or two later than indicated, that shifts the curves to the left by a week or two. Stay well everyone! Here's a plot:  | ||
| Aesquire |
I've heard blood type O is more resistant too, and blood type A least resistant. Naturally, I'm A. https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1760893507581 No surge from protests! https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc -covid-update-july-20-1.5655625 Surge. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/lo ckdown-fatigue-invincibility-causing-more-covid-19 -infections-in-young-people-1.5655401 Excuse for surge. Don't know how B.C. is handling contact tracing. I read NY contact tracing scripts don't ask if you've been to a protest. And read a denial that's so. The folk who denied that they are deliberately not counting riot cases are known to me to be lying scum. I have no opinion on the source of the rumor. Or on it's accuracy. Caveat Emptor. Regardless of political spin. I think lockdown fatigue and big parties is likely a large factor in the expected increase. The thing to remember is that it's expected. The amount of control over your own personal odds of getting sick is actually pretty high. You choose to go hang with groups you choose higher risk. your actions have consequences. "flattening the curve" which DID work to DELAY the plague from spreading as fast as it could have, also delays the day you can relax precautions & go back to raves. When you make that decision will be, or should be, based on the risk dropping to a degree you are comfortable with. And I don't think I'm close, since I'm IN a high risk age and pre-existing conditions group. I predict that politics will change the Media coverage, as election day approaches. ( easy prediction ) and further predict the reliability of coverage going from bad to abysmal. ( sure bet ) December Covid-19 news might contrast starkly with today's. And, here's a pre-existing conditions story. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/co vid-patient-26-years-old-burnaby-1.5654665 Statistics aren't personal. The map is not the territory. Take care. Love each other. May your deity of choice bless you and family. | ||
| Tpehak |
Do you think we have a chance to survive? | ||
| Macbuell |
The rest of us, yes. You, no. I kid, I kid. (Message edited by Macbuell on July 21, 2020) | ||
| Crusty |
Whoopie! We're all gonna die! |
