| Author | Message | ||
     Blake |
Alrighty then. I earned a perfect score on the GRE engineering math exam (required for graduate school), so stupid seems unlikely. There's always someone quicker, more intelligent, or more experienced. A wise person listens to what they have to say. The foolish person lashes out and insults them for daring to disagree. Don't be foolish. I'd say that dishonesty or more charitably inaccuracy/error, when it comes to scientific understanding is VERY common these days. People who fancy themselves scientific experts make foolish assumptions, substitute human reasoning for empirical method, and make foolish statements. I'd not call them dishonest, just ignorant and impulsive. "I doubt I'll be off by more than two days." - Sifo circa April 2nd (paraphrased) Your prediction was off by five time that predicted error margin. So now you seem to be agreeing that the effect of immunity on epidemics begins to show itself as the number infected reach just 50%. But Tom, even before that, a typical epidemic trajectory fairly early on while still rising, starts to rise at an ever reduced rate. There is an inflection point where the curve goes from upwardly curving, to downwardly curving, from convex to concave, from bowl shaped to umbrella shaped. Why do epidemics do that? (Message edited by blake on April 28, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
Is a bell curve supposed to be such a plateau? Sure looks like the curve has been flattened. Time will tell for sure. Anyone else notice that there is a dip every weekend? Reporting issue? Labs not working on weekends? I'm really not sure why, but there's about a 2 day dip, about every 7 days.  | ||
| Ratbuell |
You continue to ignore (disregard, whatever) the premise for my argument. FACT - there are no more dead people from COVID than there are from this season's flu, or from an average flu season. FACT - we have shut down western civilization for COVID, but we do not do so for the annual flu. FACT - we are seeing, more and more, tests that show a massive infestation of the general public with this virus, more along the lines of a standard flu. And yet...still the same body count. I am not comparing CFR to IFR. I understand the difference. My statement is simply about body count, and even with the new decree from CDC saying "if it looks like COVID, just call it COVID even without testing" this is not the runaway extinction level event that everyone was using as the excuse to shut down our lives. And quite frankly, that new decree from CDC not only INcreases (artificially) the COVID death count, but it also DEcreases (artificially) the flu death count, as well as any other cause of death such as emphysema. Also, keep in mind - the whole "flatten the curve" thing wasn't to keep people from catching COVID. It wasn't about keeping it out of society. It wasn't about reducing a death count. All it was, was to limit the death count RIGHT NOW. To spread it out. To keep hospitals from being overloaded (which, incidentally, also seems to have been a non-issue as reported by many facilities, including those in the hot spots around the country including NYC). Here in the US we can't seem to get past that first step. WE were never given that opportunity. WE were never allowed to practice personal responsibility. WE, like small children, were simply forced to shutter our economy - and as Sweden's results are showing, it did absolutely nothing other than castrate our economy. Thank you for posting that article - it makes my point perfectly. (Message edited by ratbuell on April 28, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
"I doubt I'll be off by more than two days." Your prediction was off by five time that predicted error margin. And again, you choose to ignore the fact that mitigation wasn't taken into account. I think we've ruled out stupidity for this, right? So now you're agreeing that epidemics begin to decline in effect as the number infected reach just 50%. But even before that typical epidemic trajectory fairly early on while still rising, starts to rise at an ever reduced rate. There is an inflection point where the curve goes from upwardly curving, to downwardly curving. Why do epidemics do that? Originally you said that ALL epidemics do that BEFORE reaching the level of herd immunity. I certainly agree that herd immunity isn't a simple on/off switch. That has never been implied. I was trying to get an answer from you about what you felt caused ALL epidemics to end BEFORE reaching the herd immunity level. What I got back from you was a description of herd immunity. Infection slows to a point where the infection can no longer sustain growth. THAT IS herd immunity. Herd immunity is a factor of the natural R0 value. The R0 value gets affected by many things though, including mitigation. You have denied mitigation works, yet refuse to answer why it's common practice during surgery. We've ruled out stupidity for that, right? Based on the flawed studies in CA, it's clear that the natural R0 for this virus is pretty high. That in turn means the herd immunity value is also going to be quite high. Almost certainly in the 80% to 90% range. That study put the current number of infections between 2% and 5% for known hot spot areas. So you are saying that a virus with a herd immunity level in the 80% to 90% range is slowing to the point of receding, nationally, with only 2% to 5% infected in known hot spots? We've ruled out stupidity here, right? | ||
| Ebutch |
 | ||
| Sifo |
FACT - there are no more dead people from COVID than there are from this season's flu, or from an average flu season. We are days away from blowing right past the upper limit on this seasons upper bound for their CDC estimate. An estimate that BTW has a disclaimer saying it will almost certainly be lowered as the data comes in. We are way past an average flu season. And again, this was with only half a season, assuming it is seasonal. Your first "fact" is a flat out provable lie. FACT - we have shut down western civilization for COVID, but we do not do so for the annual flu. True. I wasn't in favor of that either. That's why I was trying to inform folks about this BEFORE they did this to us. Sure was fun ridiculing me then though, wasn't it. FIFTYS! FACT - we are seeing, more and more, tests that show a massive infestation of the general public with this virus, more along the lines of a standard flu. And yet...still the same body count. FALSE. It's far more virulent that a standard flu. You yourself keep making that claim too. The data also shows it to be more deadly than the flu, both on the CFR and IFR metrics. There is simply no way that you can have something that is more virulent than the flu and more deadly than the flu, not have more deaths than the flu. At least not without vaccines or mitigation. We don't have vaccines for this, and refused voluntary mitigation. S. Korea was the leader on this. Virtually no other major nation followed. I am not comparing CFR to IFR. You have. MANY times. Enough said. My statement is simply about body count, and even with the new decree from CDC saying "if it looks like COVID, just call it COVID even without testing" this is not the runaway extinction level event that everyone was using as the excuse to shut down our lives. And quite frankly, that new decree from CDC not only INcreases (artificially) the COVID death count, but it also DEcreases (artificially) the flu death count, as well as any other cause of death such as emphysema. Actually, it just sets a policy to treat it exactly like they do flu. The Dr. does their best diagnosis, and it's accepted. Your golden flu numbers are also, nothing but estimates. There are quite clear distinctions, especially in the serious cases, that set Covid-19 apart from the flu, just on symptoms. I think a trained Dr. can figure out the difference with pretty good accuracy. It's how S. Korea knew so early that they had a new virus on their hands. Also, keep in mind - the whole "flatten the curve" thing wasn't to keep people from catching COVID. It wasn't about keeping it out of society. It wasn't about reducing a death count. All it was, was to limit the death count RIGHT NOW. To spread it out. To keep hospitals from being overloaded (which, incidentally, also seems to have been a non-issue as reported by many facilities, including those in the hot spots around the country including NYC). Classic case of denial of the effects of mitigation. NYC had many facilities that were right on the edge of collapse. Storing bodies in refrigerated trucks ISN'T normal. WE were never given that opportunity. WE were never allowed to practice personal responsibility. We always have that opportunity. I tried to convince people of the necessity. You made a choice to pass on the opportunity to do the right things. True, our leadership dropped the ball on this too, but what did YOU do? That's the personal part of personal responsibility. | ||
| Sifo |
BTW Ratbuell, Sweden has shut down gatherings of more than 50 people. Wouldn't your business be pretty much in the same boat over there?  | ||
| Ratbuell |
We are days away from blowing right past the upper limit on this seasons upper bound for their CDC estimate. An estimate that BTW has a disclaimer saying it will almost certainly be lowered as the data comes in. We are way past an average flu season. And again, this was with only half a season, assuming it is seasonal. Your first "fact" is a flat out provable lie. COVID - 53,922 FLU - 24k-62k And, of COURSE the flu numbers will be rounded down...they're calling ANY death a "COVID death", even without testing. Half a season? How did the pandemic start? It’s still unclear how SARS-CoV-2 made the jump from bats to humans but it seems certain the first infections were in Wuhan, China, perhaps in November 2019, but certainly by early December 2019. Sounds like a full season to me... From http://levittownnow.com/2020/04/28/frequently-aske d-questions-covid-19/, citing Bloomberg, NPR, and CNN. The data also shows it to be more deadly than the flu, both on the CFR and IFR metrics And that data is still woefully incomplete. We have tested 5.5M Americans, out of 339M. There are cases galore out there, that - and this has been said before, but you refuse to acknowledge it - people have the virus, carry the virus, and beat the virus. All without symptoms. "Deadlier than" metrics are bullshit, until we get a true number of infections compiled. And - even WITHOUT knowing how many people have actually had it - the entire globe is still holding true to the 5:1 survivor:death ratio. Here - go look: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html On the right, you can click the "recovered" tab under the column that shows deaths, and see for yourself. 906,898 recovered; 212,345 died. And that doesn't include those who contract, carry, and beat it all without symptoms. I think a trained Dr. can figure out the difference with pretty good accuracy. Now THERE's a shining example of the Scientific Method. It's how S. Korea knew so early that they had a new virus on their hands. No, I suspect they actually tested the patient's blood, and FOUND the new virus in their systems. You know...like doctors are SUPPOSED to do, not by "thinking" and "guessing". NYC had many facilities that were right on the edge of collapse. Storing bodies in refrigerated trucks ISN'T normal. Also explained in the past. Cadavers with the virus are still contagious for a period of time. Bodies that were infected were simply stored - refrigerated, as standard practice - for a period of time to allow the virus to die, before the bodies were handled by staff. You know. That whole "mitigation" thing you like to preach about so much. but what did YOU do? That's the personal part of personal responsibility. I use my brain. I practice common sense. I fought against abject panic. More importantly? I went about my daily life, in a relatively normal fashion. Didn't get sick (at least, not any symptoms). Didn't die. Didn't kill anyone else. Like our nation should have been allowed to do. | ||
| Blake |
Any scientific reasoning that cannot be put in the form of a formal logical argument, isn't worth considering. One of the greatest failures or maybe oversights of modern education is its lack of teaching formal logic. Every "scientific" paper that reaches a conclusion, ought to be required to present the formal logical argument that supports said conclusion. A string of scientifically justified premises addressed through valid logical reasoning from which the conclusion naturally proceeds. If you can't do that, then you're not doing valid science. Valid coherent logical justification must be a mandated necessary condition to anything being considered scientifically concluded; while that alone is necessary to every scientific conclusion, it is not sufficient for qualifying a conclusion as "scientific", other qualifications must also be met, but it's a good start. Back on topic: The issue of discussion as I perceive it is not how Tom has framed it. I'm not arguing for ANYTHING. I'm arguing against what Tom's conclusion. As I see it, the debate concerns the following: True or False: The decline in pandemic trajectory/severity is due to mitigation policies and practices, without which the severity of the pandemic would have continued to worsen exponentially. My own view is that "we don't know, and cannot scientifically say one way or the other, but there is evidence that tends to contradict the affirmative; because it is possible even probable that other well-known factors may be responsible for the decline in the pandemic." Here's my logical argument for that conclusion: P0) The mortality rate in deaths per day due to the CV pandemic had been recently observed to be in significant decline. P1) The typical mortality trajectory of ALL epidemics exclusive of any intentional mitigating factors includes a phase when exponential growth of mortality stops and the trajectory begins to decelerate and then decline. P2) The presence of significant immunity and/or disease resistance among the population are two other such factors. P3) The onset of warmer sunnier weather and higher humidity indoors which destroy the pathogen are other such factors. P4) High mortality and infection among the specific at risk portion of the population is another such factor. Because if enough of just the high risk segment of the population either dies or gains immunity, what happens among the rest of the population will have less affect on fatality rates overall. P5) Improved treatments and hospital care procedures can reduce mortality over time. P7) The factors noted in P1-P5 above each may to a significant degree reduce the severity of a pandemic's mortality rate. C) Therefore it is not possible to isolate intentional mitigation policy/behavior as the governing factor responsible for the recent observed decline in mortality. (Message edited by blake on April 28, 2020) | ||
| Ratbuell |
Wouldn't your business be pretty much in the same boat over there? Yep. And it would suck for me, my business, and many others. But...it's not the ENTIRE GODDAMNED ECONOMY. People have no idea how long it'll take to dig out of this hole. Entire supply chains have been shut down, from the ground up. Can't make cars without parts. Can't make parts without raw materials. Can't make raw materials without mining or refining. Can't mine or refine without equipment. Can't make/maintain/replace equipment without parts...the ripples continue to expand, the hole gets deeper, and the "recovery" calendar gets longer. And longer. And longer. The longer we hold our breath and plug our ears and chant "nanananananaI'mnotlistening", the longer it'll take us to dig out of this mess. Let's say restrictions get lifted. Restaurants are allowed to open. People WANT to go out...but haven't been working, so might not have the money to go out with, so they stay home. Does nothing for the restaurants. The longer people don't work...the longer it'll take to refill those bank accounts to the comfort level that lets them go out again. And, that's more time that restaurants - or other small businesses - still don't have income. Owners? If they CAN open, they have to spend money making changes to their facilities. Plexiglass - which is in a shortage at the moment, but you don't hear about it like toilet paper - needs to get purchased and installed. Floors need to be rearranged to ensure "social distancing". Head counts will be reduced, which means income will be reduced. Supplies and goods will be in short supply, until the supply chains are back up to speed - and once production starts, you still have to wait in line behind everyone ELSE who's waiting for product. For how long? When will we be allowed to take personal responsibility? Who decides? And...will it be a peaceful decision? Or not? Quite a different picture, compared to business as usual with a 50 person limit. | ||
| Blake |
Tom: >>> >>> Your prediction was off by five times that (2-days) predicted error margin. >>> And again, you choose to ignore the fact that mitigation wasn't taken into account. I think we've ruled out stupidity for this, right? So you failed to account for just one factor that you hadn't understood or predicted might affect the trajectory of the pandemic fatality rate. But now there can be no other factors you've failed to understand or account for? It can ONLY be intentional mitigation policy/behavior!? Prove it. Correlation isn't causation. So now you've got all the bases covered and are able to isolate mitigation policies/actions as the governing cause of the resent decline in daily fatality rates? People who disagree are stupid or dishonest? Please do make that formal logical argument. Calling people stupid or dishonest actually tends to undermine a person's "argument." It certainly harms decorum here and is an absolutely miserable way to conduct a discussion. It's how a person loses the respect they might have formerly enjoyed. Show the data. Present a logical argument. Ditch the arrogance and snark. (Message edited by blake on April 28, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
C) Therefore it is not possible to isolate Looks like we are doomed to be forever ignorant about these things. OR We can assess each possibility to the best of our abilities, even assigning probability factors to each if you like. What do you propose is the probability that for a disease with an R0 factor high enough to put the herd immunity level up around 80 to 90%, that the disease fades away after infecting only 5% of the population (less than that actually, but let's go with 5% for the moment). The answer is... We KNOW it doesn't work that way, so the likelihood of this being a governing factor is pretty much nill. OTOH, we do have lots data with other diseases that spread in similar ways (flu and cold viruses) that demonstrate mitigation such as masks and just staying the •••• away from others when you are sick actually stops the spread of viruses. Yes, there may be other things at play too. Seasonality of this virus is a possibility. We are just now beginning to observe that, and it will be difficult to know the exact contribution from each factor. The simple fact is though, we set up an experiment (lockdown, no, I don't like it either), we predicted that in a few weeks, after the incubation period had passed, we would see the rate of new cases flatten, and we are now observing the result of that experiment. No, it's not a perfect experiment, but it's the best we can do under the circumstances. Please address how 5% of the population causes what is being observed. You keep glossing over that part. Why??? | ||
| Sifo |
Calling people stupid or dishonest actually tends to undermine a person's "argument." It certainly harms decorum here and is an absolutely miserable way to conduct a discussion. It's how a person loses the respect they might have formerly enjoyed. Remember who started that crap, and that you supported it back then? Just stop the dishonesty!!! | ||
| Ratbuell |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/wha t-happens-if-we-break-the-pencil.php My point concerning the economy. I don’t think our political class in Washington or the state capitols have the slightest idea of how they have disrupted the workings of our economy beyond the mere measure of the (huge) number of people filing for unemployment, which they think can be fixed simply by printing more money and sending out checks. | ||
| 2003xb9r |
The Corona virus can be seen with the naked eye.  | ||
| Blake |
Tom, You're making the affirmative claim and so the onus is on you to support it via valid logical argument. Please do so. I've offered a simple argument with multiple premises that challenge your conclusion. Show them implausible. "We don't know at this point" is a perfectly acceptable position. The rest is "crap." "Remember who started that crap, and you supported it back then"? I supported no such thing. Regardless, I'm advising all now to be better. I don't come here for the kind of miserableness that is being spewed. It harms the forum and I don't want to see it. It's become a bad habit for some. I'm asking that it now stop. That's all. "Just stop the dishonesty." Please point out this "dishonesty" you've identified. edited for spelling (autocorrect) mistake (Message edited by blake on April 30, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
BTW, did you happen to notice that Sweden also shut down auto production? Things get shut down, one way or the other. Meat processing plants across the US are closing due to the pandemic. Will consumers feel the impact? Just like a normal flu season! But certainly chastise those who might suggest that growing a garden might just be a good idea! FIFTYS! | ||
| Blake |
Saab is dead, and at least two of Volvo's top models are now made in China. What Swedish auto production? And so what? All this breathless reporting about economic consequences, so what? What does any of that have to do with the issue of whether or not the cv is as dire a threat as you claim? Still waiting for your logical argument. Something other than look at this, and look at that, and CNN says this or that. We have data. What does the data say Tom? How does the data support an alarmist conclusion? Spell it out. (Message edited by blake on April 28, 2020) | ||
| Ourdee |
Trump plans to order meatpacking plants to remain open using the Defense Production Act https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/trump-says-will-si gn-order-on-virus-related-liability-problems.html | ||
| Sifo |
Wife just got back from the grocery store. No meat to be had. Alarmist conclusion? Does that make you a covid denier? Or a Covidiot? My position fits right with what most epidemiologists are saying, that this epidemic will claim around 100k to 200k lives. If that's alarmist, then I'm an alarmist. Is that a scientific term. Do you consider epidemiology a science? So someone out of ignorance says we shouldn't have shut down auto production, but should have been more like Sweden, but it's wrong to point out that Sweden shut down their auto production? Really??? It's probably going to be a shock to the Saab employees in Sweden when they find out their employer is dead. I assume you have scientific data that backs that conclusion. The simple fact Blake, is that you have an agenda that has nothing whatsoever to do with where the data leads. You ignore evidence that goes against your agenda. You cherry pick evidence, no matter how bad, that supports your agenda. Then you rant about science. I used to see discussions in passing where folks complained about you doing this same shit. Never paid it much mind, as they weren't topics I cared much about. Being in the middle of it with you first hand though, I've lost pretty much all respect for you. Perhaps you need to ban me for calling your BS. | ||
| Court |
Well. . . . Those gosh darn facts keep slipping through your fingers like clams from a shell. Saab Automobile AB filed for bankruptcy in December 2011. I’m sure the Swedes would love to make cars. And. . . My favorite poster .....  | ||
| Sifo |
Yep, I got that one wrong. Volvo, not Saab. Never paid much attention to either. Point still stands though. 20,000 factory workers out due to Covid-19. This must mean that my entire post is invalid! https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/internat ional/business/truckmaker-volvo-to-put-all-20000-s wedish-staff-on-temporary-lay-off-scheme/articlesh ow/74731577.cms Honestly, when I first read about it, it didn't get more than passing interest, so my recall of some of the facts were off. Consider the matter corrected. | ||
| Slaughter |
We were approached 2 months ago by our local Trauma Center in a desperate act. Based on the ICU staffing and resources, they were forecast to be OUT of supplies in just weeks. Why go to a "Rocket Company?" Because they were out of options! It took a week of urgent calls between the Hospital, our company, NASA, the regulatory agencies to set this in motion. We are working directly with hospitals and doctors and producers of breathing support hoods who were already at full-scale production to design and begin producing bridge ventilators. All being done totally open-source, capable of production anywhere on the planet with indigenous materials. Donated time, donated devices. We're an aerospace company just doing what we can. It's the healthcare workers I really care about. The instance of Covid-positive tests among health care professionals is HIGH. Sure the fatality rate is low - but until they've tested CLEAR for AT LEAST TWO WEEKS, they cannot return to work. Think about that. A month or more away from their duties as a health care professional because they tested positive. Many otherwise healthy health care workers don't dare return home if they have kids or spouses at home. Think about that. The reason so many civilians choose to go without masks in public is the reason we can't have nice things. If the protesters would show their willingness to consider others' well being by wearing masks, I don't think we'd see quite the level of negative reactions to their actions. I'm an anarchist by principle but believe that I have a responsibility to do right by others. If wearing a mask meant I could go back to work I'd wear one. I really do not care about society at large (though am volunteering to help where I can) I DO however care deeply about the health care professionals and first responders. Two links below to projects I'm supporting. All conceived, designed, tested and into production in less than 6 weeks WITH THE SUPPORT of all regulatory agencies: https://www.nbclosangeles.com/on-air/lancaster-com pany-developing-oxygen-hood-for-covid-19-patients/ 2347540/? We've received Emergency Use Authorization for the Branch Ventilators. https://www.virgin.com/news/virgin-orbit-ventilato rs-granted-emergency-use-authorisation? Photo from yesterday of our joint NASA/TSC team with the last Oxygen Delivery Hoods finished. Some hoods have gone to Alaska, MANY are on the way to the Navajo Nation in Arizona - probably the hardest hit of any single group. The rest are going to the local hospitals and where requested. Built 447 of them in this first run. The hoods enable the doctors/nurses to intubate the heavily-sedated patient without exposing them to the virus. The Bridge Ventilator provides ventilation to the unconscious patient without tying up the high-end ventilators required for the most critical patients. Now go ahead and talk among yourselves.  (Message edited by Slaughter on April 28, 2020) (Message edited by slaughter on April 28, 2020) | ||
| 86129squids |
DANG do we need a serious game of Firepit Jenga about now... My $.02- This shit's serious, and I'm taking it as such. Tennessee has yet to get testing up to a point where we can extract solid data, yet Governor Lee's letting all kinds of stuff open. Athens TN has a nursing home covered up with COVID19, including staff. Sure, I'm gonna go out and get me a new tattoo. Before that, I'll hit the gym though.... Sure hope all of youn's are doing well, staying well, and at least trying to maintain peace. | ||
| Court |
Love your t-shirt. Coolest thing I’ve read in a couple days. Thanks to you and your team. | ||
| Slaughter |
Got it the day before from https://www.markniemifineart.com/gallery Mark Niemi I got to know as a CMRA racer in Texas who makes his living as an artist. The Madonna and Child (Spark Plug Baby) is my favorite of his art pieces.  } | ||
| Macbuell |
We will never get past this without herd immunity or a vaccine. Vaccine could be a year away. Are we going to isolate until then. Our economy will be destroyed beyond recovery. So we have to go the herd immunity route. Which means people have to get out and start mingling. Some people will get sick. Some won't but will build the antibodies. We just need to make sure hospitals can handle and treat an increase in cases. And that means effective treatment. I hope doctors have learned what works and what doesn't and are sharing it. And high risk populations need to isolate and be extra careful. That doctor in that video the other day said it perfectly... you isolate the sick and vulnerable... not everyone else. | ||
| Slaughter |
Problem is that the NOT SICK who are Covid-19 positive can spread the virus for 2 weeks before having symptoms and those who have "recovered" are now found (in some cases) to be able to get re-infected. I'm not sure I'd trust an individual's self-reporting as being "sick and vulnerable" when it would guarantee their confinement. The problem we have at work is knowing that if you test clear TODAY and get infected TOMORROW, in just a few days you can start spreading the virus. None of this is easy. (Message edited by slaughter on April 28, 2020) | ||
| Blake |
Who wants to be the decider? | ||
| Blake |
A change of pace for the data presentation.  |
