| Author | Message | ||
     Ourdee |
Opening up here on Friday. I still have some projects going here. I do plan on going to the range in a week or two. | ||
| Ducbsa |
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/the_w uhan_virus_reveals_the_rot_in_americas_democratrun _cities.html | ||
| Blake |
Who is for science? Sweden ran an experiment. Here are the preliminary results:  Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Sweden#Deaths If that trend holds, then it seems likely that the extreme mitigation measures that have plunged us into major recession and added $TRILLIONS to our national debt were VERY foolish and unnecessary. | ||
| Blake |
Joe: Science says: It was the second instance of "Brix", I'd noticed, and the "i" and "r" are on opposite sides of the keyboard, therefore it wasn't your fat fingers. hah!  According to the article, the expected fatality rate MUST be well under 1%. The above data from Sweden, population just over 10 million in total, certainly supports that. They've lost 2,200 to date in total, so a 22/100000=0.00022=0.022% population wide fatality rate. That's the same as the flu. | ||
| Ratbuell |
I'll still blame it on the rum. Alpine sugar-free spiced apple cider (mix packet, just like hot chocolate, in the coffee aisle at the store), mixed with some spiced rum (1 oz or so, in a mug of water), microwave 1 minute, and enjoy.... (and, it's medicinal - there's a good bit of vitamin C in the cider!) I have to agree with the Sweden data. As we all KNOW - because it's what our maste....er, leaders TOLD us - our lockdown wasn't to save people, it was simply to slow the spread so hospitals didn't get overloaded all at once. Any place that didn't lock down...is following the natural progression of the virus...and it's on the downturn. Naturally. So...let's unlock, get the economy started back on track, and let this thing take its (non-extinction-level) course, and GET IT OVER WITH. When I was hospitalized in '08, they kept me on tens of mg of opioids a day in the hospital. Kept me pretty well looped. They sent me home with a prescription of THREE mg. a day. No word of warning, "you might experience...", nothing. I started getting shakes, chills, hot flashes...I though some infection was running rampant through my body. I went to my GP who looked at me and said "you're going through detox. Dummy." (sounded just like Little Enos). I flushed every pill I had when I got home. The next three days sucked BALLS...but then it was over. Done. Finished. Time to rip off the band-aid here. Let us get back to work. Let those who are afraid, continue to stay home if they want - but put a deadline on it so we don't create a whole new Welfare Culture. Give 'em 4 weeks if they have to have it because they're so petrified by fear. But...REMOVE THE MANDATES. Let us get back to work. NOW. These policies are doing more damage than the disease EVER could. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/t he_coronavirus_is_chinas_fault.html Hillary or Joe both got millions or over a billion bucks, illegally, as BRIBES, from the Communist Party of China, so they would not have shut off travel & the rest of the US would look more like NYC, and NYC would have overflowing emergency tents and mass graves in reefer trailers... which would have been unplugged so some homeless man could charge his $1200 iPhone. ( made in China ) | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/rul es-to-live-by.php FINALLY! We get a comprehensive guide to our mandated Coronavirus reaction! | ||
| Macbuell |
Quick point about the Sweden data ... are their underlying levels of obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure and other health conditions similar to the rates in the US? | ||
| Pwnzor |
are their underlying levels of obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure and other health conditions similar to the rates in the US? I'll go out on a limb here and say NO, it isn't. Nobody's are, to my knowledge. We are the fattest country on Earth. | ||
| Ratbuell |
Speaking of fat...anyone have a take on what's going on in NoKo? Rocket Man seems to have taken a leave of absence... | ||
| Tpehak |
Too much calories. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/0 4/27/south-korean-media-rumor-kim-jong-un-is-fine- but-bodyguards-have-coronavirus/ Kim's fate and breathing status is unknown. We'll learn the official lie, later, after power has been transfered, maybe even without a secret little civil war. It's easy to believe he's in hiding to support the lie there are no Pooh's Breath cases, but that seems unlikely to me, given his impulse control. ( not much & why not? ) | ||
| Hootowl |
I confess, if I were a god-king, I too would have poor impulse control. It’s good to be god-king. | ||
| Ducbsa |
Hoot, would you make Court finally tell those damn stories? | ||
| Ourdee |
Coronavirus Update: Illinois' stay-at-home order overturned by judge as IL COVID-19 death toll nears 2K with 45K total cases https://abc7chicago.com/illinois-coronavirus-cases -how-many-new-of-in-pritzker-update/6132103/ | ||
| Ourdee |
And poop on Pritzker! | ||
| Hootowl |
I’m not sure. I think I might be afraid to hear some of them. I’m a god, not God. I still have human sensibilities | ||
| Sifo |
Interesting stuff on Sweden. They are certainly doing a lot of mitigation. A lot. A good deal of it is just lifestyle in Sweden. A lot is based on personal responsibility. It's a very different story than what is usually told about Sweden's response to this. Yes, the numbers he discusses is out of date already. That's a fact of looking at such a fast moving event. And some good info to be ignored about herd immunity. Spoiler alert... If you accept how infectious it is according to the studies from CA, then you have to accept that we are nowhere near herd immunity rates. OTOH, if the studies from CA are way off base, then we are nowhere near herd immunity rates. That shouldn't be news though. | ||
| Aesquire |
Herd immunity only really matters over longer time scales or smaller groups. I wouldn't expect any realistic herd immunity effects in the U.S. until next year, late fall if the spread is wider than the orthodox guess, maybe. Until a very high percentage of people can say "oh, yeah, I had that last year" AND there's a decent percentage who have been vaccinated, some combination adding up to A high majority, herd immunity is a myth. If you take isolated microcosms like Poseidon missile subs, months with zero contact other than radio, then the idea of herd immunity crashes into the rocks of close contact. Doesn't work there. (Message edited by Aesquire on April 27, 2020) | ||
| Blake |
The Netherlands looks similar to Sweden and with a 0.026% cv fatality rate relative to the entire 17.4 million population. I have a new plot. Anyone want to see it? Here it is:  It looks like a race to ground, and S. Korea and Texas are disqualified since they never really left ground. They're ground effect maybe. Well S. Korea is on rails actually. | ||
| Blake |
Hey Tom, We never checked your projection, and from the way you're addressing people here, maybe you could use a little humble pie. On day 31, April 1st, you predicted the USA would hit 100 deaths per million in 1 week by day 38. It took 2-weeks and 3-days, until day 48. The actual trajectory was 40% as rapid as you predicted. You were pretty sure of your reasoning then too, yes? Look at the data. Stop listening to pundits.   You won't answer my question about what causes every epidemic trajectory known to man to nose over and decline in death rate long before herd immunity is reached. You just keep repeating that we've not yet reached herd immunity. Well, maybe Sweden has. (Message edited by blake on April 28, 2020) | ||
| Blake |
Let the data tampering begin... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/ | ||
| Ducbsa |
That 3778 addition by NY does seem to be suspicious. | ||
| Ratbuell |
A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19" Hm. So...the virus didn't live up to the hype. Guess we better make sure the fear factor stays intact. Science be damned - We. Need. POWER. | ||
| Aesquire |
Blake, I admit I've lost track of the argument here, but herd immunity is just a buzzword right now. If... If the dispute is if Pooh's Breath is more infective than influenza, ( average, standard, imaginary ) The answer seems to be probably. That's not a question that interest me all that much as the same ballpark as flu is bad. If the dispute is if Pooh's Breath is more harmful/toxic/fatal as flu, the answer seems to be, "heck yes, in MY age group and way worse for over 70 aged folk". If you're 15 you have a good shot at little if any long term health problems. Do I have that correct? | ||
| Ratbuell |
I think it's a little of both. I know in MY case, the argument is a) yes (and we're seeing this in more, and more, and more studies lately) it IS crazy-contagious, and a LOT of people have, or have had, the virus. A point I've been arguing all along. However - and this is MY position - if you assume a) to be true (again, we're seeing more and more tests that support that), then the assumption that b) it is more deadly than a flu, simply isn't the case. I've said it before and I'll say it again - if it's THAT contagious...and it's THAT deadly...then where's all the bodies? Easy. They're not there. They're not piling up. We don't have hundreds of thousands of dead Americans, as predicted. And, we've crashed western society and our economy...for naught. For something that has killed no more Americans than an average flu season. For something, it looks more and more like, that has a sub-1% fatality rate. And - again, more and more samples are proving this - CV19 doesn't "kill". CV19 aggravates other, pre-existing respiratory conditions, until THEY kill you. "Co-morbidity" is what that's called. Most, if not all, of the people who "die from CV19"...have underlying conditions like emphysema, or are chronic smokers, or morbidly obese, or diabetic. Basically-healthy people? Beat it down. That seems to be the argument - the "we have to lock everything down and shelter in place forever until this thing passes, or it's Armageddon and millions will die by next week" camp, and the "WTF are we DOING here, this is stupid, the numbers don't support this kind of panic and damage to society" camp. The numbers are leaning more and more to the WTF camp...and now the CDC has declared "it's OK to count someone you THINK died from CV19, as a CV19 death...you don't need to test, or confirm...just call it COVID and it'll go in the death count column". If the numbers don't add up...skew the requirements until they fit your needs. | ||
| Pwnzor |
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| Sifo |
Hey Tom, We never checked your projection, and from the way you're addressing people here, maybe you could use a little humble pie. On day 31, April 1st, you predicted the USA would hit 100 deaths per million in 1 week by day 38. It took 2-weeks and 3-days, until day 48. The actual trajectory was 40% as rapid as you predicted. You were pretty sure of your reasoning then too, yes? Look at the data. Stop listening to pundits. Blake, Off by 10 days? I can live with that quite happily. Of course this was a product of our discussions on the usefulness of looking at exponential growth on a log chart vs. linear. As can be clearly seen in the updated log chart, it's easy to see when the exponential growth starts to slow. Thanks for demonstrating that point. You can actually see the beginning of that change in the last couple of data points. I pretty much ignored that because I didn't want to make a trend out of a couple of data points. The point of all that was in a linear chart, it's very difficult to see any change in exponential growth...  Vs. in a log chart, a change in the exponential growth is far more clear to see. Of course, this was all on April 1. Early March they started the talk of social distancing, wearing masks etc. It was around mid to late March that states started taking mitigation seriously. My state was among the early ones to start. We shut schools down after 3/13. It was about a week later that they were forcing businesses to close, etc., what became known as a lockdown. What is seen, fits very nicely with the start of mitigation in early March. So, no, I didn't try to account for the effects of mitigation factors in my prediction. That was never the point. Someone who is smart could see this. Someone who is honest could admit this. Which applies to you? I'm pretty sure your fairly smart. You won't answer my question about what causes every epidemic trajectory known to man to nose over and decline in death rate long before herd immunity is reached. You just keep repeating that we've not yet reached herd immunity. Baring prevention and mitigation, or factors such as seasonality it would be the onset of herd immunity. If it's as transmittable as claimed by the flawed CA studies, then the level for herd immunity would likely be near 90% I've said 80% many times prior to that. It seems I may have been fairly on target. Those same studies put the total infected so far around 2.5% to around 5% as I recall the details. That's nowhere near enough to get ANY benefits from herd immunity on this. Someone who is smart could see this. Someone who is honest could admit this. Which applies to you? I'm pretty sure your fairly smart. Well, maybe Sweden has. Given that this all seems to be in response to my last post that deals with the details of Sweden's strategy, I presume you have taken that in. It would be the only honest way to respond after all. The simple fact of the matter is that Sweden has a lot of mitigation happening. A big part of that has to do with how their society lives in the first place. They have chosen to rely on personal responsibility, rather than draconian rules that will be a nightmare to enforce. I can understand someone being misled on this, given some of the dishonesty that has gone on about Sweden's response, but after the truth has been pointed out, someone who is smart could see this. Someone who is honest could admit this. Which applies to you? I'm pretty sure your fairly smart. Blake, why do you never answer my questions about why surgeon's wear masks and gloves. It's the most basic of mitigation strategies that you claim don't work. Someone who is smart could see this works. Someone who is honest could admit this. Which applies to you? I'm pretty sure your fairly smart. Of course we may also be seeing another factor that has seen little discussion in this thread. There may be a seasonal factor involved with this virus. It wouldn't be too surprising, given that similar viruses are also seasonal. Assuming this to be true, we have had roughly the worst case estimated for the seasonal flu, but in only half a season. The next season, without further mitigation strategies, will be far worse than the half season we just witnessed. We don't have herd immunity in place, and we would have to bypass normal safety protocols to get a vaccine out by then, if we can even develop a vaccine. Someone who is smart could see this. Someone who is honest could admit this. Which applies to you? I'm pretty sure your fairly smart. Personally, I would much prefer mitigation on a personal responsibility basis. Unfortunately, lines are being drawn that defy facts and when that happens, mitigation will be forced upon us by those who don't live near us, or live by the rules that impose upon us. That's what happens when you ignore personal responsibility. FIFTYS! So, Blake, I'm still left with the question of if you are just stupid, or dishonest. A stupid person can be lead through a complex problem step by step if they are willing to try to learn. It takes more effort and hand holding than with smart folks, but it's generally doable. A dishonest person simply isn't worth the time or the effort. | ||
| Sifo |
While I' ridiculing the dishonesty going on here... However - and this is MY position - if you assume a) to be true (again, we're seeing more and more tests that support that), then the assumption that b) it is more deadly than a flu, simply isn't the case. I've said it before and I'll say it again - if it's THAT contagious...and it's THAT deadly...then where's all the bodies? First, your A and B are not mutually exclusive. In fact, the fact that it's better at being transmitted just makes it worse. Also, it's been pointed out that you keep trying to compare IFR for flu to CFR for Covid-19. The reality though, is that both IFR and CFR for Covid-19 show it to be quite a bit more deadly that the flu. That it's more easily transmitted just means you are more likely to get it than the flu. I may attribute this to stupidity rather than dishonesty though. I'm really not sure. Easy. They're not there. They're not piling up. We don't have hundreds of thousands of dead Americans, as predicted. Here's where there's clear dishonesty though. When I started this discussion with you it was about the deaths per million only being 3. Then it went to 4 I think the next day and that went on for a while. Then it became "we don't have tens of thousands of deaths". Of course we are well past that. Then it became the threshold of the highest estimate of flu deaths from the CDC. We are about to pass that in a couple of days or so, so now it's hundreds of thousands. You just continue to move the goal post with every failed protest. That has nothing to do with stupidity, it's just dishonest. And the 100,000 to 200,000 estimate wasn't for through April, it was a total for the epidemic. It's far from over. If it's seasonal, it will continue next season (for the full season this time). If it turns out to not be seasonal, it will start right up again as soon as we relax mitigation measures. | ||
| Sifo |
Some truth about Sweden's response. The do claim that schools remained open, but that's only partially correct, as they have closed the Senior High Schools. Of course, you can only do this when you have a population that accepts the fact that you are dealing with a deadly epidemic. Here in the US we can't seem to get past that first step. He commentary on the US isn't flattering. Sweden’s Top Epidemiologist: COVID-19 Infections Flattening Under Policy of Individual Responsibility |
