| Author | Message | ||
     Aesquire |
https://newcriterion.com/issues/2020/5/like-the-pl ague | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/the -models-were-wrong-does-anyone-care.php 20 seconds? 3 per minute, 180 per hour, 4320 per day, 129600 per month... 1,576,800 yearly deaths? ( assumes every day at 20 seconds per fatality, highly unlikely ) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm Yeah, there's some bad math going on with the 20 seconds statement. ( could be mine  ) | ||
| Pwnzor |
 | ||
| Ratbuell |
Blaming obesity on food is like blaming atrophied muscles on the couch. Nobody NEEDS to drink soda pop or beer, water is perfectly fine. I don't care what food you eat. If you overeat and don't exercise, you'll get obese. And what is this talk about rich people being thin? Got any data to back any of that up? It was a general statement. It's pretty well-known that the vast majority of soft, pink, rolls-of-fat Americans are lower-income simply due to the fact that you can buy a case of twinkies cheaper than you can buy a weight watchers meal (pound for pound/serving for serving). Food ABSOLUTELY contributes to obesity - garbage in, garbage out. And even in moderation, crap food is worse for you than decent food. Sugars and preservatives, versus proteins and grains. It is not the only factor, and I'm aware of that as well. I eat healthy - not "grow my own garden" healthy, but healthy enough that I can safely say if you find a piece of candy in my house, I'll give you a motorcycle. As such, even I am gaining a spare tire due to lack of exercise from injury, and lack of time, crappy weather...and this stupid lockdown. And, that age thing. However, what *I* think is "fat" for me...is still well below the national average for obesity (I'm 6'4", 190 lbs). Which brings up possibly the most important factor - giving a shit about how you look. If you don't care...it's nearly impossible to stay "in shape" (well...once you're out of your hyper-metabolic teen years anyway). | ||
| Ratbuell |
Comparing NY to SD, straight up, is pretty ludicrous. They are completely different animals. ... We only have 8 cases in our county, so I'm not too concerned. Detroit is a different story, yet we are the same to our governor. This point makes me very happy that we aren't having D.C. manage all of the mitigation. NY (state, not the city) has 1,063 deaths per M. So far. It's far from over. Extending that across the country would give over 350,000 deaths. Do we really want to set the bar for performance there? So...you spend one post saying that "one size fits all" mitigation is not the answer due to the fact that different areas will have vastly differing infection and death rates...but then you post a blanket statement proposing a one-size-fits-all death rate based on the hottest-spot-state in the nation. You need to pick one. You can't have both, and you know it. And like everything else...infection rate. Death rate. Deaths per million. How about SURVIVAL rate??? Why does nobody talk about that? Still? Oh. That's right. It mitigates the horror. Here - from Google: Worldwide 2,721,354 confirmed 349.98 cases per million 745,605 RECOVERED 191,231 deaths\black That's still FOUR TIMES as many people surviving as dying...and that's just confirmed cases, which we're seeing more and more studies show is just the tip of the infection iceberg. But nobody talks about that, because it blows the narrative.} | ||
| Court |
The narrative also .... likely ..... crumbled ***IF*** (I don’t know, but suspect this) there have been many, otherwise healthy, millennials who got the COVID-19.... suffered a bit for a couple days and shook it off just like they would a flu. I suspect many more have had this than we’ve tested or heard from.
It’s pure silliness. I live in a fairly nice area where many have personal trainers coming to the house daily, most have personal chefs and all sorts of silliness ... I’m betting the distribution of obese folks pretty much looks like the general population. Who knows. I know I peeled the weight off just by cutting out 5 Guys for lunch and dinner 4 days a week and not eating Oreo cookies a package at a time. To me .... it’s simple arithmetic.... I peddle 2,000 calories a day off .... I gobble up 1,400 calories a day in and remember to drink lots of water and get 8 hours of sleep. No rocket science. (Message edited by Court on April 24, 2020) | ||
| Ratbuell |
I know I peeled the weight off just by cutting out 5 Guys for lunch and dinner 4 days a week and not eating Oreo cookies a package at a time. To me .... it’s simple arithmetic.... I peddle 2,000 calories a day off .... I gobble up 1,400 calories a day in and remember to drink lots of water and get 8 hours of sleep. No rocket science. As I said - the "care" factor. I don't deny I made a poor, generalized statement. But...and Court, I guarantee you can see this as well...go visit a walmart at...oh...10pm or later on any given day. You'll see more big, pink people than you ever will in your gated enclave. And, they won't be nearly the age of the enclave-dwellers (even down in the land of the newly-wed and nearly-dead!). Again - my statement before was generalized and I apologize for that. But personal life experience...shows me that less well-off people eat poorer diets, do less for themselves, and gain weight because of it. In general, cheap food is bad for you. But...ANY food is bad for you, when taken in excess, and in combination with lack of exercise. You impress the hell out of me - that's some serious exercise, and I'm glad you're able to enjoy the climate down there. Ma Nature keeps teasing us here in MD - nearly warm enough to mountain bike...but not quite yet...but almost...but maybe...and then it'll snow, and put an inch of snow on my daylillies and my budding trees. | ||
| Court |
I couldn’t agree more. One trip to a McDonalds, anytime of day, would reveal the “Encyclopedia of Underlying Causes”. I’ve been struggling to get a sense of what’s really going on. The movie theatre in my hometown is handing out free popcorn as folks drive through the parking let. . . .hotels are refusing to allow folks in if they have NY or NJ license plates and The White House floated the idea that we main line Lysol. It occurs to me ....and we’ve been donating big time. . . That the greatest threat is hunger. When I heard the story of the Vet who waited for hours and was unable to get food for his family I got pissed and did something. My hope is that if each of us does a bit . . . . From $5 to $5,000 that we can solve that problem at the citizen level rather than depending on elected officials. | ||
| Ratbuell |
Agreed. And, once we mainline Lysol, in five or ten years we'll have ads on TV along the lines of the Round-Up ads now - "were you told in the coronavirus pandemic to overdose on Lysol, and now you have a new form of cancer? Call this hotline, and we'll represent you in the new, exciting, class-action lawsuit!" Hunger will be an issue. So will, when/if we get to that point, public safety. If the "out in public" numbers exceed the "back to work" numbers by a significant enough margin, and there are still empty stores full of merchandise and unattended by staff, and people are hungry and scared and bored...we may have issues. We're already seeing quite a few of well-organized and well-mannered "put us back to work" protests. But. Those could easily devolve, given enough time, pressure from elected officials and the laws they pass, and enough poverty. | ||
| Blake |
Joe, I think what you perceive as "general knowledge" may be the popular narrative, and you know how that can evolve regardless of reality. Oatmeal is WAY cheaper than any of the hyper-sugared breakfast cereals. People buy the hyper-sugared breakfast cereals anyway. Soda pop is a HUGE source of obesity and sugar intake in America. People aren't drinking sugar-laden soda pop because its cheap. Tapwater is WAY cheaper. Most all dry goods legumes are very inexpensive per serving, but people purchase MUCH more expensive processed foods. It isn't the cost that drives unhealthy eating. It's just poor choices. Don't fall for the narrative being used to guilt trip people into accepting Leftist policy. (Message edited by blake on April 24, 2020) | ||
| Ducbsa |
Too much MSM, Trump didn't say to mainline cleaner. If you can operate a Buell, you wouldn't take what he actually said and inject Lysol. | ||
| Ratbuell |
I agree with what you're saying, Blake. And I think it points out there is also an "effort" factor - crap food is also easy, you can toss it in the microwave or eat it right out of the drive-through, as opposed to actually having to PREPARE it. I grew up - and my mother will grudgingly admit to this (just step back and duck when you say it!) - thinking Hamburger Helper was a food group. I have since learned that I can eat MUCH better, with a little time, effort, and quality ingredients (fresh beef, fresh seasonings, fresh veggies, and some time to put it all together). Same thing with exercise - it requires TIME, and some dedication to the end result, just like cooking. It takes me all of eight and a half minutes on the rower, to do 1,000 meters and burn over 200 calories...but I still have a hard time convincing myself to do it daily. Excuses are easy; hard work takes effort. Both build results...but only one builds the results we want. I'm getting better, as I gradually overcome a back injury, at dedicating those 8.5 minutes a day to not becoming fat(ter) and lazy(er). And once the weather FINALLY turns, I'll absolutely be out on the mountain bike, in the sunlight and fresh air! 25 minutes on the bike nets me 6.5 miles and a hair over 400 calories burned. And that all ties into the "care versus lazy" equation. The "free stuff" people all want things handed to them, zero effort required, and zero personal responsibility. The "care" group, on the other hand, doesn't mind doing a little work - for good food, or for a decent income with which to buy that good food. | ||
| Aesquire |
But, but, Trump told us to eat pool cleaner! The daily briefings are great examples of bad amateur performance art. People pretending to be reporters acting like they are cleverly trapping much smarter people with gotcha questions. "Wouldn't it be better if we were all vaccinated before the disease existed?" & "that stupid thing the guy next to me made up you said yesterday, are you sticking to that?" ... They borrowed ten year's pay to become Woodward and Bernstein, but didn't realize you have to work to get a story, and aren't the leading man in one. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/04/24/lysol- says-dont-inject-disinfectants-after-trump-remarks / I think going into the sun to kill the virus is a great idea. Order a ride from Elon, right away.  I should start a rumour that using vodka in your bong is good for killing viruses! ( and brain cells ) | ||
| Ratbuell |
 | ||
| Ourdee |
UofL believes it's made breakthrough in COVID-19 treatment, works to fast-track approval https://www.wlky.com/article/uofl-believes-its-mad e-breakthrough-in-covid-19-treatment-works-to-fast -track-approval/32240538 | ||
| Blake |
Looking better every day!  | ||
| Sifo |
Saw Liz MacDonald on FBN this afternoon talking about what's going on in NY. She had a Dr. on who said that about 20% of her patients were testing positive for antibodies. 1) Keep on mind, NYC is the hot spot of the country. 2) This is far from a random sampling. Lis seems to be one who believes the flattening of the curve is a herd immunity thing. As soon as the Dr. started saying it's not, herd immunity for this would be in the 70% to 90% infected range, Liz just cut her off and talked over her. The Dr. was saying we are nowhere near any herd immunity effect. It's strange to have an "expert" on for an interview, then not let them provide basic facts on the subject. It's a bit like a religious thing where faith trumps science. I guess I'm not shocked to see this starting to align along political lines. What I do find unusual is the the left seems to be better aligned with the science that the right. THAT is unsettling! Here in MI, the Governor actually seemed to threaten to extend the lockdown in response to the protest the other day. Today, she made good on that threat. This sort of reaction is insanity! This should be a time to better tune the response, not just double down on stupidity. From some I've talked to around here, the response to this is likely to be doubling down on stupidity from the other side. I think we've been outsmarted by something that has no brain. It certainly isn't encouraging. Time for a good dose of Whiskey! | ||
| Ebutch |
Up here in northern Finger-Lakes region in the sticks (Wayne County) 60 people tested + None DEAD So FAR.  | ||
| Tpehak |
Prepare for 2nd wave. | ||
| Gregtonn |
It's time we start calling this situation what it is. It's not a Pandemic it's a Dem-panic. If this charade doesn't work they are screwed come November. G | ||
| Sifo |
So folks have been upset about the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) being used with Covid-19. The claim is that it's not a valid comparison to the flu. Now that we are getting some data (likely questionable, but still, it's data) on actual infection rates, some are running with that to compare to the flu. WRONG!!! That would be the called the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio). Here's a post from a site that I have no idea how to provide a decent link to, but it's copied in it's entirety, with links. In summary, Covid-19 is about 40x deadlier than the flu using the CFR metric, and about 25x deadlier using the IFR metric. That's what the data is telling us. This isn't just the flu!
EDIT: to fix links. (Message edited by Sifo on April 25, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
Some great news. There is a remedy that is cheap, effective, and has zero side effects! The bad news is that so many are far to stubborn to use it. Coronavirus Diagnoses In Staff Drop By Half After Boston Hospital Requires Masks For All | ||
| Strokizator |
Up here in the great white north we've had one case for each 138,000 acres, and 1 death in nearly half a million acres, yet the governor wants 3 more weeks of house arrest under the pretense of saving my life. We've been doing social distancing since before it was cool. I think I can handle phase II | ||
| Aesquire |
https://spectator.org/mapping-the-mortality-maze-h ow-deadly-is-covid-19/ | ||
| Hootowl |
Good read. | ||
| Ratbuell |
A very common-sense article. Nobody will pay any attention to it, because it is contrary to the horror-narrative. | ||
| H0gwash |
Aesquire's article is a pretty dense 5 pages, but it resolves a lot of seemingly contradictory information into a coherent package. Newly available antibody tests have revised the mortality rate downward. There are aspects of the disease and the antibodies which are still unknown, but things are not as scary as they seemed in March. | ||
| Blake |
https://www.dailywire.com/news/florida-antibody-te sting-suggests-coronavirus-death-rate-far-lower-th an-reported ^^ Better than critiquing a cable news pundit. Tom, That's good information about the two types of fatality rates. The part where you object to the notion that immunity flattens the curve misses the point. You and the doctor are talking past the point raised. The answer to one question will hopefully shed some light. Does significant immunity among the population begin to have an effect before the 80-90% immunity level required for herd immunity? What effect? Answer: Yes. The rate of infection and death begins to decline long before herd immunity is achieved. That is the issue being raised, not that herd immunity has been achieved, which would mean essentially no further infections or deaths (accounting for lag time). Curve flattening doesn't require herd immunity. It just requires a significant proportion of immunity within the herd. | ||
| Blake |
The greater the proportion of immunity the better, yes? Question: We're using antibody serum from human blood plasma to treat people, and it appears successful. We also use horses to create antivenins for treatment of venomous snake bite. Might there be an equivalent animal antibody scheme that could be used for the virus? |
