| Author | Message | ||
     Ourdee |
It appears to me that no matter where you go on the internet people will form quick opinions of material posted and support or ignore that material based on their opinions. Then the people form up in two or more camps and argue or state opinions without considering the other arguements or opinions posted. Usually the original article wasn't that important to begin with. The result of the wedge the people place between themselves is that any great material from then on from another camp is trivialized. We argue about some bovine defecation screen shot while ignoring the most thought provoking video (not this one) that I have posted. The video I refer to as thought provoking still has me pondering it a day later. | ||
| Ratbuell |
conventional, old school, war that kills lots of innocent people while the Elites are safe in their mansions. So...go surgical. | ||
| Hootowl |
RD. I just like to argue.  | ||
| H0gwash |
I confess, I do too. I find it a good way to break out of unseen information ghetto I am in, which I value greatly. I try be less combative and more civil to try and elicit more constructive responses, but challenging ideas is inherently confrontational. | ||
| Ourdee |
My purpose in starting this thread was to wake everyone up to the thought of being prepared. I think all threads devolve sooner or later. We have gotten into the time frame where people will start going back to their old routines and not worry so much. We will soon treat the death and sickness like we have treated the illness around us in the past. We all carry viruses. Will there be another wave? Probably. Will the few very rich keep reaching for control and sucking the life out of others through the use of vaccination protocols mandated through government manipulation of laws? Yes. | ||
| Macbuell |
The problem with arguing today is no one listens. They just yell at each other. Good points by either side are just ignored. This is the problem with society as a whole. We will never solve any problems if we cannot at least try to see and/or understand the other sides point of view. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/w hy_did_the_nih_fund_wuhan_labs.html Surgical, my preference, would be a better idea than, say, sponsoring a coup and the murder of Qadaffi in Libya to give the country to the Muslim Brotherhood, Obama's buddies. I doubt we could do the same for the Chinese Muslim groups, too much racism in China, nor would I want to. But even if I could push a button and turn Xi Jinping into a smoking grease spot with an orbital laser, ( Real Genius ) how much would that slow the conquest of Taiwan? What changes when the leadership passes from the obvious ego dude to a relative unknown? While grateful for the keys to power being handed to him, he's going to blame us publicly, so what actually changes? No, it's going to take an internal counter revolution, and the death toll is going to be enormous. I'd expect an external war to be triggered to distract the protesters, so Taiwan, Japan, and maybe Indonesia are going to be targeted. As will our Carrier and naval bases. All this belongs in the Patriot thread, to keep my speculation from distracting from the OP reports on this ( possibly deliberate act of war with Weapons of Mass Destruction by the Communist Party China ) plague. | ||
| Blake |
Tom: >>> "it's gone far closer to linear"? I't now appears that it's gone past linear and is starting to transition into the deceleration phase, where the daily death rate is bending downwards, just like it has in Europe and elsewhere, meaning decelerating. It started to transition to the linear phase two weeks ago, which I thought was our discussion point. We now have the data, aka science. >>> you question the fact that this happened pretty much exactly one incubation period after states started taking lock downs seriously? You really think mitigation had nothing to do with this change? I hate the term "lock down". I don't know any actual implementation of an actual "lock down", but it could be a VERY strategic use of language manipulation to get people conditioned to the idea. It's how the LEFTISTS work. Don't fall for it. Recommended shelter at home is the accurate characterization, despite the ludicrous incidents of petty little authoritarians authoritating as they are prone to do. I digress. I don't know what precisely instigated the transition to linear phase. It seems like mitigation efforts it would be at least partly the cause, but "seems like" is the enemy of science. A few questions are vital to understanding and bounding the envelope of possibilities: The death rate began to transition to linear phase when? About two weeks ago, yes? See the linear best fit plot above. It takes how long on average for victims to manifest symptoms and succumb to the disease? Two weeks? If as two recent anti-body random population studies now show, the virus has asymptomatically infected some 50 to 85 times more people than has been indicated by clinical testing of symptomatic patients, then the disease's mortality rate is roughly what? And the true Ro is roughly what? Why is Angela Merkel, a PhD inphysical chemistry, demonstrably LYING about the character of the epidemic in her country? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-16 /merkel-s-covid-19-math-goes-viral-thanks-to-simpl e-explanation And the pandemic trajectory will naturally do what MUCH more rapidly than previously anticipated given the MUCH greater infection rate revealed by random anti-body population testing? Virulent epidemic trajectory left unchecked begins to decelerate at roughly what population infection proportion? Herd immunity instantiates at around 50% infection! and causes death rate to essentially go to ZERO. That's not what the question is asking about. The question is: At what population infection percentage does the mortality trajectory of a virulent epidemic, 3>Ro>1, turn linear, and secondly when does it begin to decelerate? If you cannot answer those basic questions, then you cannot hope to evaluate the possible affects of any mitigation efforts. Every virulent epidemic naturally follows a bell curve trajectory. Small pox, Ro = 6, killed 80-90% of native Americans. The trajectory of a viral epidemic with significant incubation time doesn't care much whether it's victims die or gain immunity. The trajectory will initially accelerate exponentially, then transition to a linear phase, then a deceleration phase, then a linear decline, and finally an asymptotic type approach to zero. It does that naturally absent any mitigation. To scientifically characterize the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, we'd need to analyze multiple populations that did and did not implement mitigation policies, account for all causal factors, and try to discern a solid correlation AND covariance between mitigation efforts and death rates. The experts seem to have discerned that. But they were operating on an assumed infection rate that was apparently WAY underestimated. Let the data speak for itself. It now indicates that there is no stopping the virus. (Message edited by Blake on April 18, 2020) | ||
| Blake |
The majority of those infected appear to be asymptomatic. https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015 /blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-c ovid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/ https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14 .20062463v1.full.pdf https://www.businessinsider.com/testing-reveals-mo st-aircraft0-carrier-sailors-coronavirus-had-no-sy mptoms-2020-4 The aircraft carrier crew may well also have a number of recovered, crew that no longer have the virus, just the antibody, which apparently has yet to be tests for on the ship. Why some are spinning this news as troubling is very strange to me. Don't we wish that all the population were asymptomatic? The more the better I say. | ||
| Ourdee |
My neighbors next door are having a virus party. They call it a Birthday party. It has happened every week end. I keep watching to see if any of them drop out from week to week. So far they all seem to be hanging in there. I wonder if South Korea will have troubles from not getting enough infected for the herd. I still think I had it already. | ||
| Hootowl |
I suspect I have as well. No way to know without an antibody test. I was in a meeting with about twenty people from Microsoft, SAP, and a service integrator. Everyone from my company who attended got sick several days later. This was in early Feb. We all commented that whatever it was must have been highly contagious. My symptoms included some gurgling in my lungs when I exhaled fully. May have been covid19, may not have been. | ||
| Blake |
Tom, old friend: I watched that entire "Planning to Fail" video. <sigh> It was painful to watch. I took notes. Here they are: Summary of a lot of mind rot pretending to be actual information: A brand new future is coming unlike anything we e seen! Never says what that is. Says that 34,000 deaths is "staggering". Says that France's 17,000 dead should be "ominous." Blah blah blah blah Global doubling time is "only 12 days" from 1M to 2M cases. (Need I remind that Cases are garbage data) Dwells on ratio of deaths divided by confirmed cases, blah, blah, blah ... Notes that death lags case confirmation... blah, blah, blah... (Playing with junk data, aka "cases" to get what he wants, a stable ratio. Garbage.) Concludes that true cases fatality is ~7%, cause it "makes sense, seems logical." (Pure garbage, scientifically speaking). "Honey Badger virus"? Actually says that confirmed cases is an unreliable number. (Duh! But use it as the basis for his analyses anyway. What's even more unreliable is the correlation,of cases over time, since early one testing was sparse, but is now getting to nearly be comprehensive.) Rebuts argument by Dr. Phil about danger of economic shutdown by picking on one mis-statement about swimming pool deaths. Gossips about the Dr's credentials. (This jerk is a class A gossipy, narcissistic turd.) Ludicrously fraudulent presentation of data trying to freak people out about virus death rate per week while dismissing flu. (Thinks virus is stil exponential. Pure mind rotting misinformation/garbage.) Blah, blah, blah protesters with no masks, dummies. Masks, masks, masks, but dummies. No mention of surface contact spread. Masks! Cause, look at a picture from 1918. Says he doesn't do left right, only up/down using facts, doesn't do left right, cause they're all dummies. He's superior. WHO sucks, waited until March 11 to declare pandemic. Says to defund them. Says incentive works. Fire the failers. (Possibly the singularly cogent thoughts in the entire video) Sec. of treasury class warfare speal. Says "It's really that grotesque", leaders saying $1200 is sufficient to bridge downtime for a month. (Doesn't mention that it's $2400 for a working couple.) Notes S&P 500 recent gains with sarcasm, more class warfare speal Says you can't buy actual gold. Uh... Says its rigged and a conspiracy by rich people. Never notes the net state of the market relative to prior to cv, $29K, now $24k, still down over 15%. Says It's pure havok. They (financial/economic authorities) have no idea what to do. That they're actions are so shallow... Says to plant a garden cause tough times are coming, and have water too. Advertises the Burkey (sp?) water filter. Says he'll call you out no matter who you are if you do a bad job. The arrogance and snark are off the chart, and along with all the unsubstantiated blabbering opinion it made the video excruciating to watch for me. He didn't once mention any of the recent studies or findings about the MASSIVE proportion of asymptomatic cases being found and leading to disease mortalities nearer to those of the flu. But that would be good news and would refute his entire ridiculous speal. I want my half hour back. I'm sorry man, that was sensationalistic con man speal, mind rot, pure garbage. I feel polluted and nauseous for having watched it. Stick with actual hard scientific data. Eschew the charlatans. (Message edited by blake on April 18, 2020) | ||
| Ourdee |
Thanks for saving me a half hour Blake. Only good info was the Berkey. I have one with black filters and flouride/arsnic filters. Can filter pond water. I use it on Indianapolis city water for making tea and cooking. https://www.berkeywaterfilter.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobC hMI-oXb7Yzz6AIVDisMCh0QaQ3MEAAYASAAEgLzHvD_BwE | ||
| Hootowl |
I filter my pond water with a gravel bog.  | ||
| Ourdee |
Do you drink it after the gravel bog? | ||
| Hootowl |
Nah. Goes right back in the pond, then it’s pond water again. The fish seem to like it. And while I sometimes drink like a fish, I’ve never sampled their water. | ||
| Ourdee |
 | ||
| Sifo |
Blake, You astound me. You denounce any data you don't like, even though it's some of the best data we have, as incomplete as it is. Then you talk up data that is take from a sampling of some of the worst hot spots in the world, and try to act like it's going to be representative of the world. That sort of data, while informative, is far more flawed than the confirmed cases statistic. It's great to know that young health sailors who are in very good shape can weather this well in many cases. I wonder how many were truly asymptomatic vs. just ignored symptoms because that's what they do. Do you think the same applies to the population at large? The town in Germany? “To me it looks like we don’t yet have a large fraction of the population exposed,” says Nicholas Christakis, a doctor and social science researcher at Yale University. “They had carnivals and festivals, but only 14% are positive. That means there is a lot more to go even in a hard-hit part of Germany.” Yes, there's a long ways to go. Most places will have longer to go than this town in Germany. "From the result of their blood survey, the German team estimated the death rate in the municipality at 0.37% overall, a figure significantly lower than what’s shown on a dashboard maintained by Johns Hopkins, where the death rate in Germany among reported cases is 2%." Interesting. So it's likely 3.7 times as deadly as the flu according to this study. I wonder what the "true" death rate of the flu would be if we did this sort of testing though. It's an estimate. Garbage as you would call it. No doubt though, if we tested people like this for the flu, we would find many more people who had it without giving it much thought. The flu death rate would also fall under this sort of scrutiny. One final thing about this. Germany, for whatever reason is reporting a CFR less than half the rest of the world. I can only speculate why this might be, but it seems likely that their estimated (isn't that the same as garbage?) death rate of 0.37% is also likely skewed similarly. Shall we call it around 7 or 8 times as deadly as the flu, but also much more contagious? Not a good combo! So based on earlier estimates of how contagious it is (you make the case that it's much more contagious) it was supposed to take about 80% of the population to be infected before we have good herd immunity (you know what that is now, don't you?). Taking that 14% infected rate of the German town (of course most of the world would be well below that mark) we would be seeing about 6 times the infections we now have before this ends. Expect about 6 times the deaths too. Call it 230,000 dead? Wasn't this entire debate about if it was worse than the flu or not? Keep in mind, I used many assumptions that weight all of the above in your favor. Reality may just be far worse. The really annoying part of this discussion is that anything that doesn't support your view point, you discard as garbage. At the same time you cherry pick the data you like, even though that data is no more reliable. You claim to be about good science, but your actions show that to be a load of BS. You disregard how epidemiologists do their work, but clearly don't have a background in that your self. Your "review" of the video is more ad hominem attack than addressing any issues. You discount proven measures such as social distancing and wearing of masks. Sorry to say, but if this wasn't a serious issue, your efforts would be laughable. | ||
| Sifo |
Not looking good for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in 3 controlled studies. Malaria drugs fail to help coronavirus patients in controlled studies
| ||
| Sifo |
And regarding the comments in the video about the US printing money to fix the economy, I can't possibly be the only one around here with serious concerns about that. | ||
| Sifo |
Blah, blah, blah protesters with no masks, dummies. Masks, masks, masks, but dummies. No mention of surface contact spread. Masks! Cause, look at a picture from 1918. You do understand that the virus can't enter through your skin, don't you? Even with surface contact, a mask will go a long way to remind you to not touch your nose or mouth, the entry to your respiratory system where the virus thrives. But blah, blah, blah, what could possibly go wrong? It's just as irresponsible as encouraging people to celebrate the Chinese New Year in NYC. I recognize the right to protest, and they have some worthwhile points, but they would have been on much firmer ground demonstrating that they can be responsible enough to be allowed out in public to go about their daily lives. Instead they showed a lack of caring about the potential hazards that they potentially exposed others to. They did not help their case at all. | ||
| Blake |
Tom, It was a bunch of bloviating. Little to no science. Science would be the two random population studies and data from the Theodore Roosevelt. But they're from hotspots? So hotspots are no good for doing science concerning a pandemic? Please explain. That's actual hard scientific data. Not like the article you quoted that talks about high strength dosing of malaria medicine, no indication of the cocktail that doctors all over the planet are now prescribing. HydroxyChloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin or another antibiotic. I'm guess they were only testing the chloroquine on its own. They don't indicate otherwise. That was never the "game changer". That was the cocktail. Stick to the hard data. Here's more: https://www.foxnews.com/science/third-blood-sample s-massachusetts-study-coronavirus (Link to original study reporting in the news piece.) It ain't about me or anybody. Stick to the data. I don't have another solution than what the govt is doing. I'm not up on it all. Seems excessive on many counts. (Message edited by blake on April 18, 2020) | ||
| Blake |
Tom: Infection ratio doesn't need to achieve herd immunity to achieve desirable effects. It's why ALL virulent epidemics slow and decline BEFORE herd immunity is achieved. As suggested by the three anti-body test results, that could be why we are now seeing a decline. Or it could be mitigation measures, or a combination of both. We Don't Know. That requires cold hard data, enough to get solid statistical results, correlation and covariance, that shows what happened. Best we can do now is to get testing for antibodies and the virus to even higher levels. (Message edited by Blake on April 18, 2020) | ||
| Gregtonn |
Blake, Unfortunately it seems we are playing chess with a pigeon. G | ||
| 86129squids |
  We need data. Proven data that will allow us to determine a bit of the future. More tests, MANY more. Until we know, KNOW, we have beaten back/dead this bug, nothing will return to what we knew as "normal". Arguments are crucial nowadays. Bless you argumentative folk, support the scientists. | ||
| Aesquire |
I question any MSN report with politics involved. The posted above, unfortunately is high politics. However, if believable, then it makes sense that overdosing patients with one drug of a three drug cocktail would be ineffective and a bit dangerous. Iirc, the third drug was an antibiotic to prevent bacterial pneumonia. The other 2 being hydroxychloroquine & zinc in some form. I'm skeptical... Heck, that's my default. Zinc lozenges and nasal goo were fad cold nostrums years ago. ( drugs that were untested by clinical trials to the point they could be big money makers as prescription drugs. Sold as diet supplements with very little quality control or proven safety or usefulness. ) Iirc the nose goo version may have caused loss of sense of smell & taste. Remember, little QC, so high probability of irregular dosing, and being heavily advertised on radio and tv, people would overdose anyway. ( I remember Rush waxing poetic about how he used it at the first hint of a cold, which is how such things, IF they work, work best, ditto the "cocktail" for Pooh's Breath ) Did zinc work? For colds, that is? I don't know. Much like vitamin C preventive therapy, it may have helped boost immune response to lessen the severity and length of colds, as advertised. I had mild positive results, but after warnings didn't repeat. I had multiple colds each year when I was working an extreme exposure job, with a literally planetary customer, thus exposure, contact, daily. That was a job where a mask would be insulting. ( and masks mostly stop you from touching your face, but that's a LOT ) I personally don't use cold symptom relief drugs. I WANT to get stuffed up and thus raise the temperature in my nose to virus killing levels. As an outdoor worker expected to tough out mere colds, I seldom could just sit in a steamy hot room and accelerate the process. To their credit, most of the zinc cold potion makers did not claim to cure viral infection, Just to improve your own body's natural response. And you DO need to be cautious that such drugs don't over stimulate the immune system, which can lead to other, debilitating and deadly problems. ( The whole nasty range of autoimmune diseases ) Does the " cocktail" work? There's some evidence, and full double blind tests are now ongoing. There is a morality issue in doing double blind tests on any disease, Especially ones that can be fatal. You may be deliberately letting a human die, when you MIGHT be able to save them. The "double" in double blind is both to prevent bias of the medical personnel from affecting the results, AND insulating them from the moral responsibility. Some people refuse to participate in human trials at all to avoid the moral conundrum. | ||
| Ratbuell |
Um...whoops. https://calmatters.org/health/coronavirus/2020/04/ california-coronavirus-face-masks-gavin-newsom-byd / Not only politically stupid, but looks like money well spent: https://www.businessinsider.com/coroanvirus-hollan d-recalls-over-half-a-million-masks-imported-from- china-2020-3 | ||
| Aesquire |
Makes you wonder how much the Chinese company donated to his campaign. For about six years bribing Barack Obama was the best investment in the country. Solyndra, for example. And the college chum of Michelle Obama, who got the Billion dollar contract for the broken Obamacare website. ( But only after a half million cash bribe, no favoritism there! ) Any bets on criminal prosecution? $5 says he gets away with the corruption. Another buck that faulty gear from this deal murders some nurses. | ||
| Tpehak |
Second wave is coming! | ||
| Aesquire |
As the methodology of the count is uncertain, varies by country, even by county in the U.S., You should not take any raw numbers as quantitatively gospel. Useless for comparison purpose. The relative numbers, over time, are also subject to changes in the ways you count, causing unreal jumps and dips, over time. Keep in mind this isn't necessarily eeevil! Yes, a county sheriff may be censoring news, but as tests become more available, and the choices for who to test change, you will get discontinuity, that can be mistaken for a real change that hadn't in fact taken place. One of our species talents is pattern recognition. It's how we see the tiger in the bush. And we apply this ability in many ways. However, we also see patterns in randomness, if order is lacking, we create it. Just advice learned from trying to see the patterns that cheating creates. In my case creating and setting up data collecting feedback systems in industrial processes... Aka bullying a bunch of prima donnas into sticking the part in a gauge & taking a reading, as they take samples of the thing their machine produces. It's extra, annoying work for the machine operator. Thus temptation to cheat, and the need to detect cheating. ( The solution is to simplify, automate, the feedback technologies, which then makes the job easier. )...( Which unfortunately often leads to taking the human out of the loop entirely by making it robotic. ) However, the techniques of feedback integration are fairly widely applicable. Human interference with the data stream is often detectable by looking at the randomness and other patterns. I "see" a lot of cheating going on, but suspect that's actually not much different in magnitude than the 1950s or 1700s. The error bars are still pretty broad on Covid-19. The noise level is high. My feel is & pure opinion, that Pooh's Breath is worse in some metrics than average seasonal flu. I'm not married to that view. |
