| Author | Message | ||
     Blake |
Tom, Yes, pretty sure the exponential phase is over for USA, just like it has been for every nation at the same relative point in the pandemic. But I could be wrong. Yesterday's mortality took another jump. Here's a quick Excel best-fit analysis:  The R2 for the exponential is for the entire dataset, where the linear is for the last 7 days. So not an apples to apples. I was surprised when you wrote that "mortality is stopped if you stop the disease.' From what I've heard, short of vaccinations for all, there is no "stopping" the disease until it has it's way with us. We're just trying to blunt the curve and extend it to avoid overtaxing the hospitals. Let's hope the medicinals work. | ||
| Blake |
If you read the following and continue to purchase products "made in China" for which there are alternates made elsewhere, or it's something that you can do without, then we can't be friends. "In mid-March, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) told Fox News of an article in Xinhua, the Chinese state-run media agency, that stated: “If China retaliates against the United States at this time, in addition to announcing a travel ban on the United States, it will also announce strategic control over medical products and ban exports to the United States. Then the United States will be caught in the ocean of new coronaviruses … Also according to the U.S. CDC officials, most of the drugs in the United States are imported…If China banned exports, the United States will fall into the hell of a new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic … We should say righteously that the U.S. owes China an apology, the world owes China a ‘thank you.’" ... "Today, most active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used for drugs in the United States are made in China, including 95% of U.S. imports of ibuprofen, 70% of acetaminophen, and 40-45% of Penicillin. This vulnerable state of affairs is due to the Chinese Communist Party having spent a generation cornering this strategic market." https://www.dailywire.com/news/report-american-com panies-are-leaving-china | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/g od_help_us_all_dr_fauci_knows_exactly_what_hes_doi ng.html One of many slams on Dr. Fauci. I have an open mind on him, being too busy ready to burn the White House press corpse to slow the spread of stupidity. | ||
| Sifo |
https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62065/ References the jump to humans ( or accidental release ) in November. But doesn't detail why that conclusion. My question was about you saying you thought if "hit our shores" around that time. Certainly possible. Plausible even. I just don't know of any evidence supporting it. Here's what that link says about it...
The whole things starts with "let's say". Not convincing that it's anything but hypothetical. He really lost me when he claimed that, in this hypothetical, because the Seattle outbreak came from the Chinese strain, that it had to have happened by mid January. Just because there's a new strain going around, doesn't mean the old strain died off. But it's just a hypothetical example, so no need to examine it too much. | ||
| Sifo |
Tom, Yes, pretty sure the exponential phase is over for USA, just like it has been for every nation at the same relative point in the pandemic. But I could be wrong. Yesterday's mortality took another jump. Here's a quick Excel best-fit analysis: Let's just say, scientifically speaking of course, that's on pretty shaky ground A couple of days of non-exponential data, followed by exponential increase again isn't exactly what I would call strong evidence of a trend change. Especially considering that, depending on the source of data, you won't see that same break in the data. Not saying that one source is better than another, just that it's a very dynamic situation, and the counting isn't always up to date at all times. I do hope you are right though, and the exponential increase in new cases has broken for a few days now, according to the data I'm watching. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ us/ I still worry what will happen as people head back to "normal" life. This thing is far from over. | ||
| Court |
I could have sworn I saw a listing of tweets by Dems referring the the pandemic as no big deal. Last night I was forced to watch 2 minutes of Republicans, Pres and others, suggesting folks ignore and “go out and enjoy your life as normal”. I’d love to find that tweet post. :-) (Message edited by Court on April 08, 2020) | ||
| Court |
This is the one I had sent to me . . . . . Kind of underscores how poorly things were handled at every level. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/coronavirus-supercu t-pandumbic-daily-show_n_5e882bbec5b6e7d76c643190 | ||
| Court |
Would not the predicted exponential growth have had us way above the current 13,000 deaths ? I keep recalling those bleed 250,000 to 1,000,000” potential deaths. | ||
| Sifo |
Predicted by who? Not me. Not sources I've been posting. I'm sure you can find those though. Forecasting something that far out, that can be changed by changing behavior is just foolish IMO. I could possibly see the lower end of that by the time it's over though. I can also see that we could find preventative pharmaceuticals that will hold it far below that level. I will point out though, the current social measures were sold to us on the idea of "flattening the curve". I think that's pretty much what we are seeing. That doesn't mean a huge decrease in the numbers that get infected, it just takes longer to hit the numbers. Buying time has it's pluses. | ||
| Hughlysses |
The ladies from San Francisco have released their mask plans in 2 variations and with several recommendations for filter materials: https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0050/2474/3524/f iles/Suay_Mask_Pattern_2020.pdf Looks pretty simple to make. | ||
| 86129squids |
Hugh- my sweetie Marcia has devised a method of making masks from puppy pads and rubber bands, even s/m/l sizes. Very simple. She's even figured how to crochet circles instead of rubber bands. I believe I've posted my own ugly mug with one earler. If you all want, I'll upload a series of pics showing how she makes them. Right now I've gotta head out and rescue her, car's dead with a bad battery connection.  | ||
| Court |
Interesting info on masks. . . . https://princetonlongevitycenter.com/research-upda tes-on-covid-19-masks-more/?utm_source=sendinblue& utm_campaign=Covid19_Newsletter&utm_medium=email | ||
| Sami |
Italy: Only 12% of “Covid19 deaths” list Covid19 as cause Report shows up to 88% of Italy’s alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/23/italy-only-12- of-covid19-deaths-list-covid19-as-cause/ | ||
| Ratbuell |
Exactly what happened to a friend of mine's mother. "My mom just died of COVID". Um. Your mom who had heart problems already? Patient died from COVID-19. Patient had COVID-19, and died from heart disease / lung cancer / emphysema / pneumonia that was pre-existing. Difference. | ||
| Sami |
Misattribution causes overreaction. The sad thing is that Fauci prefers overreaction. He even mentions Italy to argue that overreaction is the right thing to do. Why he's allowed to keep his job saying these things is beyond me. Fauci: 'If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing' https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/487 639-fauci-if-it-looks-like-youre-overreacting-your e-probably-doing-the | ||
| Tpehak |
If coronavirus would not exist those dead people with preexisting conditions would be alive. | ||
| Hughlysses |
If coronavirus would not exist those dead people with preexisting conditions would be alive. That's a fair statement. Scott Adams talked about this today. For instance, it's possible that someone with a coronary artery disease just happened to have a heart attack immediately after they contracted COVID-19, but odds are the COVID is what precipitated their death. They may have lived another month, ~19 years, or even more if not for the COVID. On the flip side, they're pretty sure a substantial number of people are dying at home in places like NYC without ever being diagnosed, so those would be COVID deaths that haven't been counted. It's possible that the pluses and minuses cancel out so that the official death toll from the disease is at least in the ballpark. | ||
| Sifo |
I'm sure that the family of someone with terminal cancer, 3 months to live, would want a drunk driver held accountable for killing that family member 3 months before the cancer was estimated to do. Cause of death would undoubtedly be the accident, NOT cancer. Same thing with any disease. | ||
| Tpehak |
All non essential activities has been banned here in Seattle at least up to May 4th and residents must stay home. | ||
| Blake |
Tom, >>> >>> Yes, pretty sure the exponential phase is over for USA, just like it has been for every nation at the same relative point in the pandemic. But I could be wrong. Yesterday's mortality took another jump. Here's a quick Excel best-fit analysis: >>>Let's just say, scientifically speaking of course, that's on pretty shaky ground. "Let's just say, scientifically speaking..."? <incredulous stare> Tom, I posted the results of an actual data analyses with a linear best-fit to the last seven days, not "a couple of days." A best-fit exponential curve was also shown, just for the whole dataset. It's relatively poor fit also shows that prior exponential behavior has ceased. In addition to the data analysis, the principle of inference was employed relative to other nation's pandemic curve trajectories, noting that as the same relative point, those too transformed from exponential to linear behavior. Your reasoning is self contradictory. You're asserting that looking at a string of seven data points is questionable (I actually agree, which explains my "I could be wrong" qualifier.), but then offer up one data point as a counter? More time will tell. One thing we know for certain, the exponential phase will end, and if Italy and Spain and the EU in general are decent proxies for the USA, it will end sooner rather than later. Let's just say.. that rhetoric is not science. If you can show a data analysis that supports the idea of a continued exponential growth in mortality, you'll have a case. Otherwise, let's just say...  | ||
| Slaughter |
Beta-testing the O2 hoods today. Still working on the Ventilators which are a far more complex problem but are also in low rate production. Kinda does you proud when you realize these were all done in less than 3 weeks' time since requirements were defined (more videos in link). All open source, all downloadable. Regulatory agencies are fast-track reviewing for use here and overseas. https://virginorbit.com/ventilators/
(Message edited by slaughter on April 08, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
New stuff going on. Lots of it not very good. Strange virus. Just in case anyone cares to be informed... | ||
| Court |
Steve: Frickin’ Awesome! Well done. Court | ||
| Blake |
Pretty cool Steve! But how is Jon supposed to smoke his cigar in that thing? | ||
| 86129squids |
I am viscerally creeped out by COVID19. My first 25ish years of life was spent with an asthma inhaler in my pocket. I praise God that I've grown out of that. I remember the sheer bliss and comfort of a nebulizer and oxygen after being hospitalized. Just talking/thinking about lung problems gets me going. Let us all pray for a solution, STAT. | ||
| Tpehak |
What if coronavirus can infect trees and plants? | ||
| 86129squids |
What kind of moron are you? | ||
| Crusty |
The trolling kind. | ||
| Sami |
Tpehak: ''What if coronavirus can infect trees and plants?'' If coronavirus can infect trees and plants, then vegans are in big trouble. Some guy named Tom Barnett says that you can't catch a virus. I watched his video and he claims that viruses cannot be caught from other people, let alone from other species. In any case, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. | ||
| Tpehak |
If coronavirus will mutate it might infect plants so you better be prepared. |
