| Author | Message | ||
     Ducbsa |
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020 /04/03/fact-check-did-obama-administration-deplete -n-95-mask-stockpile/5114319002/ | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/has -covid-19-peaked-in-the-u-s.php Take with grain of salt. I put down Celt & Norse. ( census ) My mother had my parent's DNA tested, and the results keep changing as the data from around the world come in. Since the results are in percentages, there's a real parallel to the ongoing dispute of curves and trajectories. I had originally thought I had some native American blood, ( Not enough to claim tribal membership ) based on the same kind of family stories that the rich white, white, white, woman Presidential hopeful claims to have based her fraud on. Further research shows that is a different branch in the family tree. A surprise is how Hispanic I am. In the second biggest gun losing boating accident than the N.Y. SAFE act, the Spanish Armada went down off Ireland and a few good swimmers made it ashore. Illegal immigrants! The loss of life was much greater than in N.Y. ( so far ) It's funny, there are a statistically unlikely number of professional lifeguards in my family. I once swam across Canandaigua lake on a course equal in length to the Dover-Calais English channel crossing. ( which took the Channel crossing off my bucket list. I could do it, but why? The work to fun ratio is high & I wouldn't be the first, or the first American. ) https://www.dover.uk.com/channel-swimming/ If you want anecdotal evidence of evolution, & there's a swimming gene...  Irish is a term of origin, and since it's an island with a fairly homogeneous population, a people, and an ethnicity. Homogeneous mixture of natives and invaders, Norse, Brits, and the aforementioned Spanish sailors. I usually just claim Pale Blue Northern People.  | ||
| Ducbsa |
Some funnies here: https://www.bookwormroom.com/2020/04/02/bookworm-b eat-4-2-20-the-coronavirus-laughs-never-stop-illus trated-edition/ | ||
| Sami |
Race is a category of the mind. Ethnicity is a category of nature. Gender is a category of the mind. Sex is a category of nature. | ||
| Hootowl |
Hmm. Until a few years ago, sex and gender were synonyms. I think this is just another example of the left coopting words to advance their agenda. | ||
| Aesquire |
Good laugh Ducbsa! I loved the MASH video. We beat Powerline to several of these. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/the -week-in-pictures-the-great-hunkering-edition.php Btw, I approve of the thread name change. Guesses as to when the shutdown will end vary from end of April, to end of June, to however long we can milk this to look good. ( or steal stuff, pick your own spin ) | ||
| Sifo |
Tom: The CDC recently said that as many of 25% of people infected may be asymptomatic. https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/01/cdc-one-in-four -people-coronavirus-symptoms/ Give a listen to Dr. Birx's answer concerning that issue: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KGQpp3pls8 And you claim we have some herd immunity at this point based on that? | ||
| Court |
Hahaha..... I always find myself entertained by. All the institutions, intent on not discriminating, who refuse to let me click on “submit” until I respond to the race question. They eventually wised up and no longer accept “ love to” or “ as an amateur” so I’ve gone with Earthling. What a shame. These are the same folks who provide me a shopping list of “acceptable pronouns” in their e-mail signature. Institutions of higher learning are at risk of becoming havens for those who have failed to learn. | ||
| Tpehak |
Where is the coronavirus thread? | ||
| Ratbuell |
I don't look at that as "herd immunity"...I look at it as drastically changing the numbers that we know nothing substantial about in the first place. Again - deaths per population, not deaths per symptomatic. Because, if there are that many people who never show symptoms (and I still suspect its much more than 1 in 4 - either that, or the 1:3 transmittance ratio is way off)...this thing doesn't kill nearly as many people as initial reports made it sound like. Example. 100 people. 2 have symptoms. One of those 2 dies. That's a 50% ratio, if you only look at symptomatics. BUT. There's 98 people in the "unknown" column. It could possibly be a ONE PERCENT fatality rate (if all 100 people actually had the illness, but 98 were asymptomatic), as opposed to a FIFTY PERCENT, just based on that one variable. That is a BIG variable, and until we have a better handle on what the value in that column actually is? All the models and all the guesswork and all the panic is simply pissing up a rope. Wash your hands. Control what you can control. If you're paralyzed by fear, stay the hell home. Spreading gloom and doom helps NOBODY. Want to help? Go harvest some data. Administer some tests, to help fill in that unknown column. But until that happens...forecasts aren't worth dick. | ||
| Sifo |
I March 27 I had this exchange with Ratbuell... http://www.badweatherbikers.com/cgibin/discus/show .cgi?tpc=4062&post=2690113#POST2690113
It's been just over a week and we've gone from 1,300 US deaths to 7,163. Over 1,300 from yesterday. It's looking like the "models" were off by closer to 10 days, not the 2 weeks I had estimated. Still pretty close to the doubling of every 4-5 days that I claimed. It's a shame more folks won't listen to the epidemiologists. They might just have a clue about what they are talking about. | ||
| Sami |
Hootowl: ''Hmm. Until a few years ago, sex and gender were synonyms. I think this is just another example of the left coopting words to advance their agenda.'' They aren't synonyms, at least not anymore. ''Sex'' and ''ethnicity'' are categories of nature, aka they correspond to reality. ''Gender'' and ''race'' are categories of the mind, aka they do not correspond to reality, especially because they have been co-opted as you say to advance Leftist agenda. I don't care about ''gender'' and ''race'', because these are categories of the mind and they have been redefined to suit Leftist identity politics. ''Sex'' and ''ethnicity'' are real, though, which is why Leftists are trying to replace these with ''gender'' and ''race''. | ||
| Sifo |
I don't look at that as "herd immunity"...I look at it as drastically changing the numbers that we know nothing substantial about in the first place. Again - deaths per population, not deaths per symptomatic. Because, if there are that many people who never show symptoms (and I still suspect its much more than 1 in 4 - either that, or the 1:3 transmittance ratio is way off)...this thing doesn't kill nearly as many people as initial reports made it sound like. Example. 100 people. 2 have symptoms. One of those 2 dies. That's a 50% ratio, if you only look at symptomatics. BUT. There's 98 people in the "unknown" column. It could possibly be a ONE PERCENT fatality rate (if all 100 people actually had the illness, but 98 were asymptomatic), as opposed to a FIFTY PERCENT, just based on that one variable. That is a BIG variable, and until we have a better handle on what the value in that column actually is? All the models and all the guesswork and all the panic is simply pissing up a rope. But we have zero evidence of anything near 98% being asymptomatic. The epidemiologists, who do this crap for a living do have some data on that from the testing that has been done. They seem to be putting it in the 20-25% range. Here's the scary thing though. Let's for a moment assume you are more or less correct about it having that high of an asymptomatic rate. That means there are many more people who have been infected than the experts believe. That means that the infection rate would have to be much higher than the 1:3 ratio. That in turn means that without doing something to stop it, almost every person in the US (applies to the world too) will get infected before it burns out. That in turn means over 6,000,000 deaths in the US. Is that something that you find acceptable so that you can go on conducting business as usual? | ||
| Tpehak |
Do you think dinosaurs died due to coronavirus? | ||
| Hootowl |
Sami said: “They aren't synonyms, at least not anymore.” I said: “Until a few years ago, sex and gender were synonyms” There doesn’t appear to be any daylight between those two positions. So we agree that the left has stolen the word gender for their own purposes? | ||
| Sifo |
Stealing and re-purposing words. It's one of the things the left loves to do. Then they tell you not to label them.  | ||
| Sifo |
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| Sami |
Hootowl, we agree on that. They steal and redefine words, that's what they do. Ducks quack, dogs bark, cows moo, the Left steals and redefines. | ||
| Gregtonn |
Sifo, You were doing pretty good until you got to "That means..." then you fell flat on your face. G | ||
| Ratbuell |
We don't have anything suggesting it's NOT 98% asymptomatic, either. We don't have the data. Period. End of sentence. We. Don't. Have. The. Data. Anything beyond that, is pure speculation. *I* haven't died from COVID. That's a 0% fatality rate for that sample. YOU haven't died from it either - wow, we just doubled our sample size and that PROVES a 0% fatality rate. Right? See? Pure speculation. If a+b=c...and you don't know the value of "b"...well....how the hell are you supposed to figure out what "c" is? | ||
| Hughlysses |
Update on hydroxychloroquine: | ||
| Court |
Appears folks stand a small % of dying ..... and a significant % of becoming amateur statisticians. | ||
| Blake |
Tom: >>> And you claim we have some herd immunity at this point based on that? Huh??? You keep putting words in my mouth. I have another friend who does that to me, but he's a staunch Democrat. LOL! We're talking about what the mortality rate may be. That new information informs on that issue, yes? Question: Why do you think that the current rate of doubling every 4.5 days in America will continue when just a week ago the doubling rate was 2-3 days? It seems that you're basing your projections on the assumption that the exponential phase of the epidemic here will continue unabated, which is impossible. Why not recognize that the trajectory here is now transitioning towards the linear phase of the bell shaped curve, meaning a set amount of deaths per day, where the doubling time is constantly decreasing. Don't you see that in the mortality trajectories of Spain and Italy? Why would USA be different? I can actually think of some reasons. More on that later. Back to excel and fun with spreadsheet plotting. My old friend Griz would like to see plots for NY and the Netherlands. | ||
| 86129squids |
On a somewhat positive note, my beautiful brainiac Dominican sweetie Marcia has figured out how to make facemasks out of puppy pads today! Here's a text I sent to my Nextdoor folks and to my (former) coworkers. If anyone here wants a couple of text pics, PM me and I'll get back to you. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Good afternoon all- hope this message finds everyone well, happy and sane. My sweetie has figured out today how to make facemasks out of puppy pads and rubber bands. One puppy pad yields 6 masks with her design. Each pad measures 22" by 23", there are 30 pads per package, so she figures one could produce 180 pads total. An office hole punch is needed, or maybe something similar. My apologies for not having pictures/videos, I'm not the most savvy at such things, but perhaps one could Google or search Youtube for something similar to her design. She bought the pads and rubber bands at Ollie's over by Foothills Mall. Good luck and good health to you all. JBH | ||
| Tpehak |
We are 3D printing and building face masks to donate them to local hospitals. Join the club! https://www.prusa3d.com/covid19/   | ||
| 86129squids |
You must've posted that right when I posted... super good on ya, TP!!!  | ||
| 86129squids |
Oh, and on a super serious note- could anyone hook me up with a link showing how to hang a speed bag? As in boxing. My sweetie's dad taught her boxing years ago, so I got her a speed bag for Christmas but I've not figured how/where to hang it. Given that we're in this quarantine together, I'd really like to get this done to improve my chances of survival with her.  | ||
| 86129squids |
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| Sifo |
Ratbuell, we do have data coming in. You can claim we don't all you want, but it's just a false claim. Just like any other virus, we will never collect every data point. We are testing people daily, adding to the information. It doesn't take too long to start doing statistical analysis. As time goes on, the data gets better. It will never be perfect. Right now the data suggests asymptomatic infections to be in the 20-25% range. That comes from people who do this for a living. Where does your 98% come from? Tom: >>> And you claim we have some herd immunity at this point based on that? Huh??? You keep putting words in my mouth. I have another friend who does that to me, but he's a staunch Democrat. LOL! We're talking about what the mortality rate may be. That new information informs on that issue, yes? Well, I did ask you what you felt was causing the data to curve downward if it wasn't the mitigation being done. You said it eventually runs out of people to infect because the population isn't finite. That is pretty much the definition of herd immunity, when enough of the heard has antibodies that the spread of infection slows and eventually, hopefully, stops. I'm not clear what words I put in your mouth. Question: Why do you think that the current rate of doubling every 4.5 days in America will continue when just a week ago the doubling rate was 2-3 days? It seems that you're basing your projections on the assumption that the exponential phase of the epidemic here will continue unabated, which is impossible. Now who's putting words in someone's mouth? In fact I just posted a link showing I said doubling every 4-5 days on March 27. Where did 2-3 come from a week ago? No doubt the infection rate will slow. I believe it is, and the death rate will follow. I've posted about that just recently too, with a graphic overlaying the 2 data sets. I posted it just last night. You aren't by chance a Democrat, are you? Let me ask again, what do you think is causing the rate of confirmed cases to slow? I'm pretty sure it's NPIs (Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions). Social distancing and the like. Why not recognize that the trajectory here is now transitioning towards the linear phase of the bell shaped curve, meaning a set amount of deaths per day, where the doubling time is constantly decreasing. Don't you see that in the mortality trajectories of Spain and Italy? Why would USA be different? I can actually think of some reasons. More on that later. Back to excel and fun with spreadsheet plotting. My old friend Griz would like to see plots for NY and the Netherlands. Italy and Spain have a ways to go to get a bell shaped curve just yet. Again though, the why of the slow down is critical. If it's because of the NPIs, then a second spike as NPIs are lifted are likely. | ||
| Hootowl |
https://www.foxnews.com/health/half-people-coronav irus-have-no-symptoms-data-show Up to 50% have no symptoms. |
