| Author | Message | ||
     Court |
Just my opinion....knowing who Slaughter is . . . . That he is likely INTIMATELY familiar with all that behind the curtain of secrecy stuff. Just a guess. :-) | ||
| Mnscrounger |
I did say "might"..I wouldn't call anything I'm involved with secret, just not interesting enough to be newsworthy. I am glad there are a lot of folks smarter than me working on the ventilator issue. My simple stuff can be produced in a matter of days, I just hope its not needed. | ||
| Tpehak |
Are the tests show people with ventilator have more chances to survive than people without ventilator? | ||
| Court |
Correct. In patients exhibiting acute respiratory complications. While others patients present no such implications. | ||
| Reindog |
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| Aesquire |
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/30/ letter-to-washington-coronavirus-panic-buying-1523 14 FEAR AND LOATHING at Sam's club. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://spectator.org/the-20-solution-to-coronavir us-anecdotal-evidence-is-a-life-saver/ The most telling factoid is the lack of massive pandemic in Africa where HCQ tablets are in common prophylactic use against malaria. Frankly I had assumed we just didn't have reliable information and that few had been tested. I'm happy to be wrong. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.startribune.com/more-thoughtful-lockdo wn-rules-could-spare-us-loss-and-suffering/5692340 72/ The Minnesota Governor declared a lockdown. He's Democrat Farmer Labor Party and thus naturally authoritarian in mindset. I'm surprised New York's Emperor hasn't also imposed a lockdown, enforced by threat of death, and I'm assuming there are different motivations. Governor Walz appears to want to harm Trump, and consolidate personal rule, much like Stalin.  Governor Cuomo doesn't want to wreck his golden goose, the massive bribes from big Wall Street firms that have enriched his family for decades. He's also in the business of Trump Hate, and authoritarian over reach, but the desire to be handed the D Party nomination for President without spending a dime ( legally ) on the Primary battle has to be huge in his thinking. He sure looks like he's running. I will admit, the NY Governor's wearing a polo shirt with his crest in multiple tv ads ( disguised as news ) while giving sound bites in an empty emergency medical tent is great optics. | ||
| Hootowl |
https://www.foxnews.com/world/thailand-king-self-q uarantining-from-coronavirus-with-women It’s good to be king. I have to wonder, though, are his 20 concubines considered sex workers or sex slaves according to German law? | ||
| Sifo |
If you care, here's an interactive prediction of the curve of the infections, hospitalizations, deaths, bed and ventilator shortages, etc. They do say "The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures." Click on the green bar that says "Interact with the data visualization". http://www.healthdata.org/data-visualization/covid -19-us-state-state-projections | ||
| Slaughter |
True. We are working with Spain, India, Israel, France, FDA as well as device manufacturers. I'll see if your profile has your email address and I can send you the slide deck as of last week's meeting. As in others' designs, it will be totally open source. We expect to be producing on the order of 1000 ventilators a week in less than 2 weeks from now. The FDA understands the urgency. Mnscrounger, I just PM'd you with my work email address.} (Message edited by slaughter on March 31, 2020) | ||
| Blake |
Update of the CCP-virus mortality per capita chart, now including Spain:  | ||
| Blake |
Tom (Sifo): I'll do a semi log plot for you. But the early mortality data is likely not very reliable either. A straight line on a semi-log plot is exponentially increasing. Ask yourself why it's so difficult to find a plot of tests performed over time. Wi tests being directed to people with symptoms, and with the test rate increasing a LOT, and with different testing schemes and rates across different nations, there just is no reliable way to use positive test results to compare relative pandemic trajectories or to estimate relative infection rates. Unless a random sampling is done, the testing is highly selective with varying rates and reliabilities. At this point it is garbage data for trying to ascertain pandemic trajectory. I can't say that loud enough or frequently enough. Mortality may trail, but it is MUCH more reliable at this point. We now have a test for the antibody. That test in league with the virus detection testing can identify ALL infections, including the recovered, asymptomatic, and mild symptom cases, ongoing and recovered. Random population samples should be taken. But we're in fire fighting mode, so... Germany may have some valuable data soon. Stay tuned for the semi-log plot. | ||
| Sifo |
Blake, I do understand your concerns about the confirmed case data. To my knowledge though, the US hasn't really changed much in their testing procedures. They don't test randomly. They don't even test unless you are showing repository issues by and large. If your aren't bad enough to need medical care, they simply tend to not test. For what it's worth, the "comedian" who did a photo shoot holding a fake decapitated Trump's head was complaining that she had been put into an isolation ward in the hospital without being tested. I gather a lot of "confirmations" happen based on symptoms. I'm simply not convinced that the confirmed numbers are going up just because more testing is happening. On top of that, the curve is still moving in concert with the critical and death curves. The confirmed case curve will the the most up to date data to use. The death curve will be the most out of date data. Perhaps a better data point would be the number of cases who are hospitalized. The death curve may also go down from treatments being improved, or the opposite from the system being overrun. I'm curious, do you have anything that backs your idea that additional testing is skewing the confirmed case data? I'm still struggling with the percentage who are asymptomatic. The Korean Dr. who has lot's of test data, probably the best in the world, claiming around 20% being asymptomatic, vs. 86% claimed in a study that I really don't know much about. I just don't know what to make of that huge gap. It seems it would matter a lot with your testing hypothesis. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/03/31/report s-iran-has-lost-17-officials-nearly-15000-people-t o-chinese-coronavirus/ A reminder to take reports with a grain of salt. And frankly just ignore numbers from despots. With Iran and China they lie routinely to save face. Which to them is no different than all the other lies they tell to keep power. Fundamentally dishonest. | ||
| Tpehak |
If we'll do everything right 200000 americans will still die. Basically right now in USA we have 200000 alive people are doomed. https://youtu.be/5BQ8l8grQ4g | ||
| Tpehak |
It's time to embrace our destiny | ||
| Hughlysses |
2 minute test for presence of COVID-19 antibodies approved by FDA: https://www.axios.com/fda-coronavirus-two-minute-t esting-kit-bodysphere-a665429d-488d-4edf-bd36-9180 e2a06e4c.html (Posted to Twitter by Buell/EBR engineer Steve Anderson.) | ||
| Court |
———>>>> To my knowledge though, the US hasn't really changed much in their testing procedures. I’d question that. I know too many folks who have been tested for reasons unrelated to those you cite. Having traveled, even absent symptoms will get you tested. Being wealthy will get you tested. witness all the celebs and athletic teams. Death creates a well defined Dara point. I’m really skeptical of the 200,000 number. I’m certain Ed we’re not doomed. Caution and common sense are good practice and good medicine. | ||
| Slaughter |
The game that ALL of the players are playing (mine and any/all others) - as viewed by the FDA - slides 15 and 16 from a 40 slide design review from last week (company logo removed):   (Message edited by slaughter on March 31, 2020) | ||
| Aesquire |
200,000 dooooooooooomed!!!???? Perhaps. But don't bet on it. That's as unreliable a source as Tokyo Rose in 1942. In fact, $5 says you're wrong. I doubt I can do better at discerning the truth than assuming MSNBC is lying about political crud. And F$%& destiny. Kicking & screaming & stabbing with anything pointy. That's how you live life. It's certainly possible that between Seattle and LA we could get a wildfire explosive growth in the homeless exploited community. Out of 50 States, you are going to get some casualties in each one, just because of Spring Break traffic. But the immigration heavy states are going to get hit hardest. Frankly, I'm more worried about Kansas and Nebraska than New York. New York, with the high population density and lefty leaders who were just weeks ago still pushing uncontrolled illegal immigration and mass profit making gatherings, I EXPECT to be hit hard. But there's a corridor of Mexican border influx traffic right up the middle of the country toward the high payment welfare states in the rust belt. Folk in Idaho are isolated by density and traffic flow, but Kansas etc. are high traffic zones for foreign invaders looking to get to Sanctuary cities for tax paid everything. | ||
| Ratbuell |
I'm worried about the Lakes states for the same reason - heavy INS/ICE "relocation" traffic. Don't forget the fact that our own systems can combat this - and as far as that goes, people (as a rule) in the urban sprawl are "weak" when it comes to natural antibodies due to lack of exposure to the elements, and to nature in general. Those of us in the sticks, who spend more time in nature, bug bites, scrapes, bruises, pollen, molds, natural well water, and all that "unsanitary country stuff"...tend to have stronger immune systems than those who live indoor, filtered, sanitary, bug-free, processed-everything, city lives. My thoughts on predictions haven't changed. We simply don't have enough information to predict...anything. We don't know how many asymptomatics are out there who have self-healed. Or who are still carrying. We aren't global-testing...and until we do, any "predictions" mean, as of this moment, precisely, dick. (To quote Men In Black). We have changed our testing protocols - witness the creation of the "5 minute drive-thru test" that is reaching hundreds of thousands more people every day. We are moving towards global testing, although I question if we'll ever get there in reality, but with the proliferation and increased availability of testing kits, we ARE testing more and more people. And, as Court noted...people can always "buy" a place in line if they want. It's the American way. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/03/coronavirus -pandemic-california-herd-immunity/ Covid-19 may have arrived last fall. Well worth the read. I'm still doubtful about pulling hard conclusions from limited and early bad data. That doesn't mean you can't predict trends, but you could be very wrong in your predictions. | ||
| Blake |
Tom, The early testing was slim to none thanks to the CDC so horribly fumbling the ball. Our test capacity jumped by an order of magnitude just a week or two ago. Dr. Birx emphatically warned the press at the daily briefing that lots of new cases were fixin' to hit over the next 3 days or so while they cleared BACKLOG, meaning a bunch of swabs sitting waiting for tests. Regardless of that, it just isn't a random observation, and so is highly biased, mainly towards people with symptoms. There could, as many have suggested, be multitudes who've been infected and not tested. The case data is virtually useless at this point for comparing or projecting anything in my professional analyst opinion. Google the testing in USA; see if you can find a plot of tests over time. I've not found one. I just recall what Dr. Birx said. But dead is dead. | ||
| Tpehak |
I see one trend constantly happens, whatever were predicted the actual things get worst. So statement about minimum 200000 death in USA sounds like true. | ||
| Blake |
Here are your semi-log plots. I disagree that they are more useful. You can't tell anything by looking at the relative slopes, since slope changes visually by a factor of ten as you go up the chart. I does help expose what was happening at the lower ranges though. But as far as current trajectory, the simple X-Y plot seems much more intuitive and informative to me. See what you think: First the data:  Log plot of same data (Spain data is missing two days):  Log plot normalizing starting point at 0.1 Deaths per Million:  Log plot normalizing starting point at 1.0 Deaths per Million:  Regular XP Chart:  | ||
| Tpehak |
I heard a crazy story in Oregon you can not fuel your vehicle on the gas station, you have to contact fueling guy, the guy will take your payment and prepare the gas pump for you, then the fueling guy will give you the gas hose so after this you can stick the hose in your vehicle. This process requires close contact with another person. I'm wondering how they handle it now because of you can not contact another person close due to risk of coronavirus spread. (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 31, 2020) | ||
| Blake |
There is no choice. No driver may pump his/her own fuel in Oregon or New Jersey. Those states decided that saving the jobs of pump jockeys was more important that freedom and the right to choose if you pump your own fuel or not. Probably other states have joined that club too, but I don't know for sure. | ||
| Hootowl |
In Oregon’s case, a state lawmaker’s wife was too stupid to figure out how to pump her own gas without hurting herself, so, for the safety of everyone, including those not of the idiot persuasion, pumping your own gas was banned back in the 50s. | ||
| Tpehak |
But now modern fuel pumps are safer, so they need to review their laws. |
