| Author | Message | ||
     Ourdee |
Roswell Park VP fired over anti-Trump Facebook posts https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/28/roswell-park-vp -placed-on-leave-for-anti-trump-facebook-posts/?ut m_term=Autofeed&utm_campaign=puma&utm_medium=socia l&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1585416226 | ||
| Sifo |
Tom (Sifo): Greg is right. Using confirmed cases, aka positive test results is going to give you an artificial acceleration. For that data to be useful for trend trajectory tracking, the tasing rate and capacity would need to be close to constant, but it wasn't. It started near zero and has ramped up just recently. We literally could have the same number of infected people and yet the graph of "confirmed cases" would still show an acceleration. It would be lying. Even plotting mortality is suspect, since people may have been dying before we knew it was the CCP virus rather than flu. And so many other issues and factors too. Best metric I've seen is to look at overall mortality rate and see if/how elevated it may be. That said, I'm still tracking mortality per capita between Italy, S. Korea, and the USA. Enjoy... Some valid points. Let's discuss them. Testing in the US. It was pathetic IMO at the start. Despite some hype, we still only test cases where people are complaining of symptoms that put them at high likelihood of being infected. Have you been tested? I haven't. Has Greg? Fact is, we are never going to have data telling us how many total infections we have had. Guess what. We never have that for the flu either, yet those numbers get tossed around as a comparison as if they are golden. They're just estimates. The idea that infections were out there and we are just seeing cases rise sounds plausible. Do the math though. To have huge numbers of infected, asymptomatic people walking around very early on would require it to be extremely infectious. Yet, it's your crowd, and Greg specifically that is claiming the infection rates are way overblown. You don't get to have it both ways. You can do the math from when if first came to the US and calculate the infection rate needed to do what you are saying. There's a range of infection rate that will explain the growth of infections we see, not only in our country, but in others too. S. Korea is a great example. They jumped on test everybody they could, as fast as they could. They come up with similar infection rates, until they got it down with changes in social behavior. So I will agree that testing has ramped up a lot. It's not clear that we are testing much differently though. Demand for testing continues to outrun actual testing. Testing in other countries still confirm the growth rates we see in the US. There's little to tell us that we are off track on that. Especially not with the exponential growth that we see. About the mortality. Again, you raise a plausible idea. It's flawed though. When things like that happen, once the cause is identified, they realize that there has been a rash of deaths that fit, but weren't diagnosed. You would also see an immediate rise in deaths, or a step change in the data when the disease gets identified. We don't see that. We see a single death on 2/29/20 (well after we had limited travel into the US, so we knew about this disease for at least a month). 3/2/20 it jumps to 6, then 9, then 11, 12, 15. It's a pretty smooth progression. A progression that follows the same curve as the confirmed cases. That's a good confirmation of having it right. That chart you posted comparing Italy, US, and S. Korea is terribly flawed. If that sort of comparison is to be done, it should be with a logarithmic chart. If you don't do that, it's just impossible to see large percentage changes in the tracks with lower numbers. That's only due to the scaling required to see the graph for Italy. An even better way would be to take logarithmic charts from all three countries, each scaled to the data at hand and overlay them. A lot depends on what you are trying to see. Doing it as you posted though, IMO is terrible. There are many ways to present data to help see what you are looking for in the data. Or hide things in the data. That chart hides things. About the chart where I put the red line in the time line... That shows that 3/4 of the cases are from the last 10 days. That's pretty close to how long it takes a typical case to go from becoming symptomatic and getting tested, to critical, and finally to death. So right now, we have only seen, maybe 25% of the deaths that are baked in for the next 10 days. In 10 days time, the number of infected is going to about 4x as high if the progression doesn't change. I'm hoping it will very soon, due to the social changes that have been put on us. Much like the delay in seeing the true deaths, there's a delay in seeing changes in infection rate due to social changes, because of the incubation period. Bottom line IMO, you can track it with various metrics. Death rate is certainly one to watch, but it's also, very much a trailing indicator. Watching infections will tell you about any changes about 10 days earlier. Until we have a change, either in infections (probably due to social changes) or death rate (probably due to new treatments), they will track together quite well in a set ratio. So is the chart with Italy, US and S. Korea out on the net, or are you doing that yourself? If you are doing it, would you mind changing it a logarithmic chart? I would be curious to see that. | ||
| Sifo |
I damn sure hope that walking and being outside are not a threat to health ..... I’ve been running, riding 22 miles and doing my complete ser of USMC PT daily.  I'm out multiple times daily. Use some common sense and you should be fine. Going to the store, I get more careful. | ||
| 1313 |
I'm just curious; does anybody here personally know anybody who has contracted the Corona Virus? I do. As with Hoot, a coworker of mine, thankfully far enough removed for me although others in my department had orders from the health department to self quarantine for a period of time. After the determination was made, they shuttered our building forcing those that work there to work from home, then a few days later they closed our entire site. I've been working from home since St. Patrick's Day. I thought what happened in Vegas was supposed to stay in Vegas... | ||
| Court |
RD: I wrote Roswell and shared my thoughts. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/n umerators_and_denominators_in_the_coronavirus_saga .html To ascertain how fatal a virus is, we need an accurate picture of how many people have it (the denominator) and how many have died as a result (the numerator), we have neither, but the data is improving and with it some substantial shifts away from the original model, which predicted far more deaths as a result of the Wuhan virus than we are seeing. As a half million Americans have been tested, and almost all in the last week! You should expect a big spike, but that has little to do with the Actual number of cases, and more to do with number of tests suddenly increasing. The OTHER lesson that should be learned, is that the WHO are shills for the Red Chinese dictatorship. Recent video of a reporter asking if Taiwan should be a concern for WHO resulted in, first, the question being, blown off as in “I’m sorry, I couldn’t hear your question,” then, “No, that’s OK. Let’s move to another one, then.” then when another question about Taiwan is asked, the head of WHO just killed the connection. ( hung up & F$%& You! ) So not only are China's lying murderers a poor source for ANY facts, ever, the WHO can be assumed useless for accurate information as well. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-who- official-appears-to-dodge-reporters-questions-abou t-taiwan-in-viral-video As I wrote earlier, I can understand not wanting to lose access to China, where this disease originated. It's important to get advance notice on the plagues that pour forth from the Middle Kingdom Every Year. But God King Xi continues Mao's claim that Free and Independent Free China, aka Taiwan, is a rebellious splinter state, just waiting reunification. ( based on centuries old territorial claims. Of course, you can argue that London belongs to Italy the same way, but not Scotland! ) Thus the refusal to even hear the name of a democratic country, because it offends the People's Hell of China's leaders. | ||
| Willmrx |
If all of us must stay indoors and not work. Then why is our governor Newsom running all over the state with his entourage, doing press conferences from one end of the state to the other. And today he is going to medical manufacturing plants with what, 10 to 15 people,with only one wearing a mask,that I could see. And not to mention the press following him. Can't he stay at the capital and do all the press bs from there? The mayor of Stockton Ca is at home doing, doing all his press conferences,seems like a better way. | ||
| Sifo |
We literally could have the same number of infected people and yet the graph of "confirmed cases" would still show an acceleration. It would be lying. So just how many people are running around without symptoms? I just happened across this video. He seems to be in a position to know what he's talking about, and working with S. Korean data, who have been doing a very good job of testing. At the 5:10 mark in the video he states that about 20% are asymptomatic. It's nice to have that piece of data. Feel free to verify for yourselves.... So taking that as a fair number to work with, we could simply go back in the graphs of confirmed cases and multiply by 1.2. Doing that presumably would overstate the cases, because by now we are testing and catching some percentage of those. I'll work with that though, as it works against the point I'm going to make. Let's go back to this graphic...  At the red line, we showed about 110-115k cases worldwide. I'll call it 120k to keep math easy and it works against my point. Add the 20% with no symptoms and you have 144k cases total. That's world wide minus China. Let's just pretend that at the red line the world started testing everybody. Clearly that's not the case, but pretend. 10 days later we are over 500k cases, pretending these include asymptomatic cases. We've still added more than 356k cases over the original 144k in just 10 days, and I'm not sure what more I can do do skew this away from making my point clear. I've made absurd assumption that work against me. That well over doubling the cases in 10 days with the most Pollyanna view I can think of. Does that not still raise some alarms in your head? No matter how much "lying" you think might happen from better testing, it can't possibly explain the exponential nature of this illness. | ||
| H0gwash |
I think Newsom is prepping for a run in 2024 but yes, he could work remotely it would seem. | ||
| Ourdee |
Court, I had thoughts that argued in my head. I see a lot of people that get bent and can't shut up while they are bent. Then I see people that can't balance all the sides of a story because they have an objective or can't be objective. Used to be we could all get something done and thinking different was an asset. With all that has transpired in the past 3 months I still see people in all walks (including doctors) that don't take infection seriously, and I see those that get it. If your gun is empty, I'll give you a bullet. I've met those that wouldn't toss a magazine to someone on their own squad. I guess I'm saying that it doesn't matter how much you do or don't know if you don't treat everyone with dignity. I need to get a bicycle and get out of this office. Be careful out there brothers. | ||
| Sifo |
As a half million Americans have been tested, and almost all in the last week! You should expect a big spike, but that has little to do with the Actual number of cases, and more to do with number of tests suddenly increasing. I see a lot of assumptions that I've not seen supported by any data. That article mentions Fauci writing " If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%." OK. Factual enough, but what if one doesn't assume that? I just posted where the data in S. Korea, where they've been doing some of the best testing is working with a rate of 20% being asymptomatic, not "several times as high as the number of reported cases". The difference is HUGE, and I don't claim to have direct knowledge of any of it. The S. Korean scientist seemed to be working from collected data. I just wonder what data Fauci is basing his statements off of that is so dramatically different. I guess we'll see if we get a spike in confirmed cases in the US in the next week. Hint, look at the confirmed cases in a logarithmic chart. If the line bends upward, you have a spike. | ||
| Sifo |
Speaking of bending the line in the logarithmic chart, it's been looking like it's bending down just a bit. I didn't want to jump the gun on just a glitch in the data, but it's looking like a bit of a trend. I've been hoping we would see this given the closing of businesses and pressure to change social behavior. This really is good news.  | ||
| Hootowl |
And in another instance of projection/misdirection, the wicked witch of the west blames Trump for delaying. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-says-trump -has-downplayed-severity-of-coronavirus-as-the-pre sident-fiddles-people-are-dying She has been ••••••• this country up for far too long. She needs to go. | ||
| Fb1 |
^: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1244309 931874017280 | ||
| Fb1 |
^: https://twitter.com/RSBNetwork/status/124427700114 3320582 One America News (OANN) would also be a good place to watch this afternoon's press conference. You're welcome. | ||
| Fb1 |
I found Legal Insurrection during the media's Trayvon Martin fake news extravaganza. And from there, I quickly found the Conservative Treehouse. I don't follow LI much anymore, but this piece from Professor Jacobsen, published back on March 21st, bears re-reading: https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/03/rachel-maddo w-and-others-call-on-networks-not-to-broadcast-tru mp-coronavirus-press-conferences/ As always, when you're reading news from an honest journalist, there are a multitude of provided hyperlinks, so in this case you can vet (or not) Prof. Jacobens's piece to your satisfaction. Corn Pop hid out for six days during the current "crisis." More accurately, "they" hid him out for six days. (I imagine this was pretty much like Christmas for them. If they actually believed in Jesus Christ, that is...) President Trump, on the other hand, likely operating on about four hours of sleep per 24, has been front and center every day, speaking directly to America about the crap we're presently suffering through. ^ THIS IS VERY BAD NEWS FOR THE FAKE NEWS! In the same way that P45's Twitter account is problematic for the folks behind the curtain, so, too, are his daily televised updates to America regarding the WuFlu. So much so, there have been calls (from all the usual suspects) not to air them. I can't even begin to imagine what we'd be going through as a nation right now if The Kenyan was still pretending to be in charge, or if "What difference does it make?!?" was pretending to be at the helm. ************************** Mr. President: The American people deserve to see justice served upon the enemies of our great nation, both foreign and domestic. Broadcast this justice live on pay-per-view and I bet we could pay off our national debt... | ||
| Hughlysses |
NY doctor is now up to 699 patients successfully treated with hydroxychloroquine, in combination with azithromycin (Z-Pak), an antibiotic to treat secondary infections, and zinc sulfate. Of these 699 patients treated, zero patients died, zero patients intubated, and four hospitalizations. https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-ze lenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-suc cess-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-u pdate/ Still anecdotal evidence, but this combo looks more promising all the time, plus it’s cheap- $20 for 5 days. The key seems to be starting this regimen early, like at the first sign of symptoms. | ||
| Sifo |
More on Fauci speaks... https://apnews.com/7d851c87c07a7e0f67c245abe0d86e5 6
I would have to call that a pretty reasonable statement. It seems somewhat at odds with his "if we assume" statement above. It is all a moving target though. We can alter the infection rate by changing our behavior. We can alter the death rate with better treatments. Eventually we will probably have a vaccine that will drastically alter the infection rate. Until something changes in a pretty big way, I don't see any way of it not hitting 100,000 dead in the US. | ||
| Sifo |
NY doctor is now up to 699 patients successfully treated... Probably the most hopeful thing I've seen through this whole thing! | ||
| Fb1 |
From the 25th:
^: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/juliorosas/2020/03/2 5/seattle-npr-station-announces-they-wont-be-airin g-trumps-coronavirus-press-briefings-n2565695 NPR? PBS? Enemies of the people, IMO. Disagree? Have you ever actually listened to them? Bias so thick, you need a hot shower and a wire brush to scrub off the stench. | ||
| H0gwash |
I am surprised there are any critiques regarding the misbehavior of your numbers, Sifo. I've found your whole approach to be quite sound. Hopefully the line will start to curl downward. | ||
| Ourdee |
France’s Minister of Health Olivier Véran said Thursday: “Hydroxychloroquine and the combination of lopinavir / ritonavir may be prescribed, dispensed and administered under the responsibility of a doctor to patients affected by Covid-19, in the healthcare establishments which take charge of them, as well as for the continuation of their treatment if their condition allows it and with the authorization of the initial prescriber, at home.” https://www.dailywire.com/news/france-officially-s anctions-drug-after-78-of-80-patients-recover-from -covid-19-within-five-days?%3Futm_source=twitter&u tm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dwtwitter | ||
| Hughlysses |
Probably the most hopeful thing I've seen through this whole thing! There are several threads on Twitter with positive info from different sources. A couple of manufacturers in the US have even announced they’re ramping up production of hydroxychloroquine. OTOH, India, who manufactures it as well, has stopped all exports of the drug. That would seem to imply they know they may need it. Scott Adams hypothesizes that officials are downplaying, or at least keeping quiet about the drug due to limited supply. My pharmacist said that most pharmacies keep 200-300 pills in stock as it’s typically used to treat malaria and some types of arthritis. He also said it is currently unavailable to restock should he run out. So maybe the US is trying to stock up before they recommend it as a blanket treatment. The good thing is the dose being used is only 2 pills a day for 5 days. The only caution I’ve read about is some heart conditions (arrhythmia?) preclude its use. If this proves out, the ventilator issue and overflowing hospitals issues go away. (Message edited by Hughlysses on March 29, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
I am surprised there are any critiques regarding the misbehavior of your numbers, Sifo. I've found your whole approach to be quite sound. Hopefully the line will start to curl downward. Well thank you. I'm glad it's making sense to somebody. The rate of change on stuff like this is just hard go wrap your head around. I fully get that part. I also get that there is a desire to not have beliefs torn apart by data. "There must be something wrong with the data or the analysis". And yes, there's plenty of holes in the data on something like this, forcing you into less than perfect analysis tools. That makes it all easy to dismiss. I have made a bunch of money in my lifetime being able to make data viewable for people much smarter than me. I have learned to recognize, in a large part at least, when data is being presented fairly. It's easy to fool people with data presentation, even yourself. The people I did it for had zero interest in fooling anybody. It was to help make money. They desired brutal fairness in the good and the bad. Much of what I'm presenting here has come from the video series that gets dismissed without watching any of it. He's using analysis techniques I'm familiar with in ways that make sense. His predictions have been very spot on as the weeks roll by. The biggest question is the unknowns. Even those can be estimated fairly well. It's not that hard to look at best and worst cases. It's becoming more and more apparent that the best case with this isn't all that good. OTOH, the worst case isn't the end of the world. It is quite a bit worse than seasonal flu though. I've invited analysis to show that it isn't, and get zip. I'm open to looking at it. I do think there's a disconnect with political statements that are made vs. the story of the data. When in doubt, watch actions, not words. Just how many ventilators are the big 3 auto makers going to be making? Why? That's a lot of manufacturing capacity for hardware that isn't all that difficult to produce. It's mostly industrial lego parts. | ||
| Sifo |
There are several threads on Twitter with positive info from different sources. A couple of manufacturers in the US have even announced they’re ramping up production of hydroxychloroquine. OTOH, India, who manufactures it as well, has stopped all exports of the drug. That would seem to imply they know they may need it. Scott Adams hypothesizes that officials are downplaying, or at least keeping quiet about the drug due to limited supply. My pharmacist said that most pharmacies keep 200-300 pills in stock as it’s typically used to treat malaria and some types of arthritis. He also said it is currently unavailable to restock should he run out. So maybe the US is trying to stock up before they recommend it as a blanket treatment. The good thing is the dose being used is only 2 pills a day for 5 days. The only caution I’ve read about is some heart conditions (arrhythmia?) preclude its use. If this proves out, the ventilator issue and overflowing hospitals issues go away. When this first was coming to light, I had read that China controls one of the ingredients needed for production of chloroquine. At the time it was thought that India would be stopping exports because imports of the key chemicals might stop. It's a whole messed up supply chain. I hope this is for real and we can get the quantities that are needed. It's a potential game changer. | ||
| Tpehak |
Ravens in mass flying in Washington Like in Wuhan | ||
| 1313 |
NEVERMORE! | ||
| Ourdee |
China LIED In Order To Extract Critical Medical Supplies, Launches Propaganda Campaign To Exploit Us | ||
| Tpehak |
I'm wondering how exactly those coronavirus tests work. Nobody explains how they actually work. | ||
| Hootowl |
“like in wuhan” And everywhere else there are ravens. This is very common behavior, and has nothing to do with the thread topic. |
