| Author | Message | ||
     Sifo |
Cool video with a fresh look at the data. I have to admit, I geeked out just a little bit on this. It used to be my job to take a description of what someone wanted to show from the data, and make it happen. I still wouldn't believe the data from China though. It's easy to fake the data. We should have a thread about how data gets faked in science! | ||
| 86129squids |
I appreciate your noodle, Tom. Another example of how cool the BW peeps can be. Saw the coolest news piece on what the kids are doing to pass time, deal with this crap... someone had the idea to find a first responder, medical worker/doctor, delivery driver, basically anyone who's on the front lines of this, out in the public, and thank/honor them in some way. +1000000000, and then some. A bit of bad news on my side- I've mentioned my dear Chaplain sis who's working in the Little Rock Baptist Hospital system during all this... she tripped over a vacuum cleaner hose yesterday, did a straight face plant into concrete, ended up with stitches in her lip, busted nose, a few loose teeth, and so on. She's expecting to go all raccoon with black eyes. Thankfully nothing was broken. Put your prayers up, youn's. We're in for more of a crappy ride yet, I fear. | ||
| Sifo |
So here's another visual that can help folks grasp exponential growth. There are 55 days of the graph on the left of the red line. There are 11 days of the graph on the right side of the line. So the last 20% of days on the chart represents 75% of the growth. That's why when it becomes a crisis, people wonder why we didn't do something earlier. Hope this helps some with understanding this crap.  | ||
| Tpehak |
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| Pwnzor |
So you're saying this is bad? | ||
| Gregtonn |
Hope this helps some with understanding this crap. And crap is exactly what that graph is. How many test kits were available in January? How many people were tested in January? Answer...not many. How many test kits were available in February? How many people were tested in February? Again...not many. Testing started ramping up asymptotically in March so naturally the curve of confirmed cases should be asymptotic as well. No surprise there and no reason to panic. G | ||
| Sifo |
And crap is exactly what that graph is. How many test kits were available in January? How many people were tested in January? Answer...not many. How many test kits were available in February? How many people were tested in February? Again...not many. Testing started ramping up asymptotically in March so naturally the curve of confirmed cases should be asymptotic as well. No surprise there and no reason to panic. G Pick a country. Any country. If they have a fair number of cases yet (which is true for any major countries), you will see a virtually identical distribution. Look at the graph of deaths for any of those countries (surely you don't think testing of asymptomatic people has help find deaths), you will see virtually the identical distribution. There are two exceptions to that. S. Korea and China. Both will show a virtually identical ramp up. China's data is complete fabrication at this point. S. Korea actually got a handle on things due to measures that you claim don't work. Bottom line. You don't know what the •••• you are talking about. | ||
| Sifo |
So you're saying this is bad? YES!!! In about 10 days, if that trend hasn't changed we will be looking at 4 times as many cases as we see now. I do consider that bad. The current half million will be the 20% to the left of the line in those 10 days. | ||
| 86129squids |
My sis has an old college friend in Gatlinburg who's a trail guide, thinks this is NBD too. Tom, I'm sharing this thread with her. Thanks again, brother. Give Mary my best. | ||
| Gregtonn |
We also could have already had a million or more undiagnosed cases and not know it. Once again you fail to understand there are significant unknowns in the equation. I would say do the math but you obviously don't know how. G | ||
| Sifo |
Seriously Greg. You're a dumb ••••• | ||
| Gregtonn |
Coming from you, I will take that as a compliment. G  | ||
| Aesquire |
Children! Children! Class! ( Sister Mary Elephant ) https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/mor e-evidence-of-the-efficacy-of-hydroxychloroquine-a nd-azithromycin.php | ||
| Aesquire |
Don't be doing koi pond cleaner on the basis of the above study! Or we will pilgrimage to your grave to ridicule you. Annually. With ribs. Seriously are you nice fellows arguing over how bad Pooh's Breath is? 'Cause the answer is yes, it's serious. Or is the argument, "worse than this year's flu?" ??? 'Cause the answer, is, yes. How much worse? I dunno yet. This year's annual flu from China ( actually the '19 late flu, with the '20 early flu just starting ) IS Serious, too. A pretty bad one according to charts posted here, above. My GP certainly thought so last year, when she suggested the latest flu vaccine. She was right. Or is the argument? "This U.S. response is/is not an over-reaction?" I don't know yet. It's certainly full of violations of our civil rights, and we'll see if we get them back, ever. ( then you can go protest, as you please, once this has died down, and you want to risk hateful people spitting on you ) Please define the dispute, please. I, for one, an confused.  | ||
| Sifo |
Interesting results. Without a control group though, can it really be considered a study? Certainly not a robust study. I do understand his reasoning though. Then issues about not being a blind study. I have no idea what other issues it may have from the short description. Still, encouraging. | ||
| Gregtonn |
Tom, I am sorry if I have upset you. When I see how you keep hyping the gloom and doom of this situation it makes me sad. It also makes me wonder, why? G | ||
| Willmrx |
Great news here in central California! I went for a ride today, on my XR650L (The perfect apocalypse bike), through Modesto Ca. They still are allowing the marijuana dispensaries to stay open, with 20 plus people standing toe to heal in line, waiting to get in. Plus if you need a free government cell phone, they still have the tents set up on the sidewalks, with a couple of people in it to help you get your phone. The bummer is, in some countries they are closing Gun stores because they are considered unnecessary, hmmm....... | ||
| 86129squids |
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_a nd_statistics Greg, as I mentioned in another thread, check out Pascal's Wager. I've identified as an agnostic, but I'm sure praying for everyone. I recommend discretion, valor, and stay the F home. | ||
| Aesquire |
I'm jealous! Rain here, for the next few, but hopefully it'll wash off some salt drifts. As to control groups, the ethical issues trumped the rigor, in this case. Not having a control group can give you a false positive. So what we know is the percentage of a select, small, group of seriously ill patients, that didn't respond ( deceased or still very ill ) is 2.5% ??? ( please check my math) Compare that to similar groups, not the general population. And they responded to the entire suite of medical care they received. If all of them took baby aspirin, you don't know if it is the key ingredient. Time & more testing before we know much more. | ||
| Tpehak |
More Than 10,000 Dead In Italy From Coronavirus | ||
| Gregtonn |
I recommend discretion, valor, and stay the F home. I understand the sentiment but, should farmers stay home and not plant crops? I grew up on a farm and I can assure you that will not happen, nor should it. This whole thing reminds me of the typical government "One size fits all" and that has never worked. I think you know that but may have not thought that far ahead. One of the most satisfying things you can do is to prepare ground for a crop that feeds the world. G | ||
| Blake |
Tom (Sifo): Greg is right. Using confirmed cases, aka positive test results is going to give you an artificial acceleration. For that data to be useful for trend trajectory tracking, the tasing rate and capacity would need to be close to constant, but it wasn't. It started near zero and has ramped up just recently. We literally could have the same number of infected people and yet the graph of "confirmed cases" would still show an acceleration. It would be lying. Even plotting mortality is suspect, since people may have been dying before we knew it was the CCP virus rather than flu. And so many other issues and factors too. Best metric I've seen is to look at overall mortality rate and see if/how elevated it may be. That said, I'm still tracking mortality per capita between Italy, S. Korea, and the USA. Enjoy...   | ||
| Gregtonn |
In Tom's defense he may have confused the terms asymptotic with asymptomatic. I hope that is the case. G | ||
| Ducbsa |
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/the_f irst_casualty_of_war_even_war_against_a_virus_is_t ruth.html Also, regarding "one size fits all", those big city pols in state offices act like everyone lives in a big city ant farm and disregards people in the rural areas. In the UK, the cops are using drones to spot people out for walks in the country. I just can't believe that walking and staying away from other walkers is a real risk. | ||
| Crusty |
I'm just curious; does anybody here personally know anybody who has contracted the Corona Virus? | ||
| Hootowl |
I do. Two coworkers. One has been hospitalized. | ||
| Ourdee |
Yes, His wife is recovering at home in Avon, In. He was sick for a week. Then went into hospital and is on day 5 now. Chloroquine for a few days now. changed rooms yesterday. No ventilator needed so far. Can not talk and breath at same time. Old guy. | ||
| Court |
I damn sure hope that walking and being outside are not a threat to health ..... I’ve been running, riding 22 miles and doing my complete ser of USMC PT daily. I’ve lost 72# the last 18 months and have been able to dedicate the time and really focus during this “crisis”. The new company we just started has benefitted from a $35B investment to aid our development efforts. Pure luck dictates that none of our regulatory nor legal work requires face to face meetings . . . My colleagues are in Dublin, NYC Kansas City, Boston and 4 of us scattered around Florida. We start everyday with an 8am touchpoint to coordinate what each of us is working on that day and off we go. I’ve found I can do about 50% of my meetings while riding using the handlebar mounted 11ProMax iPhone and Air Pods. I feel bad for folks who are suffering and we e been making some donations s to try to help a bit. We just locked the office up ...I sent my secretary home and told her to “stay safe and do things” but we kept her at full pay. I’m confident we’ll get through( this and I see tons of opportunities coming out of it. Hope all are surviving and keeping their sanity and safety to the best of their abilities. My new daily routine Includes texting with my Grandaughter and ignoring the Palm Beach mandatory “stay at home if you are over 65” order. | ||
| Court |
By the way ....the photos from Suches were GREAT. We did the dragon and the Blue Ridge Parkway last year and watching Froggy’s progress was family entertainment the other day. | ||
| Ourdee |
Chinese Company that Makes Forehead Thermometers ‘Jokes’ About Making Faulty Product for Sale in US in Order to Spread Disease https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/chinese-c ompany-that-makes-forehead-thermometers-jokes-abou t-making-faulty-product-for-sale-in-us-in-order-to -spread-disease/ |
