| Author | Message | ||
     Ratbuell |
A medical worker on my firearms forum had a good point about the "bodies in trucks" - the body still carries the contagious virus after death, so they are simply storing them that way until the virus itself dies. Combined with closed morgues and funeral homes...it's more procedural, than "holy shit where do we put all of these". OK, tens of thousands. The model said BY NOW, we'd have tens of thousands of bodies. But we've got 1,400. Miss. It's had nearly four months since being introduced to the human race. The first Chinese person to feel the effects, reported those on December 10 2019. Things didn't start getting locked down until about 2 weeks ago. Again - if it was this massive 1:3 infection rate, combined with this "automatic death sentence" mortality rate, and free reign of the globe with ZERO containment policies in place...where's all those bodies? One of those pieces is wrong - either it's not 1:3...or it's not as deadly as they're saying. Or both. We'll see in 2 weeks. And again, even the models put mortality chances at about 1 in 4,000 Americans (average), but could be as high as 1 in 2,000 or as low as 1 in 10,000. Do you KNOW 2,000 people? What are the chances it'll kill someone you KNOW...much less kill YOU? I'm fine with washing my hands more, like I've said. But...shutting down Western Civilization? Seriously? I just don't see it. Even at 1,400 Americans...it still doesn't add up. There are so many other, much-worse things that we've lived with forever and never shut down society over...so I'll ask again. Why now? This does not add up. | ||
| Sifo |
It's had nearly four months since being introduced to the human race. The first Chinese person to feel the effects, reported those on December 10 2019. Things didn't start getting locked down until about 2 weeks ago. Again - if it was this massive 1:3 infection rate, combined with this "automatic death sentence" mortality rate, and free reign of the globe with ZERO containment policies in place...where's all those bodies? One of those pieces is wrong - either it's not 1:3...or it's not as deadly as they're saying. Or both. Ratbuell, I get that it's very hard to get your head around this. We simply aren't wired to deal with this kind of exponential growth. Perhaps a picture is worth a thousand words. It's even better when it's interactive at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#total-cases. You can hover your mouse over any of the data points and see day by day how it's grown from 9 cases on Jan. 22 to 450,525 on March 26. It took all the way to March 16 to hit the first 100,000 cases. In the next 10 days we went past the 450,000 mark! Seriously, take some time and play with the charts.  A slightly different way of looking at the same data is on a logarithmic chart. Take a look at the scaling shown on the left. Each line is an order of magnitude more than the previous line. The neat thing about charting exponential data this way is that if you have a perfect exponential equation, the data plots a perfectly straight line. That line is incredibly straight, especially once it gets going and you are dealing with larger numbers. You can do the same thing, holding your mouse over each data point to see how it progresses.  You are questioning the math behind this. Here it is in graphical format. No tricks. They have graphs for deaths too. They take the same basic shape. We should expect that, because they are statistically related. OK, tens of thousands. The model said BY NOW, we'd have tens of thousands of bodies. But we've got 1,400. Miss. It's a very small miss. Back to the first chart, if you are trying to model things when you are in the first half of the time line, very small errors on the transmission rate will make a huge difference at the total on the right side. Again, they missed the date for that mark by about 2 weeks. It's not that big of a miss, especially considering the lack of data they would have had back then. Even now, they are arguing about the transmission rate. They were pretty darned close! And again, even the models put mortality chances at about 1 in 4,000 Americans (average), but could be as high as 1 in 2,000 or as low as 1 in 10,000. I can't say that I'm familiar with those models. Again, we have some compiled data that can be graphed.  No, it doesn't include unknown infections. It's just the best data we have at the moment. A medical worker on my firearms forum had a good point about the "bodies in trucks" - the body still carries the contagious virus after death, so they are simply storing them that way until the virus itself dies. Combined with closed morgues and funeral homes...it's more procedural, than "holy shit where do we put all of these". Well, the morgues aren't closed. Neither are the funeral homes around here, but they are limiting the size of funerals. I don't know what they are doing in NY. The simple fact is that they are running out of space and storing bodies in trucks. Yes, procedure when "holy shit", we can't deal with the volume. Again, look at the graphs. It's going to get much, much worse in a very big hurry. | ||
| Aesquire |
In the Tom Clancy novel Executive Orders, a biowar attack on the U.S. is countered by the new President Ryan. He shuts things down just as Trump did, and for much the same reasons. He too got accused of dictatorial excess by his political rivals. This shutdown might work. For the reasons publicly stated. I hope it does. Why now? Not add up? You may have the trillion dollar question. Offhand I can think of 2 reasons you wouldn't hear from the government. 1. The advisors we see around Donald are conspiring with his enemies in both parties ( we know some are Hillary fans ) to ruin the economy to win the election. This is probably paranoia, but since many domestic enemies of the Constitution have actually prayed for a depression to win in 2020, publicly, it's possible. 2. Covid-19 is a biological warfare attack on the planet by the Red Chinese government. If so, the shutdown is vital, and well considered. Some of the many reasons that Xi would unleash a dread disease, have already been covered here, so I'll skip that. I do recall that Barry the Weasel repudiated the long standing WMD protocol that was U.S. Official Policy, before him. That was "a WMD is a WMD, a bomb is a gas is a germ. Use any WMD against Americans and we respond in kind" Since we don't have poison gas or germ bombs, that meant a poison gas attack in NYC would get the enemy nuked. Yes, there still is a pile, last I heard, of poison gas shells left over from WW2 & the 50s, awaiting incineration which is on indefinite hold because of Green Panic lawsuits. For decades now. ( No President has bothered to fight to end this idiocy, and every year they corrode and get more dangerous to store ) But no one sane would want to use our rusting weapons. The last biowar weapons we had were the Bat Bombs developed to attack Japan. Not rabid, mind you, wearing thermite charges! Thus, if it's a Chinese WMD attack, the response, before Obama, was to nuke 'em. So China bets we won't, and the Public Propaganda campaign accusing us of not just Racism ( The Left's go to lie ) But starting the plague, makes perfect sense, in the context of deliberate murderous war on the planet. Unfortunately it also makes sense if you assume God wannabe Xi is easily insulted and his temper tantrums kill anyone in the reach of his power. Which is obviously true, seeing how his police forced a doctor to "confess" & he's now dead plus the fact that Winnie the freaking Pooh is banned to a couple of billion people because of a cartoon that annoyed him. Since we probably aren't going to murder hundreds of millions of innocent Chinese civilians to take out Xi's regime, I don't expect anyone in this Administration admitting it's a biowar attack. ( and I foolishly hope we are beyond total war as a sane option ) This isn't exactly the same as the permanent state of denial about the ongoing Jihad again Western Civilization. It would be just smarter not to admit it, while working covertly to respond. Unfortunately the Intelligence community is infested with Clinton & Obama treasonous slime. So I'm not going to hold my breath for a brilliant spy op. | ||
| Ourdee |
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| Ourdee |
I like cruises too. https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-hol land-america-coronavirus-dead-20200327-raujlp2ovbc 3hlc7lu5pzteeni-story.html | ||
| Tpehak |
After the coronavirus the world will never be the same. | ||
| Ourdee |
Karma is a ...... https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hubei-resid ents-riot-after-quarantine-lifted-police-beaten-th eir-own-shield-cop-cars | ||
| Sifo |
It is possible that it just happened to jump to humans at this time. It happens. | ||
| Sifo |
I got a call today about my annual physical today. Scheduled for next week. They wanted to know when would be good to reschedule. I told her I drive a school bus so I'm open right now. She just laughed and said I'm going to stay open. Got an email from the district trying to soften things up, that we probably won't go back on April 13. At the same time the Govenor was doing an interview saying we probably won't be back until September. Typical government bureaucracy. Everybody has a different story. Try to settle down and not panic. It's going to suck for a while. If it stops the virus, they will crucify Trump in the press for destroying the economy. If it fails to stop the virus, they will crucify Trump in the press for not stopping the virus and letting the economy fail. Truth is, the US is just one player in all of this. Hopefully we get an effective vaccine that doesn't harm too many people soon. By soon, I mean months away. | ||
| Sifo |
What's the difference between the infection rate of flu at passing it to 1.4 people vs. a virus that gets passed to 3 people? It doesn't sound like a big difference, does it. What about after it passing through 10 iterations? 1 x 1.4 = 1.4 1.4 x 1.4 = 1.96 1.96 x 1.4 = 2.744 2.744 x 1.4 = 3.8416 3.8416 x 1.4 = 5.37824 5.37824 x 1.4 = 7.529536 7.529536 x 1.4 = 10.5413504 10.5413504 x 1.4 = 14.75789056 14.75789056 x 1.4 = 20.661046784 20.661046784 x 1.4 = 28.9254654976 So after 10 iterations we infect 29 people. 1 x 3 = 3 3 x 3 = 9 9 x 3 = 27 27 x 3 = 81 81 x 3 = 243 243 x 3 = 729 729 x 3 = 2,187 2,187 x 3 = 6,561 6,561 x 3 = 19,683 19,683 x 3 = 59,049 59,049 infected people! That went bad in a hurry! Yes, that's the math on a virus being just a bit more infectious than the flu. Feel free to check my math. There may be a mistake in there. I'd actually like to know if there is. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/obs ervations-on-the-great-hunkering-6.php | ||
| Tpehak |
It's gonna be the biggest crisis in the history. (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 28, 2020) | ||
| Hootowl |
I sincerely hope this isn’t going to be the longest badweb thread ever. | ||
| Aesquire |
Biggest? Hah! Not even close. Pooh's Breath, at it's most pessimistic would still be a footnote after the Spanish flu of 1918 ( which came from China, btw ) and unnoticeable compared to the murders committed by Mao's regime, alone. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/03/c oronavirus_is_not_even_close_to_americas_biggest_p roblem.html | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/23/dissent-i n-a-time-of-covid/ Not even close to our biggest problem. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://9gag.com/gag/an5PDgb Ok, go ahead, Panic. Cell phone tracking from one beach in FL from Spring break 2020. F&^% their parents. Figuratively, of course. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://9gag.com/gag/aro7Zqp virus chart | ||
| Tpehak |
Than deadlier the virus, than it is less dangerous for society because of it dies with person and can not be spreaded widely. | ||
| Hughlysses |
Very interesting paper: https://quillette.com/2020/03/27/covid-19-science- update-for-march-27-super-spreaders-and-the-need-f or-new-prediction-models/ High points- You’re much less likely to get infected outdoors, even in a dense crowd. Past epidemics show that some infected people are “super-spreaders” causing many times the number of infections compared to most people, and scientists don’t know why. | ||
| Hughlysses |
5 minute COVID-19 test ready to go: https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/27/a-new-fda-author ized-covid-19-test-doesnt-need-a-lab-and-can-produ ce-results-in-just-5-minutes/ | ||
| Hootowl |
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| Sifo |
It's not that I disagree with the Dr. in the above video, but he is stating what he "believes". He used that word. He's correct that we need data to determine better how many have been infected that we don't know about. That involves blood work for each test. That's a lot more invasive testing than the simple swab being used now, that we don't have nearly enough coverage with. More often than not, we simply have to do with the data we can get, rather than getting the data we want. This is especially true with time sensitive things. Even so, he is still acknowledging the need to not overwhelm the health care system as we saw in Italy. I would add to that China, Iran, Spain, New York City, and probably numerous other countries that we simply don't pay attention to. I know Detroit's HC system is very stressed, same with Chicago, New Orleans, and I'm sure others. To summarize, I agree with the need to test for antibodies and get those who are now immune back to work. I'm just wondering what percentage of the population we are talking about at this stage. As some love to point out, most people probably don't know someone personally who has been confirmed to have the virus. So lets say that the number of people who have been infected, but never tested is an order of magnitude larger than the confirmed positive cases. That would be about a million people right now nation wide. Many of those won't be part of the workforce in the first place. You can't really get the economy going on that. Even jumping to 2 orders of magnitude would mean about 10 million people. That's out of about 330 million in the US. That would give one safe worker out of every 33. Does someone want to do the math and demonstrate how more than 10 million people have been infected and recovered in just a couple of months? I know math can be hard, but it pays to do the math on this stuff. | ||
| Aesquire |
Than deadlier the virus... Yep. That's why Ebola wasn't a threat until airline travel in deepest Africa. The sick couldn't walk far enough to spread beyond a cluster of villages. Now, with better roads & bus travel, it's into the cities, and by plane... Killers like Marburg are called "poorly adapted" because they kill the host before it goes far. Covid-19 has a long contagious time and kills few hosts, so it's pretty well adapted. Really well adapted don't kill for decades and spread widely. The human papillomavirus HPV, for example. Autocorrect can duck up a post, eh? | ||
| Sifo |
Let me add a PSA about our pets right now. I've been getting our pup's food from chewy.com and love the service. Typically when an order is placed, it's shows up at my door the next day. I'm sure that performance varies on your location. My latest order was taken with notice that it's taking a week to 10 days to ship orders right now. On top of that, our usual food is out of stock. We found some locally, but that may not always be the case right now. Keep a deep pantry for you and your pet(s). | ||
| Ratbuell |
Hey, look at that. Extended testing here in the USA...and the mortality rate is at 1.5%. And dropping. Hmmmmmmm....... That stat is from this morning's news. I can't find anything online about it yet...but it is based on (like I've been saying) an increased testing presence, which is identifying previously-unknown sick people who would not normally have been included in the math. But, now that we're getting more widespread testing and identifying more of these asymptomatic people? The "death rate" is falling. Here's an article about Germany's 0.74% rate: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/germany-has-a -remarkably-low-coronavirus-death-rate-%E2%80%94-t hanks-largely-to-mass-testing-but-also-culture-luc k-and-an-impressive-healthcare-system/ar-BB11PpiJ? li=BBnb7Kz And from that article: Test, test, test The most important factor contributing to the low death rate is that Germany appears to be that it is testing far more people than any other European country. Scientists agree that a large number - probably a big majority - of all coronavirus cases never make it into the official figures because they are not severe enough for hospital treatment. The more widely a country tests, the more of these milder cases it will find. Are people still dying? Yes, and I don't mean to belittle that. But again - COVID is NOT a death sentence. Seriously. Once we get to 100% testing - or closer to it - we're going to see that death rate fall well below 1%. Like I've been saying - either the 1:3 transmission rate is bogus...or the uber-high death rate is bogus. If they were both true, we'd all be dead by now, after this thing roamed the globe unchecked since December. It looks like the transmission rate might be the true one...but the death rate? WAAAY overblown, now that we're seeing more blanket-testing procedures. | ||
| Sifo |
Hey, look at that. Extended testing here in the USA...and the mortality rate is at 1.5%. Ummm... I've been saying it's around 10 to 20 x as deadly as the flu. That pegs it right at 15 x. It looks like the transmission rate might be the true one...but the death rate? WAAAY overblown, now that we're seeing more blanket-testing procedures. Who's way over blowing this? I know I've used higher death rates among the confirmed cases, and those are accurate. I've never said it was the actual death rate though. This has been discussed numerous times. Germany is doing fairly well with it. They do have some issues reporting the numbers though. This was gone over in the video series that no one appears to watch, so I've stopped posting them. Hospitals are reporting numbers that are higher than what's making into the compiled totals. You could assume conspiracy. You could assume bureaucracy. My best guess is that they are doing OK, but not nearly that good. This is based largely on the numbers of serious/critical cases being reported. Their ratio of serious/critical cases to deaths is just way out of line. If their death rate were true, then there is something going on with the care being given. Are they not willing to share their miracle with the rest of the world? My money would be on a reporting problem. | ||
| Sifo |
How can we know the numbers from China are BS? When a single funeral home has more urns than the total official death numbers, you get a pretty good indication. Also, an interesting, non-invasive, early detection test for asymptomatic people. | ||
| Tpehak |
Army to build field hospital at Seattle's CenturyLink Field Event Center (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 28, 2020) | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/28/corona viurs-spain-logs-832-fatalities-in-24-hours-imf-co nfirms-world-recession/ Note that the "records" of deaths don't include countries who's leaders are dishonest. More related news posted on the Patriot thread. Didn't think riots in China or police insanity in the UK were germane to the plague. Caused by, & Used as an excuse for, political power plays aren't important if it's the plague you're interested in. |
