| Author | Message | ||
     Aesquire |
https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2 020/03/25/doing_a_double-take_on_chinas_no-new-inf ection_claim_122944.html Uh. Right. Sure. Whatever. It's amazing and discouraging how some people just can't grasp that you can't trust liars. I get how diplomacy forbids calling a foreign leader a lying sack to his face, in a futile effort to delay war. Even to the point of trying to limit the freedom of speech to avoid international incidents. But IMHO that just breeds distrust with the government. Because Americans are going to be rude amongst ourselves, anyway. And the fragile egos of Chinese and Iranian, etc. are going to be bruised because, internet. Boo. Hoo. | ||
| Fb1 |
Sifo: Should I consider the source of what you posted? Government spokesperson? Really? Wayle, that's up to you, not me. Consider? Yeah, sure, just as I consider the source of stuff you (or anyone else) post up. I'm pretty religious about vetting sources to my satisfaction, but your mileage may vary, as the saying goes. Do I trust Dr. Fauci with my life? No, not really. He's an HRC fan-boy (see below), and this fact makes me immediately suspicious and wary of anything he says. He may or may not have a agenda - personally, I believe that he does, and that his agenda is not in lockstep with our President's agenda - and so I take everything he says with a large shaker of salt. I found it interesting that early on in the town hall meeting from the White House the other day that President Trump was asked, several times, whether he and Dr. Fauci were getting along OK (I'm paraphrasing the questions that were asked). P45 basically winked and said, "Yeah, we're cool." That little exchange pretty much confirmed my suspicions about where Dr. Fauci's loyalties lie. I appreciate the conversation we're having, amigo.  ******************************* I posted-up the following images on 3/21, in response to this quip from Court re: Dr. Fauci: Classic, this morning, was Fauci dropping his head into his hands when President Trump went off on the “deep state”. These two e-mails give me great pause as it pertains to Dr. Fauci's political loyalties, and hence, I trust very little of what comes out of his mouth:   | ||
| Pwnzor |
How about some good news for a change... Don't panic. | ||
| Fb1 |
Do y'all remember what HRC said that day during her "performance" before the Senate and the House, as Dr. Fauci puts it? Hint: It had to do with Benghazi: https://youtu.be/TW8Vq6xM-fw Dr. Fauci was deeply moved by her performance that day. I wonder if he had tingles down his leg...  | ||
| Sifo |
So here's a point that is hard for most to wrap their heads around, but I'll just dive in with the data we have as of yesterday. I'll just be looking at the US. We currently show 85,435 confirmed cases. We have 1,295 deaths. It's indisputable that confirmed cases leads to critically ill cases, which leads to deaths. There's a real correlation there. Calculating the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths isn't straight forward though. The 85,435 confirmed cases will correlate to a number of deaths that we will know in the future. To look at it another way, the 1,295 deaths we have so far correlate with a certain number of cases in the past. So it takes 10 - 14 days for an incubation period before symptoms show up. It takes about 5 more days before people get to the ICU. It takes about a week in the ICU before they die. These are just the averages I've been hearing. If you disagree, plug in the numbers you think are right and do the math. Share with the class if you like. So we would be doing our testing somewhere between symptoms showing up and winding up in the ICU. Let's say it's only 2 days from testing to ICU on average. I'm guessing that's probably lower than the actual average BTW. Add those 2 days to the 7 day average in ICU before dying and we have about 9 days, on average, from being tested to dying. That means that on any given day, the number of dead, were likely tested 9 or more days ago. So what can we do with that information? Well, if we go back 9 days in the graph of infected people, we find we had 6,344 confirmed cases. That gives us about a 20% mortality rate from those who were confirmed to be infected. No, that has nothing to do with the actual mortality rate of the virus, just from the pool of people being looked at. I could easily be off a couple, or a few days on how far back we have to look. Like I said, plug in the numbers and do the math for what you think is right.d c At that point, you can use that percentage, to get an idea of how many deaths we will see from the current number of confirmed cases. If my numbers are on target, that would be around 17,000 dead from those 85,435 that have been confirmed as of yesterday. Here's the part where it gets kind of scary. In a similar way, the number of confirmed cases is off the timeline of the people who are actually infected because it takes 10 - 14 days from infection, to showing symptoms, and another couple, or few days to where people feel bad enough to go in and get tested. Let's go way on the low side though and use 10 days from infection to testing. That would mean that in about 10 days, we will have data on how many people were infected with the virus as of today, and got bad enough to seek medical help. Given that the infection has been doubling in the US in about 4-5 days, I'll go on the long end of that, and just say it will double twice in those 10 day. That gives us over 341,000 confirmed cases 10 days from now. If 20% of those eventually die, we are looking at over 68,000 dead. That's just based on what's in the queue at the moment. I'm really hoping that we are going to see results from the lockdowns that various states have done. So far, the exponential growth continues, but for the reasons outlined above, it will take 10-14 days for results to begin to show. My last day of work was 13 days ago, and MI was on the early side of this stuff. Let's just hope the infection rate changes in the next week. The data I used came from here... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ us/ | ||
| Pwnzor |
Hmmm... Mexico... They love it when their people flow across our border like a river, when their borders are closed to outsiders with brutal repercussions when violated.  | ||
| Tpehak |
USA is on the 1st place | ||
| Gregtonn |
Calculating the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths isn't straight forward though. No shit Buckwheat. G | ||
| Ratbuell |
Also with the largest population. Italy: 66 million. Britain, 66M. France, 66M. USA? 329 million - five TIMES the size. Mexico is 129M - populous, yes...but most people as a rule are LEAVING that nation, not ENTERING it. Total cases? Or cases per population? What's your focus? It's indisputable that confirmed cases leads to critically ill cases, which leads to deaths Nearly true, and more than a little sensationalist. Confirmed cases CAN lead to critically ill cases, which CAN lead to deaths. More people are recovering, than dying. Both confirmed, and never-tested. But nobody talks about that. | ||
| Ourdee |
Structural basis for the recognition of SARS-CoV-2 by full-length human ACE2 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/14 44 Transmission Potential of SARS-CoV-2 in Viral Shedding Observed at the University of Nebraska Medical Center https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23 .20039446v2 List N: Disinfectants for Use Against SARS-CoV-2 https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n- disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2 Relatively Stable SARS-CoV-2 Genome Is Good News for a Vaccine https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/relativ ely-stable-sars-cov-2-genome-is-good-news-for-a-va ccine-67319 Indiana COVID-19 Data as of March 26th, 11:59PM https://coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm | ||
| Gregtonn |
It would be interesting to overlay D vs R voting on that map. Before anyone says the virus doesn't discriminate, it kind of does. It likes high density population areas. G | ||
| Tpehak |
That coronavirus spread map completely correlates with night light. So you can just use nightlight map to predict coronavirus spread and intensity in regions.  (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 27, 2020) | ||
| Ourdee |
A merry heart doeth good like a medicine: but a broken spirit drieth the bones. Proverbs 17:22 (Message edited by Ourdee on March 27, 2020) | ||
| Ourdee |
A merry heart doeth good like a medicine: but a broken spirit drieth the bones. Proverbs 17:22 | ||
| Sifo |
Confirmed cases CAN lead to critically ill cases, which CAN lead to deaths. Nothing sensationalist about it. The can and do. The data on this speaks for itself. More people are recovering, than dying. Both confirmed, and never-tested. But nobody talks about that. Well, let's talk about that. According to the Johns Hopinks site (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.htm l#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) at the moment in the US, 753 have recovered and 1,301 have died. World cases are different simply because China is making claims that are way off the map different from the rest of the world. Want to keep talking about that? BTW, in my example, I used assumptions that really weighted things in the direction of being optimistic. | ||
| Ratbuell |
But again - nobody is talking about the people who get it (and if it's this supposed 1:3 infection rate, EVERYONE is going to have it), never show symptoms, and simply HEAL. Because unless we test every soul on the planet, we'll never know. There's S. Korea's numbers...which are also not being talked about. Anywhere. And they did the closest thing to 100% testing we have seen yet. But this is why I focus on deaths-per-population, because there is no way to know anything different. Any other numbers are pure speculation, because of the HUGE variable of "caught it, never got tested, stayed asymptomatic, and healed on their own". Those people ARE out there - if this supposed transmission rate is 1:3? There's no way they don't exist. And yet, they're not dying. Hell, they're not even PRESENTING SYMPTOMS. Nobody is talking about the comment made by the President's staff yesterday in the presser, that "models showed that we'd have tens of thousands of bodies by now and we simply don't - the models were wrong". 753 who PRESENTED and got TESTED, have recovered. How many others have recovered, who never presented, and never got tested? The ones who are tested, and who present symptoms, are the ones who are affected the WORST by the virus. They're not the ONLY ones affected by it. If you believe the 1:3 transmission ratio...there's no way they can be the only ones who have caught it. Not possible. Either the 1:3 transmission is bogus...or the numbers of people who catch it are WAAAAY higher than those who are presenting, and getting tested. You can't have both. | ||
| Willmrx |
Joe Walsh, Life of Illusion kind of fits for the current times. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tiOMu_Bf8Q | ||
| Court |
The flu scares me . . . . .  | ||
| Court |
The same accident———injury —— death sequence applies to driving cars also. I’m getting it now. Ferris ...... I tend to agree about Fauci and think it reinforces President Trump’s ability to bring really smart folks to his team ....even those who he may not align with idiologically. I learned, while serving in the USMC, about teams and team building. I’ve been on teams where my life hung in the Baal ace of us “getting it right” and we had no control over the composition of the team. For a good study of the dynamic......check out  | ||
| Aesquire |
By this time next year you'll get tested for Pooh's Breath automatically with every blood draw for other reasons. Then we'll have harder numbers on the "got it, got over it, was never tested" category. | ||
| Court |
You can learn a lot about Buell by reading that book as well. Talk about a diverse group of talented folks !! I was turned on to the book by Dave Gess .... one of my best friends who is my political polar opposite and one of the smartest people I know. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2020/03/27/h undreds-die-in-iran-after-drinking-poison-cure-for -coronavirus/ The deaths from methanol poisoning are typical of a prohibition society. That it's overtly religious rules, vs. The multicultural cults that gave us in the U.S. bathtub gin deaths and the explosive growth in organized crime, matters little to blinded and dying people. I'll give some horrible credit to distrust of the fundamentally dishonest regime. And full credit to social media idiocy. Criminally incompetent moonshiners, and criminally negligent adulterators, deserve being staked out on an ant hill. Expect public beheadings in Iran. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/03/26/seiu-h ealthcare-union-suddenly-finds-39-million-n95-mask s/ Evil international communist union profiteers on the suffering of others. | ||
| Sifo |
But again - nobody is talking about the people who get it (and if it's this supposed 1:3 infection rate, EVERYONE is going to have it), never show symptoms, and simply HEAL. Because unless we test every soul on the planet, we'll never know. Discussion of that simply isn't pragmatic. There's S. Korea's numbers...which are also not being talked about. Anywhere. And they did the closest thing to 100% testing we have seen yet. Well I talk about S. Korea. I just did a post yesterday at 10:08 AM, complete with graphics. I've mentioned them often. The videos I post talk about S. Korea every stinking night. I think the problem may be that you aren't listening. But this is why I focus on deaths-per-population, because there is no way to know anything different. Any other numbers are pure speculation, because of the HUGE variable of "caught it, never got tested, stayed asymptomatic, and healed on their own". Those people ARE out there - if this supposed transmission rate is 1:3? There's no way they don't exist. And yet, they're not dying. Hell, they're not even PRESENTING SYMPTOMS. Well, we simply won't have deaths-per-population on this until it's completely run it's course. By then, you can't do ANYTHING to improve the results. Nobody is talking about the comment made by the President's staff yesterday in the presser, that "models showed that we'd have tens of thousands of bodies by now and we simply don't - the models were wrong". I'll talk about it. I don't know what models predicted that, but right now we are at about 1,300 dead. Double that 3 times and we are there. This virus is progressing with a doubling in the US about every 4-5 days. So the models may have been off by about 2 weeks. That's not that bad when you are dealing with incomplete data in the early stages of a pandemic. Depending on when the models were done, the entire difference may have been made by limiting travel from infected countries. It's a dynamic situation where things are changing daily, including what government is doing to slow it down. It's clear to me that you still don't grasp the exponential nature of what we're dealing with. Very small changes early on have drastic impact on the outcome later on. It's just how exponential math works. 753 who PRESENTED and got TESTED, have recovered. How many others have recovered, who never presented, and never got tested? The ones who are tested, and who present symptoms, are the ones who are affected the WORST by the virus. They're not the ONLY ones affected by it. If you believe the 1:3 transmission ratio...there's no way they can be the only ones who have caught it. Not possible. Either the 1:3 transmission is bogus...or the numbers of people who catch it are WAAAAY higher than those who are presenting, and getting tested. You can't have both. I don't think what you said there is in dispute. Of course there's a bunch of people who have gotten it and not had symptoms. That's great news. That doesn't change the news that deaths are growing exponentially. Another thing that's not being talked about much are the ones, often young ones who come in with mild symptoms and recover, but will now have severe scaring in their lungs for the rest of their lives. Those by the way, get counted as "recovered". Somehow I would still tend to focus on those who we know are going to die from this. They will get infected. They will get critical. They will die. It's a statistical certainty. | ||
| Sifo |
Nobody is talking about the comment made by the President's staff yesterday in the presser, that "models showed that we'd have tens of thousands of bodies by now and we simply don't - the models were wrong". Well since I wrote my original reply to this, things have changed. We are no longer at about 1,300 deaths, but 1,438 now. They will add up quickly as this gets really rolling. (Message edited by Sifo on March 27, 2020) | ||
| Tpehak |
Vandalism is rising here in Seattle. Civil war is coming? | ||
| Aesquire |
Civil War? In Seattle? Enjoy. But I doubt it. Have you considered anti-anxiety medication? 21 year old Glenfiddich aged in rum barrels is quite good! But the price might cause anxiety.   | ||
| Ratbuell |
1,438 now is still significantly less than the model's "hundreds of thousands".... | ||
| Sifo |
I thought it was tens of thousands. Like I said, give it about 2 weeks, not 45 minutes. 1,475 now. | ||
| Tpehak |
There is an interesting theory about why in Russua and some another countries coronavirus goes very slow, and why in Europe and USA coronovirus epidemic raises at alarming rate. The thing is Russia has mandatory BCG vaccination for each person, USA and Europe do not practice it. It might be BCG stimulates lungs immune. (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 27, 2020) |
