| Author | Message | ||
     Sifo |
Hospital Capacity Crosses Tipping Point in U.S. Coronavirus Hot Spots Hang on tightly. It's going to get bumpy. FIFTYS! | ||
| Sifo |
I think it was Ratbuell that asked, if it's that bad, where are all the bodies getting stacked. Is seems that in NYC, they are being stacked in refrigerated trucks. There are days I hate being right. | ||
| Court |
This virus goofiness has toasted Biden ..... he’s looking like a confused, disoriented fellow. This may have saved Sanders. President Trump’s numbers are soaring to the best they’ve ever been. I’m sticking to my “30,000 DJI by 9/1/20”. America, historically, handles national adversity really well. If there is a “victim” .....it’s the media. When I was young they reported “news”. Now they taunt and tease . . . Generally treat the President with disrespect (he ain’t doing much better, in terms of civil behavior) and act like spoiled children. Interesting times indeed. | ||
| Fb1 |
Sifo: Come on. Ignore who's reporting on it and focus on the data. Ignore the possible bias of the source? No thanks.
Let's make a bet: If this "data" proves to be correct, I'll buy the beer next time we talk politics face-to-face at Buells in the Alps. (BTW, thank you for our last face-to-face there.  ) Conversely, if this data proves to be incorrect, you buy the beer. Deal? By the way, the first "article" you posted, the one from Yahoo "News," there are several immediate red flags. First, it cites a study out of Washington State. Sadly, the government of Washington State leans hard left. This is not proof of anything, but it's a red flag that shouldn't be ignored, IMO. Secondly, this study is put forth from a group at the University of Washington. Sadly, UW also leans hard left (as do most major universities). This also proves nothing, except adding another, even larger, red flag to the mix. And then thirdly: If it were me and I was wanting to post up this article to make a point, I'd first do some research on who exactly the very aspicious-sounding "Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation" is. Who are these people, who runs this group (and what is their political affiliation), where do they get their funding, that sort of thing. I choose not to take the time to do this research, but I encourage you to do so. If you do, please post up your findings? Lastly, many people only scan headlines, and form much (most? all?) of their political opinions this way. You really don't even have to read the article, do you? The headline all by itself...
...is enough to paint the narrative, whether the "study" is true or not. The Bloomberg headline is probably even worse in this regard:
I wonder what percentage of well-meaning folks only read the headline, never bothering to take the time to discover the ridiculously low sample size, that the "study" took place in communist China (a bastion of honesty and truth!), and that the article clearly states "The results of the study weren’t statistically significant." Well then, why the •••• even publish the article in the first place? Because it's the headline that does the damage. (And who is it intended to damage? Our president, of course.) Bloomberg and Yahoo? What's next, a breathless headline from CNN or MSNBC? | ||
| Ratbuell |
On the news just now: "The models were predicting hundreds of thousands of dead by now...and that's just not happening. Things just aren't matching the models." Hmmmm.... Worse than the flu? By numbers...barely. And again - flu has TREATMENTS, and it still kills as many as this thing has. Is this worth crashing society at large and ending Western civilization as we know it? No ••••••• way. Whoever tells you it is, is either selling something, or they have an agenda. One in FOUR THOUSAND chance of dying from this, at the midrange models for the USA. One in TWO THOUSAND at the high-end model. One in TEN THOUSAND at the low end model - which, given current trends, seems most likely. Yeah...that doesn't make me lose sleep. Over your lifetime, you have about the same odds of being struck by lightning. One. In TEN THOUSAND. Woo. Hoo. | ||
| Fb1 |
Sifo: To be fair, it's not something that's been widely studied. Both studies were way too small and not well controlled. Hey, we agree on something! The "studies" don't matter one iota, however. It's the headlines that do the damage. Do you see the bias now? | ||
| Sifo |
I'll tell you what. If you're right, I'll happily buy you a beer. We might want to make later that breakfast next time though. BTW, I was very happy you got a hold of me there. Very enjoyable. I would like to think that the study of medicine hasn't been completely distorted by politics yet. The reporting, yes, but I hope not the study. I voice my skepticism about the Chloroquine right away. Way too small and lacking good controls. That doesn't prove chloroquine isn't effective, but the study was not very solid. Neither is the study that finds chloroquine doesn't work. | ||
| Fb1 |
Sifo: I'll tell you what. If you're right, I'll happily buy you a beer. We might want to make later that breakfast next time though. BTW, I was very happy you got a hold of me there. Very enjoyable. What, you've never had beer for breakfast before? Here's something I've seen all over the internet today. I could probably post up a dozen similar links, but this one should suffice:
Source, more: https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-m an-spooked-world-coronavirus-model-walks-back-pred iction/ Hey, it was a "study," so it must have been true... | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/kev in-roche-dear-commissioner-malcolm.php More on the above. When predicted deaths track not reality, but political bias of the news company involved, journalism is deader than Nietzsche. Frankly I have doubts that any of the "studies" actually exist, and have less than zero confidence in the spin of the reporting on any studies. My complaint that the weaponization of science by politicians has given us The Boy Who Cried Wolf effect, is on full display. When there is zero reason to trust "The news" then it is no longer capable of giving warning of danger. | ||
| Fb1 |
Well isn't this interesting. Published today in the New England Journal of Medicine, and the lead author is none other than (the suddenly-infamous) Dr. Fauci:
Source, more: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 | ||
| Fb1 |
Bingo! Dr. Birx confirms the validity of Horowitz's reporting above, during her portion of this evening's White House coronavirus briefing. Her remarks regarding Imperial College's massively-adjusted Covid-19 numbers take place at the very beginning of this 4:38 clip, but it's worth watching and listening to in its entirety, IMO, as she also calls out the Fake News: https://youtu.be/qUWZA43UblM | ||
| Sifo |
Well, that's certainly a part of the puzzle. Next paragraph...
And then...
So even if the true death rate is equal to the flu, (which he carefully DID NOT say), we still have a virus that transmits better than the flu, zero herd immunity, and not vaccine. All things being equal, you would have many more infections than we see with flu, therefore many more deaths. The best defense against this that we have is changing our behavior. The big problem with that is when people go back to old habits, you will almost certainly see the virus surge again. I really hope I'm wrong about that, but the videos that people refuse to watch before dismissing, have been quite on target up to this point. He does have a PHD in epidemiology. Should I consider the source of what you posted? Government spokesperson? Really? Here's the thing. I've not been hung up on the exact "actual" death rate. We will never know that for certain anyway. We do have data on those who have been serious enough to be tested. We have a pretty solid death rate on that from various areas. Like it or not, that is predictive. Knowing the R0 value gives us insight into how long it takes infections to double. It doesn't matter if you are talking about unknown infections, or confirmed infections. They will both double. So will deaths. Confirmed infections have been doubling in the US about every 4-5 days. Right now we 83,836 confirmed cases in the US. 5 days ago we were at about 33,300 confirmed cases. Those are facts that don't give me the warm fuzzies. More infections is more deaths. More ICU beds filled. More bodies stacked in refrigeration trucks. Those are family to people. | ||
| Gregtonn |
It seems that some people are finally realizing many important variables were left out of the equation. My hope is that the Chicken Littles will begin to accept that and we can get on with our lives. Although to be fair Chicken Little really believed the sky was falling. Most of the fear mongering related to the Coronavirus is being hyped for political gain or "fifteen minutes of fame". On the other hand some of it is just plain ignorance. G | ||
| Sifo |
For what it's worth... I'm not big on any predictions. One of the biggest variables is how we react to what is happening. Right now, we are being forced to change behavior in a way that will help to minimize infections. If we could get people to do voluntary things like wearing masks when in public, we could have a huge impact on this. I really don't know if our society is willing to do that. I have know idea who said it, but long ago, I remember hearing "don't bet on anything that can talk". Following that has served me well in life. | ||
| Pwnzor |
Right now we 83,836 confirmed cases in the US. 5 days ago we were at about 33,300 confirmed cases. There is no way you can know how many new cases there are. If they have it today, they likely all had it 5 days ago before those cases were confirmed. Everybody's on about this thing, so it's being over reported to the point that it is completely dominating the news cycle... ...which is exactly what it's supposed to do. It's working exactly how THEY want it to. What I did hear in the press conference was the people who are actually in the know telling us that those who thought they were in the know were in fact NOT in the know. I don't know if I have it, and I will likely never know if I had it, because I will not submit to testing for it. I have no symptoms. On Monday, I'm picking up a load of pharma-whatevers and take it straight into Manhattan and deliver it to Columbia University where I assume they are doing some kind of COVID research. I'm charging an insane amount of money for said delivery, and I'm not going to worry one bit about getting the virus. | ||
| Sifo |
Greg, you continue to belittle people who you disagree with. The reality is that the US is in the middle of a huge undertaking to limit the transmission of this virus. Even so, it's overrunning hospitals in NYC. I hate to think about where we would be if we simply tried to ignore what is happening. Calling people "Chicken Littles" when bodies are being stored in refrigeration trucks is really ignoring reality. | ||
| Gregtonn |
Greg, you continue to belittle people who you disagree with. Nope. I just call'em like I see'em. G | ||
| Sifo |
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| Aesquire |
So if one of you is Chicken Little, then the other is the Grasshopper? ( from a different tale ) And I assume the Socialist Democrat Media Cabal is Foxy Loxy? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henny_Penny | ||
| Pwnzor |
ok, that was pretty good. Thing is, Godzilla is the government. So he kills as many or as few as he wants to in order to achieve his own goals. | ||
| Sifo |
I'll post another video, just because he is spending a lot of time on what has been discussed here today. Someone with a PHD in epidemiology can explain it far better that I can pretend to. Or stick your head in the sand. | ||
| Tpehak |
There are so many dead bodies in New York City they just dump the bodies in refrigerator trucks. (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 26, 2020) | ||
| Gregtonn |
As to "Bodies stacked in refrigeration trucks." I'm not sure of your source on that but again you are probably ignoring some major factors in the equation. Due to lock down I suspect funeral homes are shut down, so the bodies have to be kept someplace. Also people can't get out and make funeral arrangements. In addition if you could have a funeral for grandma, you could only have eight or ten friends and family at most. Many are going to choose to keep grandma in cold storage until this blows over. Once again it helps to back off and look at the entire picture. G | ||
| Tpehak |
Even the epidemic will bee completely suppressed it will take just one sick person to reignite the epidemic again and there is no way to stop it except everyone will sit home whole life or at least up to the moment when somebody will have invented effective vaccine (and vaccine against coronavirus is still questionable thing). | ||
| Aesquire |
For the love of Baal, don't Anyone tell Tpehak about Rabies! | ||
| Ourdee |
532,253 confirmed 24,072 dead 122,627 recovered https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboa rd/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 | ||
| 86129squids |
WHUTTT??? THHHEPK??? HUNNHHH??? | ||
| 86129squids |
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| Hughlysses |
Analysis of the trial that claims no benefit for hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19: https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma-asia/did-chlor oquine-really-fail-a-covid-19-study-or-was-it-just -trial-design-s-fault The patients were already being given other drugs to treat the virus. Adding hydroxychloroquine to the treatment regimen provided no additional benefit. That‘s very different from saying it doesn’t work. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/cov id-19-deaths-so-far-where-is-the-crisis.php The steps taken to limit the speed of the spread in the U.S. are unprecedented. And may work to limit the amount of overload on the hospitals, as advertised. We'll know soon. There was never a hope to stopping any plague from killing some people, or stopping it cold. Not crashing the system is the best outcome possible, probably. Note that total number dead over the entire year could end being less, or more, than the annual influenza, and that doesn't matter to the impact on the system they fear. ( where there aren't enough ventilators or oxygen supplies, etc. to support the seriously ill. ) I'm not going to speculate about the numbers. Earlier, I've said that no city in history has closed it's gates before a plague got in. And today, that may actually happen in a few villages in Europe who have shut off outside contact. More on that later, I'm sure it'll get crowed about by someone trying to make a political point. |
