| Author | Message | ||
     Ratbuell |
Deaths in the entire population is a matter of many factors. Key among them is how deadly it is when infected, how easily it's transmitted, care available, and efforts to stem the spread of the virus. My point exactly. Deaths occur in the real world. The real world is full of variables. Therefore...real deaths WILL be a result of real-world variables. And right now...the number of people in the USA who have died from a 14 day virus in the last - in reality - 150 days (since Covid appeared in China in what...November?...and there is no way to tell who/how many people migrated to/from China and anywhere else on the planet since then) is less than 1,000 people in the USA? Out of 329 million souls? What's the GLOBAL population? We have still, since November, with limited/late/low-level response until just a couple weeks ago, and "HUGE" transmission rates and "HUGE" death ratios, had fewer deaths around the globe, than the flu has killed in AMERICA. If this is as uber-contagious and uber-deadly as they hype it to be, we should have bodies in the streets by now, everywhere on the planet. We haven't been locked down for even 2 weeks yet. So, I'll ask again - with the "horribly deadly" virus, that's "horribly contagious" with a "huge death rate" that was given free reign around the globe for at least three months but more like five...where's all the bodies? Why do we still have the internet? Electricity? Food of any sort? Gasoline? Where's the massive shortages? Gunfire in the streets, for basic necessities? Massive health risk from unattended corpses strewn across yards, buildings, and public spaces? I don't think this is a nothingburger. It is something, and people ARE dying. I just don't buy that it's worth destroying all of Western Civilization over. Voluntarily. The cure doesn't match the disease. Until two weeks ago, this thing was roaming the planet, free from any obstructions. None. No travel restrictions. No medicines. No quarantines. And yet...here we are. Regardless of what ratio you use, less than 100,000 GLOBAL deaths does not justify trashing all of society. Deaths are deaths, whether you compare it to 'infected' or 'total population' doesn't matter when the numbers are, empirically, this low. Automobile accidents kill more than this thing has. Cigarettes kill more than this thing has. Yet...we still drive, and we still smoke. No bans, no shutdowns, no martial law, no nothing. Why now? It doesn't add up. | ||
| Whisperstealth |
RD, I ordered 5 liters of the alcohol. It should get to me by next Wednesday. I bought it from somebody in Kentucky. At least, that's where the seller claimed to be. I'm hoping it's not a scam, but after I already paid for the stuff I decided to look at his feedback. It's not encouraging. Only 8 feedbacks in the last six months, and none of the items were for alcohol... Oh well, if I got scammed, at least it wasn't for a ton of money... | ||
| Sifo |
You seem to be having difficulty understanding peoples reaction to this event. I agree with some of what you say. Some is what needs to be done to stop the spread of a virus. The politics of Pelosi is disgusting, but that doesn't mean she's pulling the strings. She's simply a bottom feeding opportunist. Why TP? It just works that way. My wife was in England when they had a strike on delivering fuel. She said that on day 3, people started to panic, and store shelves got cleared. Yes, TP too. That's why I stocked up long before the run on TP. The good news is that I'm not contributing to current unavailability. Hording of things is just a whole different level though. If you have a multi-year supply, you might just be a hoarder. I'm not trying to get people worked up into a panic. At the same time, I do like to have some understanding of what's going on. I don't claim to be the best mathematician out there. Far from it. At the same time, for a few years, I did have to understand and program algorithms given to me by a guy we just called Dr. Ron. He had a PHD in statistics, and it was his job to do predictive analysis for major retailers. I got to write the computer code to make his ideas work. I'd like to think I learned a couple of things. I get that people are hurting from all of this. I also question if it's worth it. That doesn't change the data that needs to be examined to understand the basic problem though. Sadly, we are now putting a price on the lives of the masses. Just exactly how much economic pain is 1,000 lives worth? 10,000 lives? 100,000 lives? Let me ask this question... Was it worth grounding the Boeing 737s because a few hundred people got killed? That's not meant to be rhetorical BTW. That's exactly what is being dealt with this virus. I'm curious what your thoughts would be. | ||
| Ratbuell |
Grounding an airliner is nowhere near the same scale as shredding western civilization by shuttering all businesses worldwide. The Boeing response? Was perfectly in tune with the problem at hand. Shutting down western civilization? Is NOT in tune with this particular threat. Given the number of people we've lost - WORLDWIDE - I'd say grounding a few aircraft would be more in line with this current threat. I agree we need to stop "the spread", at least until we know what it is. But right now...the numbers simply don't support the scale of response, and disruption of GLOBAL life, that we're seeing. This thing's been in the human race since November. If we were going to die by the thousands...we'd have done it already. It wouldn't be "coming"...it would already be too late. And yet...here we are. This "cure" is going to ruin society on a scale nobody can fathom - and that is not in proportion to the disease that we've seen to this point. It - a 14-day-incubation disease - has been able to run free for nearly four months since infecting our race. And this is all it's done? | ||
| Sifo |
I see you still haven't come to grips with the math on this. Keep in mind, it literally started with a single infection. It takes a long time to go from a single case to a global pandemic. Left unchecked though, you go from global pandemic to bodies on ice in skating rinks. BTW, Spain just go there. Earlier this month they were pushing tourist events. The difference between a minor outbreak and bodies stacked up is literally a matter of weeks with something like this. The good news is that we bought some time by not allowing travel from China, and later other countries. That, IMO, was the best move Trump made in all of this. It's likely saved thousands of lives at this point. In another month, it may be tens of thousands. | ||
| Sifo |
Grounding an airliner is nowhere near the same scale as shredding western civilization by shuttering all businesses worldwide. The Boeing response? Was perfectly in tune with the problem at hand. Shutting down western civilization? Is NOT in tune with this particular threat. Given the number of people we've lost - WORLDWIDE - I'd say grounding a few aircraft would be more in line with this current threat. I agree we need to stop "the spread", at least until we know what it is. But right now...the numbers simply don't support the scale of response, and disruption of GLOBAL life, that we're seeing. This thing's been in the human race since November. If we were going to die by the thousands...we'd have done it already. It wouldn't be "coming"...it would already be too late. And yet...here we are. This "cure" is going to ruin society on a scale nobody can fathom - and that is not in proportion to the disease that we've seen to this point. It - a 14-day-incubation disease - has been able to run free for nearly four months since infecting our race. And this is all it's done? My above reply, applies to this post also. I was typing it as you posted. | ||
| Ratbuell |
I've come to grips with the math. Globally, since patient zero in November (or October), we have lost fewer human beings than the United States has lost to a treatable disease called influenza. November, December, January, February, and part of March. Supposed 1:3 infection rate with a two week incubation period. Unchecked movement for nearly four months. If it was as bad as everyone says...it would have hit months ago. The pieces don't fit. | ||
| Aesquire |
It is a valid concern that any temporary loss of freedom may become the status quo. If it was as bad as everyone says...it would have hit months ago. If by Everyone you mean TV news? Then yeah, Bull patties. But it did hit months ago. That first unknown wave of Chinese workers and students that were flying around the world while the Chinese Gov. was concealing the problem, spread it all over. | ||
| Steveford |
I, for one, can hardly wait to enter a packed church on Easter when things return to normal. See you guys there! | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/loo king-up-in-the-u-k.php Doubt I'll be in a packed church except for funerals, weddings, or baptisms. ( and the first is most likely, as a close friend is in hospice care ) But you enjoy it, please. That's just personal preference. Ymmv. Every time I see a news report where the talking heads spout numbers I notice they do the math wrong. Some of the Doctors and economic pundits get it right. As the number of people tested goes up, the count for infected will rise. The percentage of bad cases & deaths will fall. It's important to remember that "reported cases" is made up of folk being tested, showing us very slowly ( and for a limited time ) The actual initial spread, plus tested folk from other countries/states/towns, plus tested freshly infected from the first 2 categories. Each of those 3 numbers ( that together equal the number given as "cases" or "infected" ) is important to know, to properly analyze the situation. Category 4 is everyone not going to a doc when ill ( with Pooh's Breath ), and everyone not tested, who is infected. It's impossible to count that. Later, we'll be able to make a good guess, but not yet. ( The noise is bigger than the signal ) Cat 4 will drive the increase numbers, but not in a linear way. The shape of that curve is important to know. ( again, not yet, IMHO ) ( lecture on statistical matrices deleted. You're welcome.  ) | ||
| Fb1 |
Link to the text of H.R. 748, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act : https://www.scribd.com/document/453273118/Cares-Ac t-Final-Text | ||
| Crusty |
Well; I just skimmed over the index; a very quick skim. Now I'm not up for reading the entire bill (kind of like most of our Congresscritters), so I'm wondering, what does it mean? The Guvmint's going to spend a sh*tload of money on fighting this crisis, but who gets what? I suppose I could sit down for a few days and try to sort it out, but I am not any kind of financial analyst. I just have to hope that they know what they're doing. (Message edited by Crusty on March 26, 2020) | ||
| Hughlysses |
Here’s one summary I saw. I don’t know if the final bill matched this or not.  | ||
| Ratbuell |
Scanning through the table of contents on the bill, I did see lots of stuff for railroad workers' unions. I was specifically scanning for the pay raise for House part, but didn't see anything... 883 pages. Oof. And, it's all legalese...ugh. But glancing through the TOC / topics...yep, it's Socialism without an election. Cover some loans with government money (make people indebted to the government, not the banks); give some people a pittance (or a "crumb") direct from the government - more reliance there. I'll have to keep scanning to find the pork. If anyone finds anything substantial in that link above...post the page number. | ||
| Hughlysses |
Search for “Howard” and “Kennedy” for a few gems.  | ||
| Pwnzor |
If they send me a check, I will not be cashing it. That's my tax money, and you can bet what's left of your bottom dollars that you'll be taxed again on the tax money they return to you. This is a massive redistribution scheme. What's next? "Get in the railcar, comrade..." | ||
| Sifo |
Ratbuell, You wrote this last night... Covid-19: 869 deaths out of 329 million Americans. Influenza: 23 THOUSAND deaths out of 329 million Americans. Which are you more afraid of? This morning I see the number, according to Johns Hopkins, is now 1,046. That's about a 20% rise in a matter of hours. If your odds of dying from this have changed by 20% in a matter of a few hours, I might suggest that your means of calculating those odd are flawed. Meanwhile, I was thinking about how you were saying things just don't add up. It almost sounds like you are concerned about conspiracies or something of that nature. You are probably right to be concerned about conspiracies, but I think things do add up. I get the feeling that you are looking for the evil that is behind all of this madness. I would suggest, that in this case at least, it's not working that way. I would however point out that evil people will seize onto a crisis like this to gain power. Politicians will push their pet issues into emergency legislation. People will buy every single roll of TP, hoping to profit on it later. That doesn't make the crisis not real. It's just that there are evil people who will seize onto peoples suffering to take advantage of them. Does that add up? | ||
| Pwnzor |
Here's my opinion. The evil behind this is composed of agents within our own government, in league with the Chinese Communists. The evil behind THAT evil is Satan himself. This thing happened by design and has been more successful than "they" could have imagined. It is, quite literally, the beginning of the End. For real this time. I'm at peace, so let come what may. Ever heard the saying, "Kill 'em all, let God sort them out"? Get yourself a good supply of popcorn. | ||
| Sifo |
Popcorn is sold out. | ||
| Sifo |
So I was looking at the infection graphs for individual countries on the Johns Hopkins site. Toss out China. They have lied about their data from before day 1. Pretty much every country shows a graph very similar in shape to the US, like this one I screen grabbed yesterday.  The only real exception I saw was S. Korea, who as I've also pointed out, did very aggressive testing right from the start, and took very draconian measures to stop the spread. Here's the screen grab of the S. Korean chart this morning...  Notice how they've managed to get the growth leveled off. That is successful management of a disease. I can only hope that the efforts in the US will show similar results. Not so far though. | ||
| Ratbuell |
Hmm. Page 84 - "Covered Individual". Says NOTHING about US Citizenship. Page 144: $1,200 TAX CREDIT per individual for the year beginning 2020 ($2400 for joint filings), plus $500 for every minor dependent. Sounds like it's not a check, just a tax rebate. Page 157 makes it look like you can pull out up to $100,000 from a retirement fund, penalty-free, and pay it back within 3 years. Page 213 - forming a committee to "report on our Nation's preparedness and supplies status". Pork. ...my brain is starting to itch... | ||
| Sifo |
Grounding an airliner is nowhere near the same scale as shredding western civilization by shuttering all businesses worldwide. The Boeing response? Was perfectly in tune with the problem at hand. Shutting down western civilization? Is NOT in tune with this particular threat. Given the number of people we've lost - WORLDWIDE - I'd say grounding a few aircraft would be more in line with this current threat. I agree we need to stop "the spread", at least until we know what it is. But right now...the numbers simply don't support the scale of response, and disruption of GLOBAL life, that we're seeing. This thing's been in the human race since November. If we were going to die by the thousands...we'd have done it already. It wouldn't be "coming"...it would already be too late. And yet...here we are. This "cure" is going to ruin society on a scale nobody can fathom - and that is not in proportion to the disease that we've seen to this point. It - a 14-day-incubation disease - has been able to run free for nearly four months since infecting our race. And this is all it's done? Interesting. It was grounding an entire fleet of airliners BTW, but that's just a nit pick. I'm sure we are in agreement on that point. When that was done, we weren't even clear about exactly what the problem was. It also wasn't clear that the action taken would actually prevent a crash. In the end, we don't know if any lives were saved at all. I agree it was a prudent move, but there's simply no way to quantify the benefit. What's going on with Covid 19 is pretty well understood in Epidemiology. It's just a matter of gathering the data for the disease you are studying. By the time the US started taking more draconian actions, we had reasonably good data on this virus. Far from perfect, but good enough to understand the general trajectory. The infection curve is predictable. The deaths that will follow those infections are also predictable. It's exponential growth. That's a very grim projection compared to airliners falling from the sky. The only question we are faced with, is how far do we let the growth go before taking serious action? See my above post about S. Korea. We have only one nation in the world that seems to have beaten this virus. Even they will relapse if the rest of the world doesn't follow though. | ||
| Ourdee |
How about a Chicken Pox party? https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/how-medical-c hickenpox-parties-could-turn-the-tide-of-the-wuhan -virus/ | ||
| Sifo |
Posting last nights video, just because it deals with the discussion we've been having. Feel free to watch and comment. Or don't. | ||
| Crusty |
 | ||
| Tpehak |
They release inmates here in Seattle. It's gonna be jungle out there. | ||
| Hootowl |
Only those already on work release. They basically only sleep there anyway. Did you watch the video you posted?  | ||
| Tpehak |
They can release them from work but they should stay in the jail. | ||
| Ratbuell |
Welcome to Liberal government. Keep that in mind when you vote in November. | ||
| Pwnzor |
Try to bear in mind that MANY inmates do not belong in jail in the first place. That being said, releasing inmates that DO belong in jail is generally NOT a good way to stop the spread of disease. |
