| Author | Message | ||
     Fb1 |
Which experts? Lots. Seriously?  | ||
| Sifo |
But the guy who always predicts doom is praised as a genius when things go bad. They forget the rest of the time when he's wrong. "I've predicted 9 of the last 3 market down turns."  | ||
| Sifo |
The Market was due for an adjustment according to several experts. This has been a lot more than an adjustment. One kind of funny thing, odd sort of funny, is that a lot of people were shorting Tesla, and their stock kept on going up and up. I remember hearing of the short calls happening on Tesla not long before this stuff hit the fan. I haven't been following Tesla's price lately, but I bet those shorts that got called are PISSED! | ||
| Court |
Neither the Wall Street Journal or Zero Hedge has EVER traded a single share of stock. | ||
| Hootowl |
I guess smart money would have been to short every stock. I plan to buy as much as I can over the next few weeks, including Tesla. I may mot have another shot. | ||
| Aesquire |
But you can bet the owners do. And, yes. Lots. The folk who predict 9 out of the last 3 market shifts are legion. More importantly, even if it was 3 guys out of thousands, those 3 guys get a disproportionate amount of news time/pages. | ||
| Tpehak |
Imagine drug or vaccine against coronavirus will cost $10000. Will you buy it? | ||
| Blake |
Sifo, Plotting "cases" is only plotting "positive test results" which vary and accelerate as more testing capacity comes online. It's not worth anything statistically in my view. Mortality is cold hard data though. Here's today's update. All the plots begin with zero mortality per million. If you started the U.S.A. plot when we accumulated 5 total deaths, the U.S.A. plot would move to the left by two days is all.  Here's the data...  | ||
| Tpehak |
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| Aesquire |
Some here are suffering from confirmation bias. Just because you didn't read the near daily barrage of "the sky is falling" market pundit screaming, doesn't mean it wasn't there. For example, I can honestly say I never read a bad thing about the 2000 Kawasaki Conquistador. I wasn't reading motorcycle magazines or news at all that year, and because I didn't, if you told me you loved your Conquistador, I'd believe you. And since I'm not a big Kawasaki fan ( I owned a 500 triple for a short time ) I'm not even certain they never existed... Did they? This isn't an insult, or argument. The doom predictions exist. The did exist, plenty of them, and they will tomorrow. Enough people believed them that the companies like Zerohedge make a profit on sales of doom related advertising! How do I know that? They still exist. Did I believe them? No. But I did read months ago about the Federal Reserve and how their actions weren't doing what some wanted, on multiple levels. ( some wanted X & others didn't ) And I have learned that bubbles burst, and they do so just when the optimistic pundits are cheering on the New Paradigm, or insisting things will always be like today. Overall, long term, I'm optimistic about the market. Unless the Glorious Revolution takes place in my lifetime, and Bernie ( or whoever ) is the Last freely elected President, and the economy and our lives look like Venezuela, we will rebound. My optimism doesn't mean I did not read the pessimistic view. I've tried not to be argumentative about the ever shifting numbers, other than to warn against premature conclusions. I especially don't want to be wrong about treatments or drugs to use, as while I actually do know something about the pharmaceutical industry, I don't want anyone to freaking die because of my opinion on zinc cold remedies. Either because they work and you feared them or they don't and you counted on them. I'm the guy that has spent decades trying to keep people alive until the ambulance arrives. Not a doctor that prescribes medicine. I'm well aware of the difference. IMHO MOST of the crash is hype. Much of that is political, from people that don't care if you die as long as they win, and can collect more bribes. That's cynical, but I do so think. Some of the dip, however, is business is hurting. As several here personally have been hurt. And some is because there was a bubble in prices over value. Feel free to assign percentages, I can't. | ||
| Sifo |
As long as we are going to discuss the markets, lets get into why this isn't an adjustment or correction. Those terms indicate that the market move is a result of stock prices not reflecting stock values anymore over a period of time. No doubt, there were many preaching that we were due for adjustment or correction. Here's the difference though. This drop in stock prices is the result of a specific event. True, it's hard to put an exact date on it, but it's clearly an event that precipitated the sell off. Just like when a pair of Boeing 737s crashed, Boeing stock prices didn't drop because investors simply thought that price and value had drifted over time. Just like now, it was a change in value because of an event. The need for a correction coming up to this point will certainly be argued, but it's a moot point, only worth discussion for the academics of it. Back to the beer virus... I notice the Johns Hopkins web page has made it possible to view graphs of confirmed cases by country. I was curious about the graphic posted earlier showing how the US data didn't resemble Italy at all. It's largely in the presentation. So I took the graph for Italy and US as produced by Johns Hopkins and overlaid them. It's far from perfect, because they have different start dates for the data, and the vertical scale is different. Still, it's interesting to compare the overall shape of the increase. Both have a very similar exponential growth curve. This was there in the earlier graphic for the US, just very difficult to see because it wasn't scaled in a way that showed it well. I won't offer an opinion on if it was for deceptive purposes or not. Bottom line, the US is on a trajectory that is very similar to Italy. Do the math. Be prepared.  | ||
| Aesquire |
Will you buy it? If I was richer, yes. As is, I'll wait until insurance covers it. The government will make it free...aka you'll pay for it. Btw, those first few thousand doses, if priced to pay for the research, would be tens of millions. There are 3 phases here. 1st is testing to see if the vaccine kills you. 2nd is to see if it works. 3rd is production and distribution. Then you will get a vaccine that probably won't kill you, and probably will protect you from the one strain of the disease they had samples of when they started. And that's as good as it gets. Probably won't kill you means some will die. Probably will protect you means some it won't and some will die. If you insist on perfection, look to the afterlife or fiction. | ||
| Sifo |
Sifo, Plotting "cases" is only plotting "positive test results" which vary and accelerate as more testing capacity comes online. It's not worth anything statistically in my view. Mortality is cold hard data though. Here's today's update. All the plots begin with zero mortality per million. If you started the U.S.A. plot when we accumulated 5 total deaths, the U.S.A. plot would move to the left by two days is all. Blake, Impeccable timing! You posted that as I was putting together my above post. Great refresh of the memory for my post! I think you will find that positive results and mortality will track quite well over time. True, the mortality rate will likely differ from country to country, but the will still track together. Graphs are a wonderful tool to help us visualize data. Here's the thing though. The way it's presented in that graphic, just because of the vertical scaling, it's very difficult to see the exponential growth. If you were to graph the US data by itself, and scale it to the full vertical scale, it would be just as visible. True, the rate of growth has been different in Italy. Many factors will play into that including demographic and early response to the threat. I'm grateful that Trump closed the US to travel from China early. Italy didn't. That fact alone will change the shape of the early part of the curve quite a bit. Changing the shape early on, has a big effect on when the sharp upturn happens, but it still happens. The biggest question I have for the US is how overwhelmed the hospitals get. That answer will have a huge impact on the shape of the mortality curve. When the patients are laying on the floor of the hallways, you are not giving them good care. Good discussion! | ||
| Fb1 |
Sifo, Plotting "cases" is only plotting "positive test results" which vary and accelerate as more testing capacity comes online. Bingo. | ||
| Hootowl |
If I were dying of coronavirus, yes, I would pay 10k for the cure. Just as I would happily pay 10k to cure my stage 4 lung cancer. So yeah, that’s sort of a ridiculous question. | ||
| Sifo |
Sifo, Plotting "cases" is only plotting "positive test results" which vary and accelerate as more testing capacity comes online. Bingo. There's truth in that statement, but not the whole truth. It's an important part of the data. Plotting deaths per million citizens doesn't give a good picture either, especially early in the infection curve. Deaths per million will be affected by demographics, travel restrictions from infected areas, travel restrictions inside the area being studied, availability to adequate health care just to name a few. My point here is that exponential growth is going to provide the same basic curve, regardless of how it may be slowed in the short term. Eventually, you find yourself overwhelmed and wonder how you got there. | ||
| Sifo |
Let me put it this way. On day 22 the US had 1.218 deaths per million citizens. On day 11 Italy had 1.306 deaths per million citizens. So the US is seeing a growth in deaths at half the pace of Italy, right. That means that instead of our health care system being overwhelmed in 2 months, it will be overwhelmed in 4 months. Of course extrapolating such early data is not necessarily going to be that reliable. A huge error could fall in either direction. It's where we are with the limited data though. Enjoy the extra 2 months!!! | ||
| Tpehak |
You have unique chance to ride on empty streets in Seattle. (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 23, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
They are putting Michigan on lockdown midnight tonight, for at least 3 weeks.  | ||
| Court |
Denmark 3 more weeks. | ||
| Tpehak |
It's gonna be disaster. | ||
| Whisperstealth |
From CNN website: Michigan Governor Whitmer is banning gatherings, public and private, of any number of people. This does not apply to single households where people may already live together. No way that should survive a legal challenge in an honest court. Good luck enforcing it. Thousands of people living in the projects, and your going to try forcing people to not talk to their neighbors or visit their apartments? Even if you encourage people to rat out violators, there isn't enough manpower or jail space to enforce the order. People are going to have to voluntarily quarantine to slow the spread. | ||
| Sifo |
Mortality is cold hard data though. Here's today's update. All the plots begin with zero mortality per million. If you started the U.S.A. plot when we accumulated 5 total deaths, the U.S.A. plot would move to the left by two days is all. I know moving the starting point by 2 days doesn't seem like much, but when you get to the right side of the graph, using the data in the table you supplied, it's the difference of 401 dead on day 22 vs. 225 dead on day 20. That's exponential growth. Our minds have a hard time grasping this idea, just because we don't normally deal with it in everyday life. That's almost a doubling of the dead in 2 days. It's about the exponential nature of viral spread. | ||
| Pwnzor |
Brian Kemp, Governor of the great state of Georgia stuck with common sense. Shelter in place for those at high risk such as living in convalescent homes, extended period of respiratory disease, and closed all bars and night clubs. Gatherings of 10 or more are prohibited unless you can maintain social distancing. All day at work I heard the idiots repeating, "the governor is going to lock us down, everything is going to be closed." Nope. I called it. And I said it all day, and everybody was telling me how wrong I was. | ||
| Willmrx |
R.I.P, middle class. It was fun while it lasted. | ||
| Hootowl |
Wow. I died and didn't realize it. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus- psychology-of-viral-paradoxes/ | ||
| Sifo |
Brian Kemp, Governor of the great state of Georgia stuck with common sense. ... Yeah, that's where we started last week.  Good news for me, I spoke with my realtor today. He told me that the details will probably be worked out tomorrow, but the closing on our house will still be happening. Probably electronically, or by mail. | ||
| Zac4mac |
Partner at the shop told me the landlord is going to cut us a break on rent. Maybe I can pay the bills with SSI. Still getting work, no real change in any habits. yet BTW Rode the Uly today. Z | ||
| Tpehak |
Coronavirus Shutdown Seattle |
