| Author | Message | ||
     Pwnzor |
To hear a certain member with the city in his name tell it, Fresno is a friggin paradise. I went there a lot as a teenager, and found it to be a shithole, by and large. The rural areas are nice, but the city was pretty much north Compton. | ||
| 86129squids |
It's all good, Hoot. Thought maybe I was labeled "leftist". I'd like to think I'm centrist, but that thought makes me dang lonely. Don't even know if I should mention it, but my second and last table last night was a brother/sister couple, visiting at dinner after a long time apart. Turns out the brother had just returned from an overseas trip to Hong Kong. He asked for bottled water, per SOP I brought two rocks glasses garnished with lime wedges. He balked and refused his glass, scared of the lime wedge. I went back to the bar, swapped that glass for another, no wedge, and handled it with a bevnap. They ended up being very nice, cognizant of my role in their evening, tipped properly. My first table, a call party, dropped a guest, ended up working in all the gift cards and discounts they could find, tipped me on the adjusted amounts. A$$hats. Now what? Like Greg said on the other thread about his buddy, my work is gone. Unless my parent company steps up, maybe the government, I'm in freefall. Anyone got work for me? Vern's in the same boat too, spoke with him yesterday. | ||
| Sifo |
I've seen chloroquine mentioned in a number of places as a treatment. Frankly, a 100% cure claim in a study with 40 people is questionable at best. Assuming a 2% death rate, it's not even unlikely to just have all 40 people recover naturally. You would also need a percentage of those 40 people being a control group. Lot's of info missing from this. Ages of people, how sick were they at the start of treatment, or did treatment start as soon as they tested positive for the virus? Here's the thing... Chloroquine has been in use as a treatment for covid-19 since early on. If it were a 100% cure, I'm sure it would have been noticed without a formal study. I hate to be negative about good news, but it sounds like it may be largely hype. | ||
| Ratbuell |
This whole THING seems to be largely hype. I say that based on the article posted above, about the S. Korea numbers. I'm a numbers guy - and they have hard numbers. Read that article, it is much more concrete information than we have here at home where we're not efficiently testing...well...ANYone, really. But, SoKo has tested over 300,000 people and is publishing the stats about what's happened to those people. As well as what happened on board a petri dish...er, cruise ship. Captive audience, hard numbers, pure fact. No hype. | ||
| 86129squids |
Just got called off my shift tonite, which I was expecting. They'll run with two servers, just like last night. At last word we had 4 covers. That's four guests. Restaurant is closing 2 hours early, 8pm. My GM is heading to a town meeting for West Knoxville at 8pm. I'm fully expecting to get word in the next 24 hours that we're shut down. And here's this story. Joe, what say ye? https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/817342965/how-the-c oronavirus-fallout-could-be-devastating-to-the-pra ctice-of-jazz | ||
| 86129squids |
Also- spoke with my cousin about his daughter's wedding Saturday. He's tried to get her to reschedule, she refuses. Her mother-in-law is ill, can't make it. Her maid of honor isn't coming. The priest even asked her to reschedule. Cuz was apoplectic about her hardheadedness. Catholic wedding. M thinks she's knocked up, as to why no cancel. Jeez. | ||
| H0gwash |
The center is not as lonely as it sounds because moderates on both sides of the aisle will listen to you. If you could deliver to CA before it got cold, I'd order a couple meals from your kitchen but ya know, logistics. | ||
| Hootowl |
‘ It's all good, Hoot. Thought maybe I was labeled "leftist".’ Not my intent, certainly. I was commenting on the article linked in the previous post. I should be more precise. | ||
| Gregtonn |
So maybe I can help add some logical perspective to this situation with a few questions. 1. How many people do you personally know who have or has had the Coronavirus? 2. If do you know someone did they die or are they seriously ill? 3. How many people do you personally know who have or have had the flu in the past two months? 4. If do you know someone did they die or are they seriously ill? Do you understand the point? G | ||
| Sifo |
1. How many people do you personally know who have or has had the Coronavirus? I know of 1 person who's grandmother was diagnosed. 2. If do you know someone did they die or are they seriously ill? She was seriously ill, and expected to die in less than a week when I heard about it on March 12. I don't have any updates. Won't have any while school is out. 3. How many people do you personally know who have or have had the flu in the past two months? Unknown. BTW, I've never been officially diagnosed with flu with a test. Have you? 4. If do you know someone did they die or are they seriously ill? Unknown. Do you understand the point? No. The two situations are quite different. There is a good amount of herd immunity with flu. Flu vaccines give a good deal more immunity to flu. There is zero herd immunity to the beer virus, and it has just started to go through the population. Even with a similar mortality rate, the situations are apples and oranges. Of course, the more conservative estimates at this point have the mortality at 10x to 20x the flu. Other estimates are much higher. Of course, how badly overrun the health care system becomes has a lot to do with that. | ||
| Ratbuell |
Did you read the article posted above, about S. Korea and the cruise ship? As I said - those are hard numbers. Finite quantities. Actual fact. Agreed, there is herd immunity with the normal flu. But again - C19 is not a death sentence. Most people who get it - according to areas who are actively testing and tracking - don't even show symptoms. EVER. And they simply get over it - it runs its course and it's done. Yes, they can spread it during that time...but it isn't killing them in the process. Read that article. That is the closest thing I have seen to actual testing results - MASS testing results (over 300,000 S. Koreans), and fixed-population "control group" numbers (cruise ship, 4100 people). With concrete results. This is not Captain Tripps. | ||
| Court |
We’re exercising caution. | ||
| Ourdee |
I am not all that worried about the Pooh's Breath V/D getting me. My concern is the loss of minds from people fanning fires in other's ears. I didn't start this thread to worry people, but because I saw something coming that we could prepare for. I truly hoped I was wrong. | ||
| Court |
Each person and family will make their assessment and deploy their own action plan. I hope they all choose wisely and am more than aware that I have no influence or control. Hoping everyone’s plan goes as well for them as possible. Enjoy that cruise. | ||
| Ratbuell |
Caution, I can see. That does not, in my book, equate to lockdowns, curfews, and the shuttering of our entire economy. At least, not at what appears to be the actual risk level according to those hard numbers. If this WERE Captain Tripps? That would be another story entirely. But I simply don't see the risk level that justifies shutting down an entire globe. Right now, I strongly suspect the panic is more dangerous than the actual disease. But the Diamond Princess cruise ship offers an interesting insight. It had nearly 4,000 people on board—many of them in risk groups. (Somebody who used to perform aboard cruise ships quipped that passengers are mostly “the newlywed and the nearly dead”  ) You’d expect these packed together on a ship in quarantine to be all infecting each others. And yet… 4,061 passengers and crew were examined, on board what effectively became an unintentional virus incubator. Only 712 contracted the virus (about 17.5%), of which 334 asymptomatic (8.2% of the total), leaving 378 (9.3% of the total) ill. Only 7 people died (1.85% of those ill, or 0.17% of all passengers and crew examined), all of them age 70 or older. (Remember, the passenger population is skewed toward the elderly.) That, in my book, is about as close as we're going to get to a true "control group" with this thing. 4,000 people trapped on a boat, isolated from everything else. Korea started a massive testing (according to Table 1 in the same report, nearly 300,000 people have been tested, at a current rate of 10,000 a day) and tracking program early, leveraging all available tech data — privacy concerns be darned. Observation 1: overall mortality is 1 (one) percent. Still one percent too much, to be sure. But considerably lower than what has been reported from some other places — I suspect because of undertesting. Observation 2: mortality in the 0-29 age bracket is nil — not one death out of 2,867 patients. Observation 3: in the 30-49 age bracket, just two (2) deaths out of 2,044 patients, or about 0.1%. Only above 50 does mortality start rising, over 60 in a worrisome fashion. (Not coincidentally, so do comorbidities/pre-existing conditions. I would love to see the statistics broken down between otherwise healthy people and those with chronic cardiovascular/pulmonary/immunity/diabetes problems, or cancer patients. Hypertension is apparently another major risk factor.) Observation 4: Note the interesting “gender gap”. Men (1.39%) have nearly twice the mortality of women (0.75%). I asked friends on Facebook familiar with South Korea, and they told me over half of men smoke, compared to fewer than five percent of women. Now what can we expect for older people who are otherwise healthy? Chinese data (caveat lector) suggest overall mortality for patients without comorbidities may be about one-third the overall statistic. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavi rus-age-sex-demographics/ And then there is the uncertainty factor of how many people are asymptomatic virus carriers. This is impossible to ascertain without a much more massive testing program (and this isn’t a test you can quickly do with a strip!), but I have seen estimates from 5-7 carriers for each overt disease case. Also pretty concrete (and with similar results to the cruise ship) numbers. 300,000+ tested. 8,413 confirmed cases. 84 dead. 1% of those infected, and 0.028% of the total population tested. 2.8 people out of every 10,000 COULD die from this. If you're compromised (heart condition, lowered immunity, etc). These, from what I can tell, are the facts. Not hype, not spin, not media. Fact. Numbers. Yes, people are dying. But no, people are not dying in droves. Italy has different numbers, but as noted in multiple reports, they have crappy healthcare and are a largely-older, largely-compromised (illnesses, smokers, drinkers, etc) population in general. Do we need common sense? Absolutely. Do we need caution? Yes. But panic? No, thank you. And that is what all these lockdowns and curfews are creating - panic. | ||
| Pwnzor |
https://summit.news/2020/03/19/migrant-labor-was-t o-blame-for-coronavirus-spread-in-both-iran-italy/ | ||
| Sifo |
Did you read the article posted above, about S. Korea and the cruise ship? As I said - those are hard numbers. Finite quantities. Actual fact. Agreed, there is herd immunity with the normal flu. But again - C19 is not a death sentence. Most people who get it - according to areas who are actively testing and tracking - don't even show symptoms. EVER. And they simply get over it - it runs its course and it's done. Yes, they can spread it during that time...but it isn't killing them in the process. Read that article. That is the closest thing I have seen to actual testing results - MASS testing results (over 300,000 S. Koreans), and fixed-population "control group" numbers (cruise ship, 4100 people). With concrete results. This is not Captain Tripps. I have read it. I largely agree with what you are saying. No, it's not a death sentence. No, it's not Captain Tripps. The cruise ship had those numbers get sick under quarantine though. Probably pretty bad quarantine, but probably good enough to largely contain the flu. That's noteworthy. They also have a 1% death rate so far. Only about 50% have been declared no longer infected though. I have no idea what the status of those 350+ folks is. They could be almost rid of the virus. They could be on death's door. These people also got first world medical attention with a health care system that wasn't overrun. That makes a big difference in the outcome. S. Korea has been the poster child of how to deal with this. I guess someone has to be the best, it's just a shame that the runner ups are so far behind. They did very aggressive testing and very aggressive contact tracing. They also got on top of it before their health care system got overrun. Again, that's critical! The current numbers from S. Korea are 8,565 tested positive, 91 dead, and 1,540 recovered. Why there are still 8,557 cases awaiting a resolution, I really don't have an answer for. Could be almost recovered. Could be on death's door. S. Korea is going to have numbers very different from the rest of the world due to their aggressive testing that no doubt have included many people who never had symptoms. It's going to be apples and oranges comparing them to pretty much any other country. Italy OTOH, 41,035 infected, 3,405 deaths, and 4,440 recovered. They, like most of the world weren't on top of testing until it was beyond the ability to trace. That means a lot of people unknowingly spreading it. Their health care system has gotten overrun, and that's showing in the death totals. They do not have a handle on stopping the spread either. So where does that leave us? Unfortunately, I would have to say that most of the world, including the US are most closely following the model that Italy is stuck in. Italy is just a bit ahead of the curve because of a lot of travel between them and China, and Iran (another hot spot). The good news for the US that I see is that we started limiting travel from China, and later other hot spot countries. That has bought us time, but the exponential growth is happening. It seems manageable for a while, but suddenly you realize that exponential growth is not manageable. Time will tell, but MI decided to shut things down when we had only 12 cases last Thursday. It's a week later and were at I think 116 cases last night. They are in the middle of updating that as I'm typing this. I'll update when the number is in. | ||
| Sifo |
Italy has different numbers, but as noted in multiple reports, they have crappy healthcare and are a largely-older, largely-compromised (illnesses, smokers, drinkers, etc) population in general. Well the health care got crappy as soon as the numbers of ill overran their hospitals. It doesn't really take top notch health care to treat pneumonia complications. Ventilators aren't exactly cutting edge stuff, but they simply ran out of equipment. That is likely to become a world wide thing. I really hope I'm wrong about all of this, but Italy doesn't paint a good picture. | ||
| Sifo |
And MI chimes in just now with 171 cases. That's doubling the cases about every day and a half. Do the math! | ||
| Ratbuell |
I don't disagree with the numbers of cases. What's being lost sight of, is the percentage of actual DANGER to those who do have the illness. Just because you have it, doesn't mean you're walking dead. I agree you should keep yourself private until the symptoms pass...but you don't have to go drafting your will, or buying a coffin. "Highly contagious" and "highly fatal" are two entirely different concepts. Our press seems to have forgotten that distinction. | ||
| Gregtonn |
Italy OTOH, 41,035 infected, 3,405 deaths, and 4,440 recovered. Without 100% testing of the population the "infected" and "recovered" numbers are baseless speculation and less than useless. You have a math equation with the most significant part missing. It is well documented that many people are infected without obvious symptoms. This is the sort of thing that fuels panic. G | ||
| Ratbuell |
My point exactly. If we don't know how many people actually HAVE it...we can't in any way shape or form have an idea of the symptom/sick/dead ratios. Which is why the cruise ship "experiment" is so telling. We KNOW how many people are in the "sample group". We KNOW how many people actually tested positive for the disease. We KNOW how many people actually showed symptoms. We KNOW how many people died. And...all with ZERO outside influences. They were, quite literally, a "control group" that was totally isolated from the rest of the planet, for the duration. Finally, something useful from a cruise ship. | ||
| Crusty |
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| Tpehak |
I'm just glad I don't have any credit. I have no idea how that mortgage crowd is going to pay their due during this financial crisis. The good news is this crisis is a good opportunity to buy a house for cheap for cash for those who doesn't want to deal with mortgage. (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 19, 2020) | ||
| Gregtonn |
I agree the cruise ship "experiment" is useful. Especially as a worst-case model for densely populated areas. Cruise ships are notorious for the rapid spread of infectious diseases due the density of their populations. G | ||
| 86129squids |
I love it when a song brings me beauty, and grateful tears. Working outside in the yard, had a snack on the deck, this came on WDVX. Here's another great one, very relevant now. | ||
| Sifo |
Without 100% testing of the population the "infected" and "recovered" numbers are baseless speculation and less than useless. Well by that measure, any data we have on cold, flu, ebola, mumps, measles, etc. is also less than useless. Of course, that's not true, and it's not true of Covid-19. It tells us a lot about those who get sick enough seek medical help. If you demand perfect data, you will be very disappointed more often than not. They were, quite literally, a "control group" that was totally isolated from the rest of the planet, for the duration. They were also under quarantine from each other. Granted, it was a far from perfect quarantine, but hopefully better than the subway. Hardly a good control group. It does give a good data point in one way though. The entire population was tested, as Greg says must be done. 1% of those infected has died, with good health care support. That's very good data telling us that it's about 10x as lethal as the flu. That's not good news for a world with 7.7 billion people and no herd immunity. Bodies would literally be stacked like cord wood. BTW, since I posted Michigan's numbers a few hours ago, it's been updated. It's no longer a jump to 171 cases, but a jump to 334. That's a huge jump from yesterday. Exponential growth accelerates as it goes. Do the math!!! Really, do the math!!! World wide infections just hit 100,000 a few days ago. It's now pushing 250,000. Do the math!!! | ||
| Tpehak |
In Italy 50% dead and 50% recovered from those who was registered as infected. (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 19, 2020) | ||
| Hughlysses |
Since we’re all practicing social distancing, this seems like an appropriate one: | ||
| Gregtonn |
That's not good news for a world with 7.7 billion people and no herd immunity. There are plenty of people still out in the wild contributing to "herd immunity". Just look at all the kids partying on the beaches in California and Florida. G |
