| Author | Message | ||
     Tpehak |
Here is scary fact. If all people on that ship would be infected with flu, none of them would die. But they are infected with coronavirus and 5% of them died no matter how hard they tried to save their lives. | ||
| 86129squids |
I'm 53. Type 1 diabetes. Grew up with asthma, grew out of that in my 20's, praise be to God. A bit overweight, got sleep apnea, would appreciate a CPAP but even a painter's mask suffocates me. Had a traumatic nose/sinus injury at age 5, always wondered about life without that incident. As a professional restaurant worker, I deal with the public daily, handling all their dishes, flatware and drinks. On the plus side, I've done this work for most of my life, lived for years with a woman who worked in childcare and eventually HeadStart. Rarely get sick from anything, haven't had flu or a real bad cold in years. Head cold, sure, sometimes a sore throat and cough. I've got a pretty robust immune system. My skin gets pretty dry from washing hands perpetually, but I've found the best lotions, keep them stocked. What will be, will be. | ||
| Sifo |
I would go with the 39% morbidity rate. Uh... no. Morbidity means sick, so that's 100%. If you mean Mortality, dying, that 39% is a percentage with little meaning. Until people stop becoming sick, and it's all over, THEN that percentage is meaningful. 39% is a really scary number, but you are measuring the number dead, against the number who had it and probably are over it. Which is a small percentage of the number who had & have it, which is the number you need to get the meaningful number you want. Yep, I used the wrong word. My point though, if you continue reading that paragraph, is that we don't have enough data at this point to arrive at anything close to a consensus on a mortality rate. If someone insists on calculating a mortality rate though, it simply makes no sense to use people who are still sick, and could still die, as part of that calculation. Still, I think we have enough data to make it clear that this is worse than just the flu. | ||
| Slaughter |
I'm more concerned about infections through the massive occurrence of dishpan hands caused by excessive hand-washing.  | ||
| Ratbuell |
What will be, will be. Pretty much. I have a daily vitamin regimen anyway, and wintertime I always have Airborne on hand. I also work with the public - day job, and my sound company - and if I wanted to freak out I could cancel all my gigs, lose a shit-ton of money, and maybe have the same probability of staying healthy as I will by still doing gigs, still making money, and still having a life. I still haven't seen enough convincing data that this is worse than a new flu, though. We're more focused on it because it's new...but again, how many people have died this year from "regular old flu"? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavi rus-flu.html I think this is the key statement here: But even a disease with a relatively low death rate can take a huge toll if enormous numbers of people catch it. Another important statement: Each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people, on average. But the figure is skewed by the fact that the epidemic was not managed well in the beginning, and infections soared in Wuhan and the surrounding province. Common sense management will likely help curb the spread. | ||
| Crusty |
Common sense is not common... | ||
| Ratbuell |
Neither is common courtesy...but those of us with both, stand a better chance of surviving this, and every other "existential crisis", that comes down the pipe. | ||
| Crusty |
Good Point. | ||
| Sifo |
But even a disease with a relatively low death rate can take a huge toll if enormous numbers of people catch it. That is one of the problems with this. It's a new virus. There is zero herd immunity, anywhere in the world. It's in the wild now, and impossible to stop. Assuming it is seasonal, similar to the flu, expect it to come back with a vengeance next flu season. A vaccine will not be ready by then without bypassing current safety regulations. That is also risky. Each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people, on average. But the figure is skewed by the fact that the epidemic was not managed well in the beginning, and infections soared in Wuhan and the surrounding province. There are also much higher estimates of the infection rates. Even at 2.2 though, you will get exponential growth. They just quarantined Italy! The problem is that they announced the quarantine BEFORE shutting down travel! People fled the quarantine area. FAIL! It's out in the wild and will not be stopped. Much is being made about how we don't know the real numbers of infected, because of people who get mild, or no symptoms. This is true. It also works against the estimates of it's infection rate of 2.2, or 6, or what ever rate you want to pick from. It's still an unknown that certainly has to be higher than any calculation based on known numbers. Those who don't get counted in the infected numbers still go out in public and spread the virus though. It's out there in a population with no immunity. It's going to spread. We've never stopped anything like this in the past when it gets to this point, and have no theoretical means of stopping it now. Exposure is fact. The only question is how fast exposure will travel. BTW, we missed our chance to quarantine China. The cat's out of the bag. | ||
| Sifo |
BTW, comparing it to the flu deaths at this point is pointless. There are more flu related deaths per year than we have confirmed cases of Covid-19. Covid-19 is just getting ramped up though. With no herd immunity, Covid-19 could easily hit over a billion people within the year. Even with the flu's mortality rate, that is pretty devastating. On the plus side for me though, as much as I don't like taking the hit in the stock market, I close on the old house on April 1st and will have a very nice chunk of cash to drop into the market. Great timing for me, unless the markets recover by then, which I wouldn't complain about either. | ||
| Pwnzor |
What can I, or any of us do? Wash our hands, be careful about touching our faces. Go about our daily business. Stay inside if you want, I guess. For my part, I'm a bit of a crazy hand-washer anyway... so there's that. | ||
| Sifo |
What can I, or any of us do? Probably not much. I've mentioned what I'm doing, which is just making sure I can be comfortable if they were to lock us down in a quarantine area for a while. I guess you could avoid large public gatherings, but we don't do much of that sort of thing anyway. If it's not been reported in your area, you are probably going to be hiding from nothing though. Once it's in your area, it's pretty hard to hide. | ||
| Etennuly |
I'm still stuck on the Swine flu "epidemic" from the era of President Ford. Media exposure was likely 10% of what it is today back when. They had the country terrified about it. If I recall I went with my dad to get our shots. Ha ha....just after the epidemic was gone! At the time I had mono. Everyone I knew shunned me thinking I had the Swine flu. Glad I didn't get "mad cow" disease.....or did i? I'd be the last to know. Sars was a good one. How we get all of the products that we do, including food stuffs from asia, without dying is just amazing to me. I've had sinus problems for decades. Mucus and lung butter frequent me every winter. I hate it. Vitamins and sunshine are my friend. Yesterday I did a very normal thing while pumping gas. I coughed, horked a luggie, and promptly launched it onto the ground. A lady at the gas pump across from me told me I should not be doing that. I was surprised she did not call the police! Yep! It is what it is. | ||
| Chauly |
Many of the public "no spitting" laws were a byproduct of the TB epidemics in years past. It was thought (maybe correctly?) that spittle may have contributed to passing it on... | ||
| Fresnobuell |
Not. Flu has a mortality rate of .1%, which is not "none". Corona virus does not have a mortality rate of 5%. It is somewhere between 1% and 3.5%. This will become lower as the virus is understood better and vaccines are developed. Notice how the media gives us just numbers without demographics? How many of the deaths were elderly with pre-existing conditions? Notice how the Southern Hemisphere is not having a problem? This will fade just like SARS, H1N1 as we enter warmer weather. This is media stirring the pot and FAKE NEWS at its best. | ||
| Fresnobuell |
You want to talk about a virus that deserves our attention--the filovirus family of viruses. The most recognized being the Ebola virus. 50% mortality rate with an awful death (liquifying your body from the inside out). | ||
| Hootowl |
Ebola is not highly contagious. Requires fluid contact, and cannot survive outside the body. | ||
| Fresnobuell |
Good point about the transmission of the Ebola virus. I guess the virus that spreads like the Corona virus and behaves like the Ebola virus would be kind movies are based on. My opinion is this Corona virus will be just like the other airborne viruses--it will flame out when the weather turns. It's the media that's stoking the flames and people who have been conditioned to react with panic and fear, like usual. | ||
| Sifo |
Corona virus does not have a mortality rate of 5%. It is somewhere between 1% and 3.5%. What do you base this on? We don't have near enough data to make such a claim. You want to talk about a virus that deserves our attention--the filovirus family of viruses. The most recognized being the Ebola virus. 50% mortality rate with an awful death (liquifying your body from the inside out). Ebola does not transmit as easily, and if you get it, you get very sick very quickly. Because of those 2 facts alone, it tends to stay local and burn itself out quickly. In contrast, Covid-19 spreads easily, and can be transmitted without having any symptoms. Pretty much the polar opposite of Ebola. As to the death rate for Covid-19, here's some know numbers... China 60,098 Recovered 3,136 Dead Italy 724 Recovered 631 Dead Iran 2,731 Recovered 291 Dead Korea 247 Recovered 54 Dead US 8 Recovered 28 Dead Those are just the world leaders in infection, plus the US. I'm not clear how you can ever get a sub 5% mortality rate from numbers like that. BTW, source for the numbers... https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.htm l#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 | ||
| Aesquire |
http://www.startribune.com/6-movies-about-pandemic s-to-watch-or-avoid-if-you-re-stuck-at-home/568665 012/ Andromeda Strain, The Satan Bug, and Outbreak. My picks for viewing with a cold. | ||
| Aesquire |
https://pjmedia.com/lifestyle/portland-has-come-up -with-brilliant-idea-to-stop-spread-of-coronavirus -in-the-houseless-community/ If/when Pooh's Breath hits the deliberately created homeless ghettos, it's going to be horrid. Like, call in the napalm, bad. | ||
| Sifo |
| ||
| Hootowl |
I’m coming down with a cold. I can feel the first twinges of the scratchy throat and runny nose, so I thought it would be a good idea to go get a coronavirus test. Fat chance. Kits are in short supply, and the labs that perform the test (your doctor just collects the sample) are swamped. Hospitals will not test you unless you’re presenting severe symptoms. This sort of confirms that the death rate per confirmed case may be wildly pessimistic. https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/ 10/814091024/you-have-a-fever-and-a-dry-cough-now- what | ||
| Sifo |
This sort of confirms that the death rate per confirmed case may be wildly pessimistic. That's the good side of not testing aggressively. Unfortunately, all it changes is a statistic. The bad side is that by not testing aggressively, you can't track the chain of infection and stop the chain. Unfortunately, that kills people. I'm not sure who's to blame at this point for not getting up to speed on testing right away like South Korea did. I know many will blame Trump. I really hope that the CDC wouldn't bend like that to any politician without screaming to the press. If the CDC were that good at what they do, then we would be aggressively testing. Clearly the CDC has plenty to be blamed for on this. Either for not screaming about political pressure, or for being blind sided. It's what I've come to expect from government bureaucracy. So the only thing I'm unsure of, did the Trump administration apply pressure to pretend it's not a crisis? I've heard nothing credible about that yet, and am confident if a credible rumor of that existed, it would blare on the news 24/7. | ||
| Aesquire |
Something you don't read about the CDC is how during the previous administration a growing part of their budget went to people doing Climate Crisis studies to feed the Media machine. Every buck spent paying a climate guy is one you don't spend on a medical guy, and bureaucracy makes it hard to impossible to get rid of what some consider the less useful personnel and offices. I have the greatest respect for the hard working folk at the CDC. I'm also aware of Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy. https://www.jerrypournelle.com/reports/jerryp/iron .html Left unchecked, eventually every civil service organization will fill with managers and push out everyone that actually does the work desired. It seldom reaches the logical conclusion, as ( for example, teachers in schools, or epidemiology experts at the CDC ) are necessary to accomplish anything. So the budget has to increase to feed the ever growing manager percentage. If you know how to beat the Iron Law, let me know. As to testing, this happens every time a new disease comes out. ( yearly flu from China and others ) There aren't ANY test kits, then they are few, and by next year, plenty in warehouses. We are in the ramp up stage, fairly early, so they are rationed. The rationing rules are changing, ( never fast enough ) and nobody is happy about that. This isn't a political thing ( although politicians exploit the anger ) it's just that reality takes time. When vaccine testing begins, there's a massive amount of regulations meant to protect the experimental subjects, some of which is important. Because you are going to take people, vaccinate them, wait until their immune system stabilizes, then expose them to a disease that can kill them. On purpose. We all want this to go faster than it will. Including me, since I'm in the "gonna die" age and risk group. | ||
| Gregtonn |
If the CDC were that good at what they do, then we would be aggressively testing. So you thinks it's good idea to force everyone, who may or may not have a virus which may or may not be deadly to them, into waiting rooms to be tested? Chicken Little Disease. If you hang around under an oak tree long enough you will get hit in the head with an acorn but it is unlikely to kill you. G | ||
| H0gwash |
Factcheck.org has an article "Democrats’ Misleading Coronavirus Claims" which includes a bit about the elimination of the Global Health Security Role of the National Security Council (NSC): ""The Trump administration did indeed eliminate a key position that would have been involved in pandemic response..." "...Just because Ziemer’s position was discontinued does not mean everyone who was part of the team was fired or that all of the functions of the directorate ceased. According to reporting by the Atlantic and the Washington Post, some team members were shifted to other groups, and others took over some of Ziemer’s duties. An NSC spokesman at the time said that the administration “remains committed to global health, global health security and biodefense, and will continue to address these issues with the same resolve under the new structure.” "But the lack of someone in the White House to coordinate the response to a widespread disease outbreak in the U.S. is something numerous experts and groups at the time had cautioned against." IMHO, Trump, a known germophobe, would not have wanted to be possibly exposed to Covid-19. He just never saw this coming. | ||
| H0gwash |
My partner is also in a high risk group for being 79, COPD and on oxygen, and he is following this closely. Mostly I have to use 60%+ hand sanitizer because I will probably be the one who imports the virus when I come in from outside the apartment. We won't call his doctor unless breathing becomes more difficult. This is basically the same behavior for flu prevention. (Message edited by h0gwash on March 11, 2020) | ||
| Ourdee |
You may want to set up a place to change out of clothes worn outside before committing to being inside. | ||
| 86129squids |
Or at least keep handy some big cans of Lysol type aerosol. The "keep your distance" adage is sensible. I won't be able to do that at work though. From the guy who brought us "'52 Vincent"... love me some Richard Thompson. |
