| Author | Message | ||
     86129squids |
Gotta love these guys... https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/ 08/812925775/photos-in-a-coronavirus-crisis-delive ry-workers-can-be-a-lifeline | ||
| Sifo |
101,587 Confirmed Dead 3,460 55,863 recovered. So most seem to do this math... Dead/Confirmed*100=Death Rate which gives about a 3.4% death rate world wide. There's a glaring problem with that though. Put aside for a moment that this is heavily weighted with the Chinese health care system that was hopelessly overwhelmed. The real problem is that the dead and recovered don't come close to the number of confirmed cases. That means that the vast majority of confirmed cases are still active, and yet to get into the recovered or dead category. It seems to me that the proper way to do this calculation is using the numbers from those who are no longer active, so that you get the numbers for a final outcome, i.e., Dead/(Recovered+Dead)*100=Death Rate. That comes out to about 5.8% death rate once it's had a chance to run it's course. While it's easy to dismiss this high of a death rate because of the numbers involved in a sub-par health care system that was overwhelmed, keep in mind that when the best health care systems are overwhelmed, the "care" will be about the same. This is why it's critical to try to slow down the infection rate, so that you can keep up with their care. It's pretty clear that with the lack of testing that has been done in the US, that the CDC has failed to do this. You can only slow it down if you can track the chain of infections. We've already lost track of the infection chain, so it becomes completely reactionary. If you still think this is comparable to the flu, you need to take another look at that 5.8% death rate. It may prove to be not that bad, or much worse. Only time will tell for certain. BTW here's the calculation for US infections as of me writing this.... 19 deaths/(8 recovered+19 dead)/100=70.4% death rate. I'm really not sure what to make of the US having such a high death rate at this point in time. Feel free to check my math. I'm more that willing to admit being prone to stupid mistakes on math. Not my strong suit! This all does leave my very much in the dark about what the real death rate is likely to be though. It sure doesn't seem comparable to the flu though. Thoughts? | ||
| Hughlysses |
Another factor that should be considered in determining the death rate for those who become infected: there may be many people who were infected, but who were never tested and diagnosed because they had no or mild symptoms. This would mean the death rate is much lower than the current numbers show (same number of people dead, but many more were actually infected). Besides the lousy medical system in China, this would also at least partially explain the difference in the death rate in China and S Korea as S Korea has been doing extensive testing to determine who’s actually infected. | ||
| Whisperstealth |
Even at a 1% death rate, 3,500,000 would die if the entire population of the USA were infected... | ||
| Ourdee |
There are approx. 2.7 million deaths per year in the US. One every 12 seconds. 3.5 is not much of a bump. | ||
| Ourdee |
| ||
| Sifo |
Another factor that should be considered in determining the death rate for those who become infected: there may be many people who were infected, but who were never tested and diagnosed because they had no or mild symptoms. This would mean the death rate is much lower than the current numbers show (same number of people dead, but many more were actually infected). Besides the lousy medical system in China, this would also at least partially explain the difference in the death rate in China and S Korea as S Korea has been doing extensive testing to determine who’s actually infected. Good point. I would be very surprised if the death rate is what I calculated. Simply a different methodology that seems ignored, but seems to be not used. Makes more sense to me than what I typically see. South Korea has been doing very aggressive testing. Might be some of the best data available. Where their data will probably differ from many other countries, including the US, is the rate of infection across the population. Aggressive testing allows for aggressive checks on the spread. That also keeps the health care system from getting overrun. That will certainly help with the morbidity rate. Even at a 1% death rate, 3,500,000 would die if the entire population of the USA were infected... Exactly! I've heard estimates of 70% of the population getting hit over the next 3 years. I don't think it's going to be burnt out in a single season. | ||
| Tpehak |
Another factor that should be considered in determining the death rate for those who become infected: there may be many people who were infected, but who were never tested and diagnosed because they had no or mild symptoms. This would mean the death rate is much lower than the current numbers show No, it means the dead rate is much higher because of there may be many people who were infected and died, but who were never tested and diagnosed. (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 08, 2020) | ||
| Needs_o2 |
"Each day, 11 teens die in crashes caused by texting and driving. 2.35 million people in the US are injured or disabled by car crashes every year. More than 330,000 of these crashes that cause severe injury are caused by texting and driving" How does anyone expect people to follow proper hygiene to prevent spread, when they can't even put their phones down to save lives. The virus is going run it's course in spite of what we do.  | ||
| Hootowl |
“there may be many people who were infected and died, but who were never tested and diagnosed.” The dead would not have had mild symptoms. | ||
| Sifo |
The virus is going run it's course in spite of what we do. That's pretty much as factual a statement as can be made about this virus right now. That doesn't mean you can't take basic precautions and do basic preparations though. Italy quarantines north in drastic bid to slow virus spread
If they do this in your area, preparation is the difference between surviving comfortably and being 100% at the mercy of others. It doesn't take that much to be comfortable for a month. It will be a long month if you are unprepared though. | ||
| Ourdee |
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/08/natio nal/7-eleven-yamanashi-coronavirus/#.XmW_zXJKjX6 "This marks the first case in Japan where the new coronavirus has caused meningitis, University of Yamanashi President Shinji Shimada said at a news conference on Saturday." | ||
| 86129squids |
I laughed so hard at that SNL clip that I'm hoarse, but my sinuses are clear. Had a good ride today. | ||
| Tpehak |
The dead would not have had mild symptoms. There are severe symptoms stayed unregistered. I personally do not go to doctor each time I have severe symptoms. | ||
| 86129squids |
| ||
| 86129squids |
| ||
| Pwnzor |
https://www.foxnews.com/media/doctor-coronavirus-w ashington-state | ||
| Sifo |
No doubt. If you don't feel like you need to be hospitalized, you probably don't need to be hospitalized. What they didn't touch on though, was the need to isolate yourself to keep from spreading it further. Hey Mathew, could you do us a favor and keep us up to date on the shipping business demand. It's a great indicator of supply chain. | ||
| Tpehak |
In Italy 1 out of 20 infected dies. Which is 5% dead rate. I thing statistics from Italy is the most accurate. | ||
| Court |
What is the basis for your belief? Facts? Stat? “Gut” Rumor Devine intervention. When I see folks like President Trump, Pelosi, DiBlasio and Cuomo telling me about infectious disease I, to be honest, tend to discount the information. I’m watching the market take a dump and lots of experts are eager to give me the reasons. Just curious as to what would make Italy report more accurately than other countries. I can think of some reasons but am eager to hear others. | ||
| 86129squids |
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/ 08/813501632/seattle-health-care-system-offers-dri ve-through-coronavirus-testing-for-workers | ||
| Pwnzor |
Does anybody have stats for how many young healthy people have died directly from the Corona virus without any other mitigating factors? | ||
| Gregtonn |
In Italy 1 out of 20 infected dies. That is a totally baseless statement. The only way to be certain of that would be to test the entire population for the virus. There could be millions infected who have no symptoms. G | ||
| Aesquire |
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/aga inst-the-coronavirus-panic-or-not.php Gregtonn is right. You need more data to do the math correctly. As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload. Furthermore, those calculating rates ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate. The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero. Since I have family over 80, I'm concerned, and I don't know the rate, yet for my age. High, sure, but what? | ||
| Tpehak |
That is a totally baseless statement. The only way to be certain of that would be to test the entire population for the virus. There could be millions infected who have no symptoms. G Of cause it means 1 out of 20 people who has symptoms and has been tested positive. The group of people who have no symptoms has different chances. All it means is if you have no symptoms it is not time to die. If you have symptoms but have not been tested, you have 2.5% chance to die. If you have symptoms and have been tested positive you have 5% chance to die. If you have symptoms and have been tested not positive you have 0.2% chance to die. (Message edited by TPEHAK on March 09, 2020) | ||
| Sifo |
Checking the numbers for Italy at the moment... Confirmed cases 9,172 Recovered 724 Dead 463 It looks like you are using the confirmed cases vs. dead to calculate your 5% death rate. Doing the same thing with the recovered gives you a 7.9% recovery rate. Make sense? Not to me. What happened to the other 88%? I still think it makes far more sense to look at the total number who have concluded their illness, one way or the other. That gives 39% dead and 61% recovered. Cool how that covers 100% of the total pool of people you are looking at. Of course, as it's been pointed out, that pool of people excludes infected who never got tested. Even if we knew that number, it's still not an exact thing. Deal with a large group of people over a couple of months, and you can expect a few to die from unrelated things too. If you are looking for the best easy answer though, I would go with the 39% morbidity rate. Doing that same math for exposures in the US gives a 73% morbidity rate though. I wouldn't want bet on either of those figures being accurate. I might guess that it's somewhat higher than the 2% number I've seen thrown around a lot. Perhaps 5% might be accurate. Not for any reasons discussed about Italy though. I see a headline that all of Italy is now quarantined. I'm pretty sure the horses are watching the barn door being closed from the field at this point. I hope most of you have made basic preparations for dealing with a possible quarantine. Just running out of TP midway through the quarantine would suck, especially if you are having typical flu-like symptoms. I hate sounding alarmist about this, but alarms are going off! I think quarantining an entire European country is an alarm! | ||
| Sifo |
One more point about surviving this thing. I understand that a notable percentage of survivors will have things like permanent scaring in their lungs, etc. I'm fairly convinced that comparing this to the flu is either dishonest or ignorant. Same goes for those saying it's the end of the world. | ||
| Ourdee |
| ||
| Aesquire |
https://pjmedia.com/trending/covid-19-number-blind ness-and-the-monolithic-legacy-media/ To properly calculate the mortality rate ( how many will die from a disease, by percentage, or # per million, or furlongs per fortnight ) you need the total number of infected, and the number who have died. And to get an accurate number, overall, you have to wait until a disease is well established with a long time as a stable killer of people, not during a time of rapidly changing numbers. so far we have Unknown divided by the dead = unknown. We can do a little better than that, but you have to pick your sources carefully. I would go with the 39% morbidity rate. Uh... no. Morbidity means sick, so that's 100%. If you mean Mortality, dying, that 39% is a percentage with little meaning. Until people stop becoming sick, and it's all over, THEN that percentage is meaningful. 39% is a really scary number, but you are measuring the number dead, against the number who had it and probably are over it. Which is a small percentage of the number who had & have it, which is the number you need to get the meaningful number you want. And nobody has that meaningful number yet, and will not for Quite some time. ( best case, by summer. Worst case, in a history book published decades from now. ) | ||
| Ourdee |
Those that die are from a group of people from days earlier. They would be divided by a wrong number. But you don't know what the real number of people were on that day because they weren't all tested. So it would be divided by a wrong number. But we don't know the total deaths to attribute to Pooh's Breath because they weren't tested or recorded. Yalp, wrong number again. In about 14 days I am going to Two's before the Pooh's Breath V/D gets on the Georgia BBQ. I cough all the time from my foundry days. So, don't be a skeered. I washed my hands and will wipe down the pump handles on the way while wearing disposable gloves and not touching my face or man parts. I take my temp. a few times a day, and monitor my SpO2 levels. |
