This storm is producing some very weird model runs.From Wunderground earlier tonight:
quote:
The 12Z Tuesday run of the European model introduced a new and very distressing possibility: Florence stalling just offshore of North Carolina near Wilmington for roughly a day, then moving southwestward along and just off the South Carolina coast on Saturday, and finally making landfall close to Savannah, Georgia, on Sunday—all while still a hurricane. This outlandish-seeming prospect gained support from the 18Z run of the GFS model. It painted a very similar picture, with a landfall a bit farther north, near Charleston, on Sunday. The 18Z track from the experimental GFS FV3 model is very similar to the GFS track.
...and the guy on the Weather Channel just confirmed this info.
(Message edited by Hughlysses on September 11, 2018)
Florence stalling just offshore of North Carolina near Wilmington for roughly a day, then moving southwestward
Pretty much what windy.com predicts. They're usually pretty good.
Currently at Ft Bragg NC. Anticipating similar conditions to Matthew 2 years ago. Rain, wind, power/water outtage for a few days. Kind of like a camping but at home.
Posted on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 - 09:33 am:
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The shift to the South puts the western Carolina's squarely in the heavy rain threat with a slow moving tropical system. While winds near 30-35 mph are possible that's not the threat, the rain & flooding is. This could still shift again so stay #wxaware. #ncwx #scwx #Florence
-- Brad Panovich, Chief Meteorologist at NBC Charlotte - 7:32 AM - 12 Sep 2018
Posted on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 - 12:52 pm:
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Fresh 12z spaghetti models from www.tropicaltidbits.com. The stall... bend... drift support is rising. Pretty tight cluster. Big question now is does she make a north landfall then drift... or miss north landfall... drift... then make a more southern landfall. Monster of a storm. Take very seriously! www.spaghettimodels.com / Mike's Weather Page APP
Posted on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 - 12:56 pm:
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Watch out, America! #HurricaneFlorence is so enormous, we could only capture her with a super wide-angle lens from the @Space_Station, 400 km directly above the eye. Get prepared on the East Coast, this is a no-kidding nightmare coming for you.
There's a TON of good storm-related info for North Carolina at this link: road conditions, evacuation routes, official news releases on Florence, etc., etc.
Posted on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 - 02:48 pm:
Price of BBQ may rise.
Brad. When I towed cars, the people that hit pot holes never tipped. Just saying. They did say stupid stuff while I was looking at that flat dough nut spare on the right front. Like,"That's exactly what the other tire did". Here's your sign. Or,"That's the tire you changed for me the other day". Ding, ding, ding! Me," You mean when I told you to go straight to the tire store?"
All the septic tanks will over flow. What is worse human poop or hog poop? When you see people wading in the flood water remember the poop.
Someone tell Crusty to hurry up and flee from the Phornication to come.
Posted on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 - 03:21 pm:
So... first, hurricane winds blow the manure ponds all over creation, and the already saturated lands flood, drowning all the livestock. Then, sometime next week, the sun comes out.
Posted on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 - 05:00 pm:
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Not something that you want to see. Hurricane #Florence has increased in size over the last 24 hours. The area of tropical storm force winds has increased from 57,000 sq miles to 86,000 sq miles. The region with hurricane force winds or greater encompasses roughly 9000 sq miles.
Posted on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 - 07:51 pm:
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5:00 pm Update Hurricane Florence: Slight Weakening But More Concerning Projected Path CTH - Sept. 12, 2018
The 5:00 pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows the massive storm has lost a little internal power but the forecast path is now considerably worse. The projections put Florence actually making near landfall and simultaneously shifting south, buzz-sawing both the North Carolina and South Carolina coast with hurricane winds.
The projected path is incredible - SEE HERE (hit "play" button at lower left of page). A hurricane paralleling the coastline, while retaining strength, is one of the most damaging outcomes possible. This also increases the storm surge potential with multiple tide cycles.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Posted on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 - 08:14 pm:
quote:
Duke Energy estimates 1-3 million power outages due to Hurricane Florence in the Carolinas - Massive outages, high winds and extreme flooding could push outage restoration for weeks - More than 20,000 personnel to attack restoration as soon as conditions allow
Sept. 12, 2018
CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Duke Energy meteorologists are estimating power outages in the Carolinas from approaching Hurricane Florence could be between 1-3 million customers.
"The magnitude of the storm is beyond what we have seen in years," said Howard Fowler, Duke Energy's incident commander. "With the storm expected to linger, power restoration work could take weeks instead of days."
More than 20,000 people are in place to restore power – the largest resource mobilization ever for Duke Energy. More than 8000 Carolinas-based workers are being joined by 1700 workers from Duke Energy Midwest and 1200 from Duke Energy Florida to respond to this storm. And with 9400 additional resources coming from other utilities to help.
"Despite our workforce, customers should continue to make plans for their homes and facilities," said Fowler. "It's important for people to know this is no ordinary storm and customers could be without power for a very long time – not days, but weeks."
