| Author | Message | ||
     Danger_dave |
Yamaha plans to make millions of electric scooters over the next 5 years. Large scale automotive manufacturing centres are pouring millions into pre-production of electrical components. (Google it) These are the obvious harbingers of major change on the way. You could only guess at the timetable, but like Rachel says on the Hair products advert - 'It won't happen overnight, but it will happen'. I've ridden 2 electric bikes now. Don't give me the blah on 'why I love my reciprocating pistons'. Not only will electrics be viable, some will be highly desirable. Some won't. But they will take a chunk out of the fossil fueled 2 wheel vehicle market. Sure there are still range issues, but look at the exponential way that has been improving and you don't have to project too blindly to see it being workable. They are certainly commutable now. (Like Honda started maybe.) So, some speculation. Eventually you'll pull in to a 'battery station' and swap powerpacks - no need to recharge on the road. Apparently China has lithium/inert battery production sewn up. One bike manufacturer told me 'there is no alternative but to deal with China for the fuel cells'. Does this mean that the middle east won't call the energy shots (unless the oil is needed to generate the electricity to power the vehicles). That's the down side. Power generation will need to increase manyfold to cover all the tankfulls that used to come from the pump. Will Electricity infrastructure be tested when a flood of industrial strength plugs enter the household? Then what about the carbon credits - why are we even talking about it. Or do we burn that much more coal instead of 95 octane? Interesting times. Anybody have any salient facts to support or debunk. | ||
| Fresnobuell |
People have been saying there are inherent efficiencies of scale when producing electricity in mass quantities. I'll buy that. Seems like the restraining factor are the battery packs. I liken it to solar power. When the price of the panels gets low enough to make it a practical source of energy, it's on, just like when they get the battery packs cheap/small enough for reasonably priced 2-wheelers. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
I know there are several alternative taxation regimens based upon number of miles driven vs. number of gallons of fuel purchased. The government believes that electric vehicles (or hybrids in greater numbers) are on the horizon. If the number of plug in vehicles increases, the number of personal electric home systems will increase. I believe that solar battery will be an option (store during the day, transfer to vehicle at night). I don't believe that the system can handle the work load as it currently exists. Generation will HAVE to increase to keep up with demand. There hasn't been a change in the conditions that created the rolling brownouts. As far as "are electric vehicles desirable/as desirable as IC powered vehicles", I would love an electric bike. As soon as the range, price, power equation is cracked, they will be mainstream. Fewer parts, less maintenance have great attraction. Bought Tron Legacy and have been watching it all week. Give me a Light Cycle! | ||
| Buellhusker |
How are the government's going to tax the electricity used for road use in order to fund the road construction and maintenance? And electric cars / motorcycles don't really run on electricity they really run on coal, natural gas, oil, atom power or in my neighborhood water power. | ||
| Danger_dave |
Where there's a Will there's a Lawyer. | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
For tax purposes, the CBO recommends installing mileage tracking devices in every vehicle: http://doctorbulldog.wordpress.com/2011/03/24/cbo- proposes-mileage-tax-would-require-installing-gove rnment-controlled-smart-metering-device-in-all-veh icles/ | ||
| Xl1200r |
Mileage trackers are expensive and a bit of an invasive. I know that in New York State, every vehicle you operate on the road gets inspected annually, and the mileage of said vehicle is recorded. Seems easy enough to get a "tax bill" each year when you get inspected. I can't say I'd mind it - you'd pay the same in road tax but I bet they'd make it income tax deductible. Maybe... An electric bike would get a lot of use from me. I have a very short commute to work - less than 2 miles. The hassle of getting out a bike, letting it warm up and then having to ride it easy means it's not worth, and as a result I don't ride to work at all anymore. With an electric, I can toss on some gear and just GO. I've given serious thought to one of those electric stand up scooters... | ||
| Mikej |
"Eventually you'll pull in to a 'battery station' and swap powerpacks - no need to recharge on the road. " First all the manufacturers will have to agree upon a standardized battery size and mounting format. Without a standardized format it will be impractical to have a battery station. Cost will be another big factor. Then there will be the EPA aspect here in the U.S. How and where to dispose of or recycle spent batteries which are past their service life. Harley will of course have to patent the sound of their electric trike. HummDeHummmDityDumbDumb. Are electric cars and bikes coming? Sure. Will there be problems? Sure. When? Don't know, sort of depends on many factors. For me, cost and practicality of functional use will be the deciding factors. | ||
| Sifo |
"Eventually you'll pull in to a 'battery station' and swap powerpacks - no need to recharge on the road. " Sounds nice, but vehicles just aren't built to the same standards. There's no way a battery from a motorcycle is going to swap with a Chevy Volt. Getting a Volt and a Leaf to have a common battery would be close to impossible until the government steps in and puts a stop to battery innovation. We do want battery technology to advance, don't we? That will be impossible when we have a universal battery. Or do you expect that the Swap-O-Rama will stock every type of battery made? Then you get into how many batteries will a Swap-O-Rama station swap out in a day? If it's 1% of the current number of the people gassing up at gas stations on the expressway I don't think you could keep inventory charged up and ready to go. In the same size lot how many batteries per hour could a Swap-O-Rama change out, store, and charge? How many tanks of gas can that same size lot fill in that same hour? I don't think it will be self service because you will need some sort of fork lift. That will add a lot of labor too. This sounds like a very expensive venture compared to a how a current gas station operates where you probably fill hundreds of tanks per hour with very little labor cost. People have been saying there are inherent efficiencies of scale when producing electricity in mass quantities. That is true in most cases and will have some effect on electrics if they become mainstream. It fails miserably when you have limited supply of raw materials like the rare earth magnets that are required by high efficiency electric motors. To make it even worse almost the entire supply of these rare earth materials come from a single source (China). I would really like to see the business plan on all of this before getting to invested in going down that road. | ||
| Davegess |
I suspect that you could get a very significant portion of the electricity you need for your work commute by covering your current roof with solar panels. Not everyone certainly but a lot of people could. Doubt this would happen over night but it is coming. Electrical generation will have to rise which will mean some tough choice on new plants; where to put them and what to sue for power. No one wants a power pack in there back yard BUT some of us will need them their so that all of us can have power. In our current political climate it is going to be very tough to build new plants of any sort in the US. Here in Wisconsin we have made it harder to site wind farms. I see this happening with any sort of power plant. They will get sited based on who has the political muscle to force them on someone else. | ||
| Sayitaintso |
Tom , I agree, the swap-o-rama idea just isn't practical. Technology advances too quickly for anything like that to keep up and still be economically viable. As for the rare earth materials and China concerns.... I can see someone somewhere in the rest of the world innovating/engineering their way out of that problem in the not too distant future. There's too much money being thrown in that direction to not be looking for and finding alternatives. | ||
| Sifo |
As for the rare earth materials and China concerns.... I can see someone somewhere in the rest of the world innovating/engineering their way out of that problem in the not too distant future. There's too much money being thrown in that direction to not be looking for and finding alternatives. I would be curious what makes you think there's an engineering solution to the lack of raw materials. Petroleum was embraced as an energy source when it was seen as plentiful (it still is very plentiful BTW) and we have grown to where we have concerns about the world supply (and I'm glad we are looking at that issue too). We are looking at replacing a large portion of that technology with a technology that is reliant on raw materials that are scarce going in (that's why they call them rare earth magnets). Sure you can make an electric motor work with other magnets, but your efficiency goes right in the toilet and it's the efficiency that is already limiting acceptance. There's all kinds of solutions that could be made to work if you have the right raw materials available at a low cost. When faced with the realities of short supplies of these raw materials you may have to rethink these "solutions". Keep in mind these materials are also required as part of the wind turbine solution that is being pushed too, not to mention all sorts of new consumer devices like anything with a computer disk drive, ear buds for your I-pod, etc. Then you get guys like me that just like to have these magnets in the soles of my riding boots so I can change traffic lights! | ||
| Sayitaintso |
I guess my point is that just as you noted..the raw materials are rare. Its not logical/practicle to build for the future based on something thats scarce (regardless that China is the major source). An alternative will need to be found or this "future" technology is a dead end. I guess off the top of my head rubber is a good enough example. Until synthetic rubber was "discovered" there were problems with basing the future on products dependent on rubber...it couldn't be produced fast enough or in sufficient quantities for the demand. Prices rose and alternatives were found. I think the same (or similar b/c natural rubber is a renewable resource where rare earth materials are finite) will happen again, prices will rise and alternatives will be found. | ||
| Sifo |
Good example with rubber. I agree with what you say, but it's still a big IF we find a substitute. It worries me that the government is picking this as a winner before we have the technology available. Has anyone heard of anyone even working on substitutes for rare earth magnets? While I haven't heard of it, I haven't really searched it out either. | ||
| Reepicheep |
I'd love an electric bike if it could solve a problem I have in a cost effective way. An "electric KLR-250" with a 75 mile range that will charge over night for $5000? Tell me where to send the check! | ||
| 86129squids |
There was a very interesting story in the news not too long ago about some scientists who are working on an artificial form of photosynthesis- supposedly 10 times more efficient than normal plant photosynthesis... My commutes around town could very easily be done with an electric vehicle- now, AFAIK, my beloved day trips out on 2 wheels in the mountains could not... Been kinda interested in going to a Best Buy to look at those Brammo's... | ||
| Sifo |
My commutes around town could very easily be done with an electric vehicle- now, AFAIK, my beloved day trips out on 2 wheels in the mountains could not... And there's the problem. Not very many people really can take on the expense of an additional vehicle(s) for occasional use. While a given vehicle might work for 95% of our driving, we usually opt for a vehicle that works for 100% of our driving. | ||
| Hootowl |
The US has lots of rare earth minerals. Rare earth doesn't mean they're rare, it means that they're not in concentrated deposits of ore. China is the major supplier because they do it cheaper than the rest of the world, and no one sues their companies for operating a mine like they do in the US. China is not the major source, it’s just that they're the only ones mining right now. There is a US company that is starting to mine again, because they've figured out a way to extract a greater volume of minerals from a given quantity of ore for less money and with fewer waste products. They'll be competitive up until the Chinese steal their process and put them out of business. | ||
| Macbuell |
I cannot see any tax system based on number of miles driven ever being passed. The outrage among the voter public would be through the roof. It just won't happen. | ||
| Jlnance |
Has anyone heard of anyone even working on substitutes for rare earth magnets? While I haven't heard of it, I haven't really searched it out either. Rare earth magnets are desirable because you can use them to create very strong permanent magnets. These are useful in creating electric motors. Not all electric motors require magnets. Switched reluctance motors, for example, do not, and would be a good fit for this application. People use permanent magnet motors because they are the cheapest way to get the necessary performance. If the price of the magnets rises, there are certainly alternatives. | ||
| Sifo |
The US has lots of rare earth minerals. Rare earth doesn't mean they're rare, it means that they're not in concentrated deposits of ore. China is the major supplier because they do it cheaper than the rest of the world, and no one sues their companies for operating a mine like they do in the US. China is not the major source, it’s just that they're the only ones mining right now. There is a US company that is starting to mine again, because they've figured out a way to extract a greater volume of minerals from a given quantity of ore for less money and with fewer waste products. They'll be competitive up until the Chinese steal their process and put them out of business. We have plenty of oil & coal too. We have simply become reluctant to drill/mine for it. I really don't see that we are going to suddenly change this for rare earth elements on a large scale. Not all electric motors require magnets. Switched reluctance motors, for example, do not, and would be a good fit for this application. So what's the down side (other than expense) of this sort of motor? Can the achieve the equivalent efficiencies? Even if it's just the expense, that's one more hurdle for electrics. | ||
| Two_seasons |
Macbuell: I wish I could agree with you. In Wisconsin, Milwaukee and Madison counties oft times control the election outcomes. Who resides there...bus riding poor and students. Both could care less what happens to those paying their freight. And, in Wisconsin, we ask not who you are when you check-in at the polling places. No ID req'd! As well as a hefty increase in absentee ballots the last several years. Fed and state gov't coffers are suffering as more and more of us drive motorcycles, smart/electric/hybrids/scooters to and fro. They can't produce enough ethanol to kill our mileage nationwide, so they want to increase to 15% the amount in the current ethanol pumps, further killing your mileage ergo, you're at the pump more often. Not to mention all that sales tax paid for the repairs to your car/motorcycle/boat/small engine businesses. Isn't it a joy that we've given our states rights over to our Big Brother in DC? | ||
| Sayitaintso |
Dave....good topic, Thanks This topic started with scooters....think about 10 zillion college students running around on electric scooters rahter than what they are using now. I think it will work. Already I see more and more kids running around on scooters around FSU and Tallahassee. If given the choice between gas and electric I'd bet most would pick electric as long as there isn't too much price disparity between the two. (Message edited by sayitaintso on April 19, 2011) | ||
| Iamike |
I have read where they are close to developing quick-charge batteries where electric vehicles could be charged in a mater of a few minutes instead of hours. My Coby Android does it now. Here is a link on new leaf technology where they are close to photsynthesis. http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/37310/page1 / | ||
| Blake |
Dave G. >>> I suspect that you could get a very significant portion of the electricity you need for your work commute by covering your current roof with solar panels. I think if you look at the numbers you'll be disappointed. Photo-Voltaic cells are dismally inefficient; even the best in production now are only around 20% efficient. That means that instead of 1.2 KW/m2 of incident Summertime solar radiation, we convert just 200W/m2 into electricity. If the round trip is 30 miles , that will require at least 10KWH of battery charged electricity. During a 9 hour sunny Summer day at work at an average of 800W/m2 incident solar radiation, you'd still need 10KWH/(9H*0.20*0.8KW/m2) = 6.94m2 of solar cells. That's not too bad. You might get 2m2 of panels on the roof; add the hood and trunk, maybe 4m2. So for a sunny Summer day, it might make sense. But there is a catch. Try the calculation for a snowy Wisconsin Winter day.  The encouraging news is that folks are working very diligently to invent new much more efficient solar cells. I sure hope they get it done sooner rather than later. It will be a total game changer for the world. | ||
| Sayitaintso |
Blake, I read his post as meaning the roof of his house, not vehicle. | ||
| Blake |
I really think that most commuter type vehicles will be hybrids within ten years. They just make too much sense. 50 MPG in the city is amazing. Every time I have to hit the brakes I always think of all the energy being wasted. Give me an affordable hybrid please. Even a mechanical flywheel system instead of the complex and expensive battery powered hybrid. What is so difficult about two counter-rotating flywheels, or an air compressor, or springs to store braking energy then dump it back into the power train during launch? There must be something I'm missing. | ||
| Scottorious |
I like those ideas...is there an article or something I could read about the flywheel idea? Or did you just think of that. That seems like a pretty decent idea. First thought that comes to mind is the brake pedal would also be a clutch of sorts that engages the flywheel and then on acceleration you have an electronically controlled clutch that engages the flywheel to the rest of the drive train. I would like to read more about alternative hybrid ideas...anybody got a good article. | ||
| Sayitaintso |
If there is something you're missing i'm missing it too. I read a few years ago that Ford had a hydraulic system to capture breaking energy and then using the stored energy for acceleration back up to speed for light trucks (F150). So many possibilities...so few options in the market. Here is a quick link I found that has more recent stuff than I'd read before. Ford Hydraulic F-150 | ||
| Ft_bstrd |
Never underestimate the ability for the Federal government to invent new and creative ways to collect taxes. If you aren't buying gasoline, you aren't paying Federal gas tax. That tax revenue must come from somewhere. You don't hear any outrage about the gas tax do you? |
