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Court
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 09:35 am: | 
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>>>Sales figures in Europe don't say so
You are misreading my views.
I think the XR1200 is a neat bike. It's about the only Harley-Davidson I would buy.
From a BUSINESS (the very thing that currently has Harley's tit in the wringer) it's a disaster.
It cost 7 times the budget to engineer and produce. It took, as you may recall, two years after the "we're almost ready to introduce it now . . really, we're almost ready" announcements to bring it to market as about a hundred folks struggled to work out a transmission glitch.
To get a true sense . . get a hold of HD Europe and ask them how many they have REALLY sold (I know the number) and then, as a businessman, see if you think it's a deal you'd buy into.
I think it's a neat Harley.
I know it's been one of the several things that has brought HD to it's corporate knees. Several of the folks who were with the XR program have been "released".
If it had cost $17M more it would have surpasses the Street Rod in terms of business disasters.
I'd buy an XR1200. In fact, I love the one you'd done. But unless 59,000 folks join me this year the XR program will never come out from under water.
I'm not dissing the XR program but rather the •••••• program management HD employed that doomed the bike before it was 60% complete.
This concludes my discussion of the XR. My point is that Harley-Davidson's problems have their roots at Juneau, not East Troy. |
Arcticktm
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 12:46 pm: |
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The insider snootiness thing can get old after a while, guys... |
Pammy
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 01:33 pm: |
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"I have yet to talk with an engineer, a designer or a manager from HD that said, "yes, we built the XXX to lose money." "
Well, I don't know everyone at HDMoCo, but I would say that doing something intentionally to LOSE money is a no no. Sometimes it just happens...We have all been there.
Harley Davidson borrowed money from Warren Buffet. AT 15% INTEREST!
HOG managed to make a little over 15% on its assets during boom years (2003-2007), but ROA has dropped to less than 10% at the end of 2008. 2009 will be another challenging year for the company. On January 23, 2009, the company announced that it saw for 2009 a reduction of 10-13% in motorcycle shipment and a shrinkage of gross margin to 30.5-31.5% from 34.5% in 2008. If the company couldn’t make more 15% on its assets (borrowed fund or equity), what is there left for share holders after paying the 15% in interest?
Do you know the guys whose brilliant idea this was? I imagine it's the same guys doing the trimming.
P.S.
"So far nobody that I know at HD, and I know alot of people,"
So....these friends of yours tell you that Buell was on the chopping block? 
(Message edited by pammy on October 29, 2009) |
Court
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 01:50 pm: |
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Follow the money.
Look at the history of Harley-Davidson Financial Services.
Long history of making money.
John Olin shows up from Kraft Foods.
Take it from there.
His losses in the last quarter were nearly 4 times what they were the prior quarter.
He . . . to borrow a familiar addage . . is a true "looser".
That entire department, after his predecessor hastily left "to pursue other interests" is not the shining star of corporate America.
Try taking out the HDFS losses and about $100,000,000 lost on a couple programs and recasting HD statements.
Interesting to see how they recover. |
Steve_mackay
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 02:08 pm: |
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So....these friends of yours tell you that Buell was on the chopping block
Rumors were floating around all summer of this. When you rub elbows, have family, and work with HD & Buell engineers, you tend to catch things you shouldn't.
I totally dismissed the Buell on the chop block rumors. Based on the sheer amount of time and $$ that was being spent on the 2011 Barracuda II. I didn't think the mother ship would let them spend that amount of effort and cash, while there was a chance they were going to be shut down. |
Rpm4x4
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 02:14 pm: |
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2011 Barracuda II |
Pammy
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 02:15 pm: |
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Hey Court, do you have any Buell Racing hats? |
Steve_mackay
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 02:23 pm: |
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Michael see this post:
http://www.badweatherbikers.com/cgibin/discus/show .cgi?4062/508573 |
Rpm4x4
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 02:31 pm: |
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Thanks Steve. I dont know how I missed that post. |
Xl1200r
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 02:37 pm: |
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The Street Rod was a performer? News to me.
Sometimes when I'm in the dealership, I tell the sales people how'd like to put clip-ons and rearsets on a road king just to see what it'd be like.
The street rod wasn't too far off from that idea. |
Dennis_c
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 03:14 pm: |
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1130 |
Madduck
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 03:50 pm: |
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Pammy,
If court coesn't have them I do have a couple extra in tan that I was saving for a friend. |
Ferris_von_bueller
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 04:48 pm: |
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Damnm Court, you're painting a bleak picture of HD. What in the hell is going on over at HQ. I can't believe it took that much money and time to develop the XR1200. It's not exactly a ground breaking motorcycle. Sounds to me like there are groups of people more worried about their own little corner of the castle than building motorcycles. Talk about a lost company. |
Pammy
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 04:55 pm: |
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Thanks Paul. I was inquiring for a friend. I will tell him. You are a dear. |
Madduck
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 05:08 pm: |
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As much as Harley management may have made bad decisions, their future is tied up in convincing people such as Geithner that their proposals have merit. He claims to have been confused by his "turbotax" program when failing to report his foreign income. How would any of us like to have our future being decided by his ilk. |
Court
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 05:28 pm: |
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Pammy I don't have any of the Buell Racing hats but saw some at Liberty HD/Buell when I was there the other day. You might check their website.
Paul . . . you've nailed it on the hands the future is in. Scan the list of the current crop of HD executives and board members. Scary, eh?
Some of the crew ousted last year when Wilke and crew left may have has their shortcomings but at least they had been in and around the motorcycle business.
All of a sudden I'm wondering where Clyde Fessler is when we need him. . . Nah . . we're not quite there yet.
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Chellem
| | Posted on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - 06:27 pm: |
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I looked around and I couldn't find any.
I will accost my motorclothes folks when I get back and make sure.
->ChelleM |
Blake
| | Posted on Friday, October 30, 2009 - 12:31 am: |
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"Scan the list of the current crop of HD executives and board members. Scary, eh?"
The lady from the Mom's club who also serves on the Macy's board must be a perfect fit.
http://investor.harley-davidson.com/downloads/CG_B oardList.pdf |
Hex
| | Posted on Friday, October 30, 2009 - 12:41 am: |
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 Sorry, that list made me sick. So much for the future of inspirational innovators. I don't see one idol there. |
Madduck
| | Posted on Friday, October 30, 2009 - 02:53 am: |
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Court,
You want a really scary moment, scan the board of directors of Mayo Clinic or the Cleveland Clinic. Those two institutions have survived on less than Harley has to work with and the process they affect is life and death. Harley only suffers from the fact that it used to be run by motorcyclists. People who coined the phrase " Ride to Live, Live to Ride". Sentiments like that take on more meaning today. Whenever I hear a loud Harley engine fire up I remember 50 of us gearing up in 35 degree weather/raining to ride 100 miles just to be a presence at Roger Riemans visitation. His dad and SO Rose couldn't have been happier to hear that rumble coming to the Funeral home. We've lost a lot of the spirit that used to mark bikers, it still hurts to think that the special Buell spirit may be going away too.
Lately I am feeling much older, the generation of riders coming out of the stunting ranks were begining to understand the wonder that is a Buell. Too late but maybe they will get to experience the joy of riding a "cult bike". |
Cyclonedon
| | Posted on Friday, October 30, 2009 - 03:57 am: |
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The lady from the Mom's club who also serves on the Macy's board must be a perfect fit.
she is only part of the problem, none of those people actually ride motorcycles or really care about the riders themselves.
the year is 2009 and Harley is in desperate need of a makeover! They need to change the entire board of directors before it's too late. |
Rocketman
| | Posted on Friday, October 30, 2009 - 07:38 am: |
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I would have assumed, no matter who sits on the board, these people have a small army of helpers feeding them information of all aspects of the corporations performance, no? So who really is to blame, if anyone.
Isn't this a long running event, the consequence of a major global downturn we've not seen the likes of since the 1920's? The world is in the shit and not just HD. HD's problem are who wants their motorcycles when the majority of them are sold on finance to people who can't afford them outright at time of purchase. These same people are just like most everyone else. Struggling to hold a job down, struggling to pay the mortgage, struggling to make ends meet, unless they themselves make cutbacks. A Harley Davidson motorcycle is not a priority on most of these peoples agenda during such times I'd wager. Result, sales take a dive.
Then of course there are those that HD have hocked up to their eyeballs pre-recession, and sold thousands and thousands of bikes to, most on finance packages. Where's that finance come from? HD's own finance houses, who in turn rely upon global economies to make their investments work. And just like many other banking organisations, they're the ones in deep shit, and that's where the money's gone. Up in smoke so to speak. So who is really benefiting from what little profits are thrown around, and that would be the fat cats licking off what's left of the cream.
The question is, are Harley Davidson a motorcycle manufacturing company, or are they a motorcycle manufacturer turned into nothing more than a commodity the only purpose of which is to make money. HD's problem has been around for a long time, and it's had little to do with building motorcycles except for the purpose of selling them. If such is true, one only needs look at the target market. Harley only build expensive large capacity bikes in a relative financial comparative. The sort of bikes that bring in big numbers and not lots of small ones like say scooter sales do.
Why would Buell put all their eggs in Harleys basket one has to wonder. It makes me wonder where the mistake, there was only really ever one - a big one at that, was made, and in that I'd say Buell should never have pitched in with Harley without a protection to maintain the products survival or escape route in times of trouble. As it stands now it's pure speculation whether Buell will survive to live again. The blame for that is not recent but years old. Fat cat directors or not. Someone forget to protect the passion.
Of course, this is the world through my eyes and I'm sure contains inaccuracies and misguided ramblings, but one thing is certain. Buell will be lucky to get out alive, but if they do maybe now we'll get the killer hand built exotics Buells once were and should always have been.
Rocket |
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