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Buell Forum » Quick Board » Archives » Archive through October 28, 2009 » Analysis: Buell would thrive without the recession. « Previous Next »

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Tramp
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 08:32 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

By logical examination-

In a recession that's cost so many their jobs, homes and businesses, an American sportbike company wouldn't be likely to thrive in the face of foreign competition amidst a weakening USD.

By even the most conservative cost benefit analysis, maintaining a marginal, clique line presents too expensive a luxury.

This was no knee-jerk reaction; discussion of jettisoning the Buell brand has been ongoing for many months now.

Were it NOT for this recession, Harley would be able to keep Buell and continue to develop later flagship models like the Uly.

When things level out, perhaps the brand will become available to the highest bidder.
Let's just hope that another CMC-Indian debacle doesn't occur.
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Tramp
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 08:44 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Despite our histrionic fantasies, Erik, Keith, etc., are businessmen, and business has been bad.

It's time we all roll up the tents and sleeping bags bivvied outside the factory and go the hell home to contemplate how we, the Buell-enthusiast community, can better provide suport for one another.

Any letters/please you pen and send re really only giving you a warm & fuzzy feeling that masks the core issue.

No one at the company is going to seriously consider these peevish letters to Santa.

The decision has been made (some time ago, really), and now we all need to accept it and move on.

There is no Emerald City or North Pole workshop- HD is a business that's feeling the pinch that we all are.

Our collective energies are better employed in supporting one another in finding parts, service and folks with whom to ride.

Let's each of us (I am serious about this) get a friend to register on Badweb;
Let's each reach out to, say, a foreign Bueller (just peruse the Facebook "Buel" group, there are tens of thousands of foreign Buell enthusiasts in need of more centralized support), and get at least that one overseas Bueller to register at Badweb.

From this aspect we can make a positive impact that will show any potential , future bidder on the marque that we are an active and growing customer base.
We can also serve as a wider conduit to Badweb's sponsors and members.
This is how we can make a real difference.

Let's all start today, by getting at least 1 new Bueller registered here.
Start by joining a facebook Buell group, and then posting there about Badweb, and what a brilliant resource it continues to be.
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Ferris_von_bueller
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 08:47 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I don't throw logic and reasoning out with the window just because I'm a Buell enthusiast but where do you get the facts to backup your conclusions? As best I can tell, no one has been able to conclusively say Buell has made money or lost money.
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Tramp
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 08:50 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

You're right, I'm wrong.
There IS a North Pole workshop and an emerald City.

Some folks can be counted on to argue the poster,and not the point.
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Ferris_von_bueller
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 08:56 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

It's time we all roll up the tents and sleeping bags bivvied outside the factory and go the hell home to contemplate how we, the Buell-enthusiast community, can better provide suport for one another.

The body isn't even cold and you want to deny some the grieving process. While I agree there is little to nothing us average Buell owners can do to save Buell , I do believe showing support means a lot to Erik and the gang. It would to me. None of us, save a few, really know what and why behind the closing of Buell. As far as we know, Mr. Buell might want to retire to some tropical island. It's all mere speculation. While I understand and hear what you're saying, I'm not ready to jettison hope, just yet.
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Ferris_von_bueller
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 08:59 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I'm not arguing with YOU. YOU made statements based on certain assumptions. One being, that Buell has lost money. In the interest of discussion, I merely asked for the facts. As I said, I have yet to see that fact.
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Zac4mac
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 08:59 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Brilliant, Tramp

I can't wait for the next chapter in the Saga of Buell.

Z
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Ferris_von_bueller
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 09:03 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

In a recession that's cost so many their jobs, homes and businesses, an American sportbike company wouldn't be likely to thrive in the face of foreign competition amidst a weakening USD.

Furthermore, by logical extension, your premise could be applied to HD. With their Lexus priced motorcycles the average rider can no longer afford them and are looking at foreign cruisers. I've had people tell me as much during discussions about Buell's closing.
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Buellinachinashop
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 09:04 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Court said they'd be a thriving, healthy company without Harley buying them, I can't see how they'd have done worse with a good economy.
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Tramp
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 09:14 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

"Furthermore, by logical extension, your premise could be applied to HD. With their Lexus priced motorcycles the average rider can no longer afford them and are looking at foreign cruisers. I've had people tell me as much during discussions about Buell's closing."
*
*
*
Absolutely agreed, 110%:
...hence THAT flailing corporation's need to shed the slower-moving (er...in SALES, that is, certainly not in MPH
) division(s).

Viewing the whole, HD's shedding of Buell is as much about HD's fiscal woes as it is Buell's.

Buell's been the weakest sales performer at HD, so it goes first.

HD is unlikely to be in great shape, right now.

(Message edited by tramp on October 22, 2009)
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Buellinachinashop
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 09:23 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

"Buell's been the weakest sales performer at HD, so it goes first"

Thier softlines have been their weakest performer for 2009, but yet they still sell t-shirts at 30.00 a pop.

Dealers have run discounts on parts and accessories from time to time, but the Mothershit still tryes to bilk out $75.00 for leather doo-rags.
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Rkc00
Posted on Thursday, October 22, 2009 - 09:24 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

+1 Tramp
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Tramp
Posted on Friday, October 23, 2009 - 03:39 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I thank yew!
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Rkc00
Posted on Friday, October 23, 2009 - 04:04 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Tramp,
Are you riding on Saturday? I need to be in Geneseo by noon on Sunday. I might try and hit the ride for Saturday and hang around for Saturday night. I will then travel to Geneseo on Sunday morning. Hope I get to see you.

Mike
09 XB12X Red/Black
09 1125CR Black
06 VRSCR Blue/Silver
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Doerman
Posted on Friday, October 23, 2009 - 04:14 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Buell's been the weakest sales performer at HD, so it goes first.

That is actually not correct
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Tramp
Posted on Friday, October 23, 2009 - 04:19 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Rkc00:
I won't be able to make Saturday's run. I just found out, which pisses me off. I'll certainly attend the after-run dinner at Das Hammerhaus....being as my better half is helping Mrs. Hammer with chow.

We'll catch up at Dinner, that would be nice.

Doerman:
Thank you for the correction. What brand-name has been HD's weakest sales performer, then?
I only know of 3 or 4 brands under HD, but I am occasionally mistaken, so help a brother out
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Hippo888
Posted on Saturday, October 24, 2009 - 12:07 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

By logical examination-

In a recession that's cost so many their jobs, homes and businesses, an American sportbike company wouldn't be likely to thrive in the face of foreign competition amidst a weakening USD.


A weaker US$ would IMPROVE Buell sales against foreign bikes as it makes Buell cheaper compared to foriegn bikes.

By even the most conservative cost benefit analysis, maintaining a marginal, clique line presents too expensive a luxury.

Buell sales are comparable to the small European brands who seem ok. In addition, Buell served as a great test-bed for HOG technology, like the unit-construction Sportster line. My guess is that the entire Buell operation didn't cost much more than HOG would've spent developing the XB/Sportster engine themselves.

This was no knee-jerk reaction; discussion of jettisoning the Buell brand has been ongoing for many months now.

Seems knee-jerk to me. They didn't even bother to let their Japanese distributor know they were pulling the plug and to not display at the Tokyo show.

Were it NOT for this recession, Harley would be able to keep Buell and continue to develop later flagship models like the Uly.

HOG needs cash right now. Their financial division is killing them, literally. Cash spent on Buell, whether profitable or not, now needs to be spent keeping the MoCo alive (HOG is already suckling off the same bailout fund that's keeping GM and Chrysler alive).

When things level out, perhaps the brand will become available to the highest bidder.
Let's just hope that another CMC-Indian debacle doesn't occur.


Buell technology is too intertwined with MoCo technology to separate cleanly. By the time this is over, the Japanese sportbikes will have gone through another 2-3 generational redesigns. The Rotax engine will be no longer be competitive.

What killed Buell is that HD Financial Services wrote too many "subprime" loans during the go-go bubble years. Now, HOG is fighting for financial survival and the execs are desperate. They've decided that the money spent on Buell (profitable or not) now needs to be utilized to plug the hole that the finance division blew through the side of the company.

In my opinion, Buell built one of the only sportbikes with soul. They sold in sufficient numbers that the MoCo should have been able to at least break even on them (no need for separate dealer network, computer system, support facilities, etc.) if not make a slight profit. Buell was killed because of a massive mistake at HD Financial Sevices, not due to any fault of the bikes.
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Tramp
Posted on Saturday, October 24, 2009 - 12:53 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Nice try, but no cookie.
Your final summation actually agrees with what I posted.
nowhere did I state that the fault lie in the motorcycles.
The truest element of your post:
"In my opinion, Buell built one of the only sportbikes with soul."...with which I agree to some extent, states your actual emotional
response, one which, unfortunately, shortcuts reason and logic.
The "massive mistake at HD financial se(r)vices" was/is emblematic of the credit-frenzy that took down many corporations and individuals in the past year....and which, ultimately caused the present recession.
warm thanks for bolstering my point.
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Chellem
Posted on Saturday, October 24, 2009 - 01:26 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I've heard in several posts that HOG is taking bailout money a-la GM and Chrysler. Can someone post a link to that? I can't find anything about internally, and I can't find any real facts via google.

I know that the Credit division was trying to get in on the same sort of "bailout" that all the banks that are suffering a high default (repo) rate, but not the actual Motor Company. Granted that would help the overall motor company, but it's not really the same thing as having H-D motor company federally bailed-out.

Unless I'm reading the report wrong, while profits are down, they still exist. Profits. My understanding is that GM and Chrysler can't say the same thing.

Anything?
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Hippo888
Posted on Saturday, October 24, 2009 - 02:04 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Nice try, but no cookie.
Your final summation actually agrees with what I posted.


I don't think I was arguing with you -- more like clarifying the mechanism which caused the unfortunate shutdown of Buell.

Harley's US$700M at 1-1/2% interest is from one of the gov't bailout funds, I think it's TALF, but I'm not sure -- there are so many now I get them mixed up. Buell's previous dip into the credit markets was US$600M at 15%. That was unsustainable, hence they went to the federal gov't. No one is loaning money at 1-1/2% to anyone - except the gov't.

I saw someone posted no-interest/no-payment loans for Sporties and Softails elsewhere. I hope they have higher loan standards on this pile of loans than the last time, but hey, it's only taxpayer money.

http://business.cch.com/securitiesLaw/news/07-07-0 9b.asp

EDIT: TALF loan was to HDFS, not the MoCo. But given how close captive-finance arms are to the parent companies, this is not a good sign. Without cheap money to loan to customers, the MoCo doesn't sell any bikes. Now they're being given (nearly) free money with no strings attached since the taxpayer picks up any losses.

(Message edited by hippo888 on October 24, 2009)
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Tramp
Posted on Saturday, October 24, 2009 - 02:28 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Well-said, Hippo- Thanks, well-clarified.
The decision wasn't knee-jerk at all, though it feels that way to we lay-folk who don't work there.
Why would they share their imminent-jettison info w/their japanese suppliers 'til the last moment. I can't blame them on this- esp. considerin they were hoping for federal assistance. The decision was being made (from what i was told)contingent on whether or not and federal assistance came through.
While it made the tapes much later, the decision (essentially an ultimatum) was crafted months prior.
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