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Teddagreek
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 04:39 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

http://hellforleathermagazine.com/2009/10/harley-d idnt-calculate-savings.html


WOW......
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Pkforbes87
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 04:51 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

We asked a former Wall Street banker with significant experience financing large motorcycle companies, what he thought of Harley's strategy

"'Leveraging the brand' is utterly ridiculous. People have the brand tattooed on their flesh, how much more leveraged are you gonna get?" He then moves on to compare Harley to GM, saying, "Selling a division and shuttering another are two first steps, but GM could always sell Hummer, stop making Escalades and make more small fuel efficient cars and hybrids. What the is Harley going to do? Start making Hondas?"


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Doylejj
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 05:01 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

My take from reading the HD explanations is that they're betting almost exclusively on international growth and are scraping every penny they can scrape up to do so.

I suspect they know the US brand business will decline over the years but are betting they can make more money abroad on the HD brand than risking changing the brand to retain/expand the US market.

If they have to change the bike mix for foreign sales they'll do so, with production abroad (that could be imported to US if they find a winner).

(Message edited by doylejj on October 16, 2009)

(Message edited by doylejj on October 16, 2009)
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Teddagreek
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 05:11 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I think I see their plan

Pretend you know what your doing

Cause Chaos

Destroy Company

Golden parachute
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Krassh
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 05:18 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Hmmm... lets see. Stopping sportster production in the foruth quarter, discontinue Buell. Build more big twin cruisers that no one can afford because most used to refi their house to buy one.

Curtail selling less expensive motorcycles to focus on more expensive models that no one is buying.

Of course no one is buying the sportsters either.
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Edgydrifter
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 05:25 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Chap-wearing Gnome: "Step One--Kill Buell. Step Three--Profit!"

Beuller: "What's Step Two?"

Chap-wearing Gnome: "Step Three is PROFIT!"
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Bikertrash05
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 05:27 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

"We have not quantified the benefits of increased focus on [the] Harley-Davidson brand as a result of discontinuing Buell nor included any potential savings in our restructuring estimates."

Sadly, I am not surprised by that statement. They really do not know what they are doing.

carlos said it best, just what I was thinking:

ok...so just at the math.

i'm confused by a statement.

"Buell revenue was $134.9 million in 2008 and $59.4 million in 2009 year-to-date. Capital expenditures related to Buell were $6.6 million in 2008 and $3.8 million September year-to-date."

so if i'm doing this right (wes or anyone, please correct me if i'm getting this wrong), Buell took a 44 percent drop in revenue...during in which the whole market dropped roughly around the same during this economic meltdown. Motorcycles are luxury items, and their usually the first to go.

but in the same 2 year time period, they cut their capital spending by 57 percent. so they cut their costs by more than the amount they took in reduced revenue sales. That's good right? Doesn't that mean that Buell was able to adapt to the market and at least survive.

and in this 2008 revue of numbers, buell was operating at a 4.8 percent ratio of costs vs. total revenue. sounds good. in 2009 they were operating at 6.6 percent ratio of cost versus revenue. not so good, but not so bad either considering this ratio wasn't a huge increase.

Don't these numbers seem pale in comparison to harley's own poor performance?

Does the phrase "to cut off your nose, to spite your face" apply here? In this case, your nose(Buell) being the only normal thing on your up face(H-D).

carlos | October 16, 2009 4:54 PM | Reply
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Indy_bueller
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 05:30 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Wow. So they admit that they have no idea if closing Buell is going to help or hurt. These guys are just grasping for straws. They have no idea what they are doing.
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Buellinator
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 05:43 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

What a bunch of goofs!
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Indy_bueller
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 05:57 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Chap-wearing Gnome: "Step One--Kill Buell. Step Three--Profit!"

Beuller: "What's Step Two?"

Chap-wearing Gnome: "Step Three is PROFIT!"


Seems like that's pretty accurate!
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Hex
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 06:00 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I liked this poster's comment:

...I hope Harley dies before they suck up any more of my tax dollars.


soooo, HD's been on the dole for three years already. Ha! HD WILL FAIL IN T MINUS ONE YEAR. I predict. I hope those weenies don't go crying for anymore handouts, FREE ERIK you a-holes set our little pony free.
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Indy_bueller
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 06:01 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

You know, I'm starting to come around to Court's way of thinking. This might be the best thing that ever happened to Buell.
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Tim_w
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 06:10 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

So how can WE help to free up the patients which they are obviously not going to use so Eric can continue his destiny?
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Ferris_von_bueller
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 06:12 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Why does any of this come as a surprise to anyone? The new CEO is a car guy, for God's sake. What the hell does he know about manufacturing motorcycles or the motorcycle culture. He was brought in from the outside to clean house and focus on profit. Motorcycles are a secondary concern.

To be honest, HD's slide began when they started marketing safety glasses and beef jerky, etc.
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Daveswan
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 06:22 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Ducati sale are up in the US by 10% in the top 20 cities despite the economy. HD is down 84% this year meaning people who either want one don't have the cash or they just don't want one anyways. Buell was on the cusp of overcoming the Harley association that drove a lot in that market to Ducati anyways and Ducatis are pretty big in Europe where Harleys I'm just guessing, knowing some european types, just really aren't waht they want for all of the reasons they're declining here. I wonder who was doing market research for Harley in Europe? The same pompous, loudmouth western travelers who just aren't can't see past their tiny little world view.
Luxury items are first to go, but fuel conscious folk "europe" where gas is like a million dollars per gallon are driving smaller displacement Monsters and such in lower displacements. Low displacement monsters look just like their larger siblings so there's an image thing and there's pedigree from he established brand where Buell needed to be assumed not to have problems like typical HD's .
I heard someone say once, "if Harley built an airplane, would you fly in it?"
I love my Buell but I don't think I'd fly a Harley plane, plus it would probably be open cockpit.
So there's a stigma that's going to take a long time to disassociate from.
They won't blame themselves by not following the pulse of technological advancement, but place all of the blame on the bad economy where Ducati is growing???
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Scooter808484
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 08:06 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

"The new CEO is a car guy, for God's sake"

He's not even a car guy.... they might make some car components. They also made thermostats for residential use and even attempted to be in the industrial controls market. What the f*ck does that have to do with bikes????

Then I looked at some link with the board of directors posted. Each and every one was at least one other board. The whole system has become so incestuous, these idiot MBA CEOs run back and forth patting each other on the back and lining their pockets, while running their companies, and our economy into the ground.

The sick thing is, the guy that made thermostats for a living, got to can (essentially) the guy who raced motorcycles, designed motorcycles from scratch, built motorcycles in his garage, built a motorcycle company, and developed his motorcycles into something that could win a national championship inside of a couple of years.

Something is definitely not right with that picture.
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Not_purple_s2
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 08:14 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

That's about right in the world of business these days.
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Slaughter
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 08:16 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Somehow many of us just never quite fit into the dominant culture:

Hey there all you big, bad biker boys... let's RIDE!



(Message edited by slaughter on October 16, 2009)
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Brumbear
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 08:39 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

didn't US car companies do something like this called SUV's big and expensive that will get em
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Iamike
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 08:46 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

That's like when our company hired a banking guy to run a utility. He never understand our main objective was to keep the meters turning. He didn't last long.
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Whatever
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 09:01 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Slaughter... I always thought your favorite song was

YMCA!!!

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Crusty
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 09:14 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Does anybody remember back in the '80s, when to work for Harley-Davidson, you had to be able to ride a motorcycle? From Vaughn Beals on down, everybody had to be a rider. When did that policy change? How soon before the bean counters kill the goose that lays the golden eggs?
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Court
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 09:14 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

>>>betting almost exclusively on international growth

Wait till some of the smoldering powder keg of international diplomacy begins to seethe over the next 18 months. International is fine, but I'd darn sure hedge my bet and not put all my eggs in a basket 2 guys and a tariff can poke holes in.

I used to marvel at my competitors who . . . when times got tough . . . would leave Kansas City and seek work in Denver, Dallas and Detroit.

I'm a bit conservative (say it ain't so Mr. Court???) but my logic was that it I could do what I did for a living at home there was a slim chance I'd get good as a result of being far away.

And when times were tough and I was seeing thin margins . . . if I had to loose money I wanted to do it at a job site I could walk to in 10 minutes.

Court's Rule of Business: The control you have over your business is the inverse or the square of the miles between your home office and the job site. For international work it's cubed.
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White
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 10:02 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I must be missing something, I don't get why they dropped Buell. Is it just so they could focus on Harley? Buell was what, 3% profit or something like that? Why piss off so many people to lose money?
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Indy_bueller
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 10:57 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Because it isn't about money. It's about getting rid of Buell.
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Rocketsprink
Posted on Friday, October 16, 2009 - 11:17 pm:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

and the shit started long before H-D's new CEO. he got the turd dumped in his lap, with not as many options as we'd all like to believe.
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Sparky
Posted on Saturday, October 17, 2009 - 01:30 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Quite possibly Buell could be bought by an outside investor if the worst scenario for Harley's survival were to happen as the Hell for Leather author opines:

quote:

Is it now conceivable that Harley could, at some point in the future, face a similar fate to Buell or at least find itself up for sale? Unless there's a considerable change in strategy, yes.



So if Harley' current strategy were to fail and they were forced into bankruptcy, perhaps it could be arranged that Erik could buy back his rights to rebuild a new BMC free from H-D's constraints. Not particularly wishing this on H-D, but we can dream, can't we?
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Buellgrrrl
Posted on Saturday, October 17, 2009 - 02:45 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

Strange things happen. About a year ago I predicted that half the HD dealers would go under in a year. I exagerated a bit for effect and a few dealers did go under, but I was off the mark by a fair bit. I didn't predict that Buell would get killed by HOG(NYSE), but I was a bit worried that in their panic HOG(NYSE)'s new management would blame Buell for their financial mess and kill off our beloved Buell. Unfortunately my worries came true.

Now to the hopeful stuff- it looks like Buell dealers sold a months inventory of Buells yesterday alone. Clearly Buell has a loyal following that could support a new Buell company. HOG(NYSE)'s finances haven't improved one bit since they killed Buell- they've burned through most of that billion or so that they borrowed at 15% and lenders will be reluctant to give HOG(NYSE) more. With little capital to finance sales next riding season and certainly no money to develop and bring to production a new model, HOG(NYSE) could be in bankruptcy by this time next year.

Strange things happen in bankruptcy... A prototype Dodge truck built in the early 70s and put into storage and forgotten when Dodge exited the heavy truck business in 1975 is now safely in the hands of a Dodge truck collector. In similar manner, a GMC prototype from the 80s was adopted by a collector thanks to the GM bankruptcy. Thus we may see Erik Buell buy his company back for pennies on the dollar and put Buell bikes back into production.
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Ronbob43
Posted on Saturday, October 17, 2009 - 10:33 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

I was wondering when I would see a Buellgrrrl post. I too hope Buell motorcycles come out of this mess somehow. I have never been emotionally involved in a brand/family like I am now. Kinda stupid, huh?
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Xl1200r
Posted on Saturday, October 17, 2009 - 10:46 am:   Edit Post Delete Post View Post/Check IP Print Post    Move Post (Custodian/Admin Only)

^ Not stupid. I feel the same way, and my girlfriend just doesn't understand it.
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