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Bomber
| Posted on Wednesday, August 30, 2006 - 03:36 pm: |
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Blake -- you can buy it, or not -- machs nix to me, sir ;-} I'm not saying that lower paying jobs are taking over, per se, but the number of them is cerainly growing -- and the number of higher paying jobs, while also growing, is not growing when compared to the number of people who are potentially part of the reported-upon workforce -- agreed that many previously-high paying, but lesser skilled jobs are drying up in this country, but, as a long-time employee in the high tech segment of the economy, i'm here to tell ya that highly educated engineering types are also finding that market much tougher than is used to be -- you are certainly free to view any posting as negativity -- other may view your opinion as unrealisticaly polyanna like -- but, as you (and others) point out, the economy has always changed -- that's not at all new -- what is more recent is the pace of that change is far quicker than many expected or are prepared for as for wage correction -- yes, and no -- 20 years ago, there was no need for a wage correction in, say, software engineering, as all the competition was in the same location (speaking globally) -- now, of course, that location has expanded to include the planet as a whole -- me, I've moved on a number of time, and have been blessed with outstanding luck -- others have not been so fortunate -- the job universe today is not the one folks were educated to be prepared for (whether the education stopped with high school or a doctorate) -- can't fault folks for feeling badly cuz what they perceived as the social contract seems to have been broken |
Old_man
| Posted on Wednesday, August 30, 2006 - 03:44 pm: |
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Blake, We all know that no one is entitled to a lifelong job. But that doesn't make it any less sad for a man in his 50s who loses a job that he worked at for his adult life. At his age no one wants to hire him if that job was available elsewhere. A good friend of mine is a die maker, the best at the company he worked for. He was the man they gave their most complex jobs to. He has only a high school education. Had to take an early retirement ended up with a lump sum payment for the retirement program he was counting on. Lives on what Social Security pays. I guess he may be better off than some. |
Blake
| Posted on Wednesday, August 30, 2006 - 06:04 pm: |
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In general... What's the solution? Closed trade, tarrifs, communism? No thanks. Who's to blame? If you think economic change is happening faster now than previously, you were lucky enough, as was I, to miss the great depression. Surely you recall the horrible recession of the late '70's early '80's. You wanna talk about a horrible situation, that was horrible. Interest rates and inflation through the roof with rampant double digit unemployment. Today we achieve record GNP; we have record tax revenues despite lower tax rates, and we enjoy near record low unemployment. But it's all gloomy-like? I don't get it. How can that be? Where is all this productivity coming from? Give them folks a raise! Here's some sobering data that shows a comparison of gross domestic product (GDP) for America versus five emerging economies: http://www.dol.gov/asp/media/reports/chartbook/chart5_5.htm Wow, this one is shocking! Look at the big Euro nations. Not only are their unemployment rates double ours, but about half of their unemployed have been without work for more than a year. Can you imagine the holy hell that people would be raising if we were suffering the similarly? |
Blake
| Posted on Wednesday, August 30, 2006 - 06:07 pm: |
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Chart 1.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, 2004 converted at PPP rates Thousands of U.S. Dollars With world leading performance like this, how is it our jobs are moving to the domestic service industry away from manufacturing and high tech? Did the above chart change significantly for 2005? http://www.dol.gov/asp/media/reports/chartbook/chart1_1.htm |
Old_man
| Posted on Wednesday, August 30, 2006 - 06:12 pm: |
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Blake, I'm not saying there is anyone to blame. May be just the way things have to be. All I'm saying is that I feel sorry for those poor people caught in that situation. My friend was in a non-union company, so I can't blame the unions. It was a family owned company that seemed to treat their employees fairly. I can't blame anyone, but I feel sorry for all involved. |
Blake
| Posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 12:50 am: |
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Gotcha. I can empathize. I bet he'll bounce back fine. |
Pwnzor
| Posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 02:37 am: |
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I'm feeling your sentiment, Jack. My dad and the die maker you mentioned both had a similar circumstance in their lives, only having a high school education. By this, they sort of pigeonholed themselves with regard to future possiblities. Like I said, if that shipyard had closed earlier, I'd be eating labstahs and pasties for lunch. It sucks when the floor falls out from under you but unfortunately for some it is reality. The thing I'm doing different is working for myself. With my education (at least what I can prove with documents) not too many others would hire me, to be honest. I have a lot of life experience and I try to absorb all the knowledge I can, but I won't be returning to school. I've cut my trail and I'm hiking to the top, wherever it might actually be. I saw what nearly happened to my dad, but more importantly, I saw what happened to the guys who had only been there 20 years instead of 37. They got dropped like a hot potato that got kicked underneath the refrigerator and left there. Definitely sucked, but a lot of them picked up and moved to North Carolina or Delaware, various other east coast shipbuilders or vendors to them. I have the security of knowing that during my lifetime, everything will continue to be delivered on a truck. Fedex is doing their best to knock out all the local overnight freight carriers in their quest to beat UPS for sheer volume. I have to focus on the last bastion of the trucker who wants to make a living, on-demand freight. I have the ability to pull crazy wide load permits out of nowhere on a moment's notice and it has kept food on my table through some tough times. In fact it bought me the wildly overpriced, yet modest, home I live in. It has put my kids in the schools I could only WISH to have attended. I had a kid at age 15, and again at age 17. Not an easy ride. But because I LIKE to work, and made my own way in a cutthroat industry, I can provide for my boys better than what my parents could for me. They did the best they could, and now I am doing the best I can. Having said that, it could all fall apart in 24 hours. The leasing company can decide to take back most of my trucks if they really wanted to. The fine print on those contracts is enough to make you seasick. I have people depending on me for work and if it all went away, I'd be left with one hell of a guilty conscience but I'd still be able to sell my truck and live on the funds comfortably for over a year because it's the only one I own outright. I pray each day and again at night that it doesn't happen to me. I hope your friend's situation turns out for the best as well. |
Pwnzor
| Posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 02:41 am: |
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There is only one national park in America that is free to visit, Great Smokey Mountains National Park This is not quite correct, sorry for the late response but I felt the need to clarify this since it is kind of misleading. National Parks have entry fees for vehicles. Pedestrians and bicyclists are free to enter. Some camping is free and some is not. |
Bomber
| Posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 09:55 am: |
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Blake -- I'll echo old man's sentiments -- I'm not trying to blame anyone either -- good data in those charts -- like many, though, they only tell part of the story (the happiest part, for sure, but only part) My career (basically acting as a translator between engineers and the rest of the world) was built on the backs of those high school grads and drop outs that worked in factories -- the more my industry grew, the more theirs shrunk -- not initmating cause and effect, mind you, but they did take place at the same time just like when our grandads left the family farm for the city and real paying jobs -- that hurt the family farm, and mortally -- the chages have always occured, but what used to take a generation now takes five or ten years -- last I saw, it was expected that a college grad should expect to have 3 to 5 careers before they stop working -- not jobs, but careers (i.e., steel worker to customer support tech to engineer to trainer to tech writer) the growth in GDP and the like IS coming from a variety of sources -- including plants and factories here in the US -- however, those plants and factories, while they generate far more product and profit, employ far fewer people when I wrote about autmotated bottling plants (you think the space shuttle is complex?), an industry rag take about hte "bottling plant of the future" having two employees: a man and a dog. The man's job would be to feed the dog, and the dog's job would be to keep the man from messing with the equipment. ain't quite happend, yet ;-} every action has an equal and opposite reaction -- unemployed factory workers are part of the price that is paid for highly automated (and profitable) plants -- hence, not all is as rosey as it appears from 100,000 feet, the altitude at which the data is gathered to generate those charts -- there are many, many communities that are suffering as the economy changes (Gary, Waukegan, North and South Chicago -- I'm sure everyone could add many more), and it's certainly NOT the fault of the individuals that make up those communities -- it's no one's fault, really, but a rising tide, while it may float all boats equally, does not do much for the boatless |
Skyguy
| Posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 12:59 pm: |
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My answer to this argument? Paragliders and balloons. Simplicity at it finest. If and when this country folds flat I will just go somewhere else and fly. |
Old_man
| Posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 01:49 pm: |
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It is the nature of corporate America to only look at the bottom line - So anything that cuts costs - wages being a big one. But in the long run they may be cutting their own throats. People who work in the service industries and the unemployed can't afford very much. Even if they can cut the price of their products they will have fewer who can afford what they are making. The auto industry may be an indicator of this situation. I was talking to a good friend, a retired Marine officer and bank vice president who worked in the Bush Sr. administration. He agreed with me that this is a problem, but could see no answer. I can't either. Like water, I suppose the economy will seek a level. I fear this level may end up closer to a country like Mexico than to what we had in this country before. I pray this isn't the case. But I can see, what we call our "middle class" shrinking. |
Blake
| Posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 05:51 pm: |
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My view is that far more communities are thriving than suffering and I'm just don't agree with dim outlook that y'all seem to have. I'm just looking at the hard data. Can you find any actual hard data that supports this gloomy outlook you say exists in our labor market? I cannot. I don't see it not on any kind of national scale; I accept the occasional plant shutdown's and their negative effects locally, but on a national scale, I don't see any alarming evidence of the deterioration of the labor class or their wages, other than the increase in oil prices currently affecting everyone's bottom line wage buying power. Here's some interesting info to consider... "labor's share of income has averaged 70.5% (of national income) over the past 50 years and has remained within a narrow range of that average," "contrary to the widespread impression that labor's share has been squeezed, there was no change in labor's share from 1996:Q3 to 2005:Q1. ... Labor's income share ... fluctuated around a mean of 71.2 percent between early 1984 and early 2005." If labor income is remaining pretty much constant and GDP and productivity are increasing, it's impossible that the gloomy scenario you describe is anywhere near close to describing the job/employment situation in this country. What you may be missing is that while some factories close, others open, elsewhere. I'm just looking at the hard data. Can you find any actual hard data that supports this gloomy outlook you say exists in our labor market? I cannot. Help me out guys. I pulled the above quotes from here, an excellent analysis of fact and data that soundly debunks some of the gloomy doomy stuff. |
Old_man
| Posted on Thursday, August 31, 2006 - 07:05 pm: |
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Blake, You may be right, My point of view may be clouded by what I see around me. When I was growing up in the 50s over half of the worlds steel was made here in the Pittsburgh area. I worked in one of the biggest mills before becoming a policeman. When the mills aged, rather than rebuilding here, many rebuilt elsewhere in the country, and abandoned the mills here. Then foreign steel, much supported by their governments overtook domestic production. Almost none of our electronics are produced in this country. Our clothing and shoes are made elsewhere. My son-in-law is in the computer field, much of the work he was doing is going to India.- simply because of cheap wages. I don't see where we are gaining anywhere. |
Blake
| Posted on Friday, September 01, 2006 - 01:37 am: |
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I understand. Take a look at the dept of labor stats. I bet you'll see some things there. I know that the computer industry is a HUGE employer here in America, hardware development (the REAL high paying jobs) and software as well, MONGO HUGE, really, gosh just look at the internet. Hey, the BadWeB server is in America! Our entertainment industry (music, movies, TV, radio, print...) including all the sporting stuff rules. All those cable channels didn't sprout up without creating a few jobs. Military/defense and space technology is a big employer here. Wanna buy a cutting edge communications satellite? Give L3 or Hughes a call. GPS? We owne it. The oil industry is huge here. Communications (SatCom and cellular and...)is huge here. Science and medical tech is mongo scary huge here. Just look where you spend money, you'll find a flourishing job market. Pharmaceuticals is huge here. Ranching, farming, fishing, logging, mining, metalurgy, machining, are all going strong. Our aircraft industry including the airlines is mongo bigtime. Besides, like I said before, if what you imagine were true nationwide, how is it everyone is working? We can't all work at Walmart. Not that Walmart doesn't pay a decent wage, average is $10/hr I hear. Hey how about heavy equipment. LeTourneau is just up the road in Longview, TX. Not to mention Cat, John Deer, all the big heavy haulers. Who builds the big tunneling machines? Yep, right here in America. I think a lot of folks look at consumer products like televisions and other common ordinary electronic products, and many even most all are made overseas. But what most folks don't see is the truly cutting edge stuff that is being done in America. Television just isn't high tech anymore. Heck, the Japanese come looking for us when they need a never been done before state of the art satellite communications system. Buck up! The future's so bright... Got your shades on? |
Brucelee
| Posted on Friday, September 01, 2006 - 10:27 am: |
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The economy added 128K jobs last month. Non farm jobs, that is. Figure just released this AM. BTW-the original point of the post was that the governments spends money a lot faster than it takes it in. |
G234146
| Posted on Friday, September 01, 2006 - 04:25 pm: |
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"last I saw, it was expected that a college grad should expect to have 3 to 5 careers before they stop working" It looks like Old Man and Bomber are describing the subjective experience of our changing economy. Although on paper we may doing fine. The pace at which change occurs is something that is leaving people behind. While one was expecting to have a lifelong career with a "good company" pension, benefits, etc, now the norm is to change careers every 2 to 5 years. The prospect of that change can be overwhelming for a family man w/bills, mortgage, kids... Companies routinely go through Reductions In Force in order to balance their books. Cut a few heads, lose the overhead, all is well. The company may be doing fine, but the folks it uproots may not. In the same way, the economy may be doing great, but its changes may be leaving some of us in the dust. my .02 cents. no, wait: my .005 cents. |
Old_man
| Posted on Friday, September 01, 2006 - 07:03 pm: |
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Today's editorial in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette expressed, better than I can, some of the problems I am seeing. http://www.postgazette.com/pg/06243/717718-192.stm |
Az_m2
| Posted on Friday, September 01, 2006 - 09:51 pm: |
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I'm hiring. Damn good $ too. Figure this, it's an IT job. How can that be considering all the outsourcing. |
Mr_grumpy
| Posted on Saturday, September 02, 2006 - 05:28 am: |
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Just out of interest I did a bit of skimming on the US Bureau of Labor website, There's a lot of interesting stuff I haven't the time or the dullness to read it it all but here's a few bits & bobs I found interesting. PPPs for GDP Exchange Relative (U.S.=1.000) Rates Prices 1/ United States 1.000 1.000 1.00 Canada 1.229 1.570 0.78 Australia 1.337 1.839 0.73 Japan 143.7 125.2 1.15 Republic of Korea 778.8 1250.3 0.62 Austria 0.912 1.058 0.86 Belgium 0.883 1.058 0.83 Denmark 8.425 7.886 1.07 France 0.900 1.058 0.85 Germany 0.959 1.058 0.91 Italy 0.825 1.058 0.78 Netherlands 0.921 1.058 0.87 Norway 9.142 7.984 1.15 Sweden 9.365 9.723 0.96 United Kingdom 0.610 0.666 0.92 1/ A number below one indicates that prices in this country are lower than in the United States and a number higher than one that prices are higher than in the United States. This illustrates that compared to a lot of other countries Americans pay more, & is of course entirely meaningless. You can prove anything by statistics. A quote by Benjamin Disraeli & popularised by Mark Twain is apt, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics" Gotta stop now, I have to go & prove that angels can't dance on the head of a pin cos they've got no music. |
Blake
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 01:35 am: |
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Here's an interesting stat I heard on the news today: The manufacturing job sector has exhibited growth in each of the last 38 months. But we're losing jobs? Still waiting for the hard data fellas. Old, you keep reading drivel like that PPG editorial and I can see why you have such a dim outlook. Ask the guy how much the percentage of children living below poverty level increased and how much of that is due to illegal immigration. I'm an analyst for a living. That kind of BS commentary has no business being read as though it is hard news, cause it ain't, it's pretty much propaganda. I ain't kidding. (Message edited by Blake on September 03, 2006) |
Brucelee
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 02:03 am: |
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Blake, you are wasting your time. As Paul Simon said many years ago, "a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest!" |
Blake
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 02:07 am: |
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I like Old_Man and Bomber and enjoy discussing stuff with them. Not a waste of time at all. Don't take it so personally when folks don't share your views. |
Brucelee
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 02:09 am: |
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It is when there is NO chance of change or understanding. |
Pwnzor
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 02:35 am: |
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/ignore |
Ryker77
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 09:39 am: |
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Whats the amount of income lost when a company closes and relocates elsewhere? then that person has to find a new job and most of the time start at the bottom level wages. People need to understand and plan there life around the fact they might NOT have a job next week or might not be making top wages. The sad part is that most people who get cut/fired/downsized were not smart enough to non get fired. So they are probably not wise enough to NOT finacne that new 45,000 truck for 6 years! etc etc.. With in 10 years some type of major even will happen and things will change. weather, crime, oil, war? who knows. But can you pay your bills and put food on the table, if things change? |
Brucelee
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 10:30 am: |
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"/ignore" This kind of proves my earlier point! |
Mr_grumpy
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 04:38 pm: |
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Hey, don't shoot me, I copied it straight off your own government's Bureau of Labor website. Link below. ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/ForeignLabor/flsgdp.txt It's right down at the bottom of the page if you care to look, but you don't really need to bother if you don't want to, I's only funnin' with ya. I know you love & care passionately about your country, & you've a perfect right to do so. I don't ridicule your country, I think it's a great place, it's young & vibrant. But as we all know it's not perfect, but hey where is? Europeans have a very different outlook on the world, we live in much smaller countries, which have been fought over, for centuries. Europeans civilised what is commonly known as the "Western World" memories are long, many view Americans as being "Those upstarts from over the sea that we got started & then threw us out". Still more remember only the loudmouth braggarts & I'm sure there were some, but very few. Personally I grew up in regular contact with Americans, I ride an American bike, have an American pickup, watch baseball, drink rootbeer. I've got no axe to grind against the US or it's citizens. I get the odd know-nothing ranting anti US slogans at me because I'm riding round in an American vehicle that was made before they were born, but there are dickheads everywhere. All I'm asking is that you don't tar everyone with the same brush & don't condemn a whole country because you don't care for how that country's democratically elected representatives run it I'm sure there'd be a reaction if I started criticizing how your elected reps do their thing. You elect em you can say what you like about em. France isn't perfect although it's very nice. England, in my opinion (and I know I'm not alone) is so far down the toilet socially it's nearly irredeemable, still, we can hope for improvement. Most of us are just trying to get by as best we can. wherever we live. So chill out, lighten up, these arguments, discussions, call em what you will, will be going on long after we're all dust. As the French say "Vive la difference" I think that about sums it up. Time for some more Scotch I think, CHEERS. |
Blake
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 05:57 pm: |
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Oops, I said "Grump" up above when I meant to say "Old Man". My bad. Done fixed it though. "England, in my opinion (and I know I'm not alone) is so far down the toilet socially it's nearly irredeemable, still, we can hope for improvement." Where in heck do you get that? Muslims been burning the place or something? |
Blake
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 06:02 pm: |
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Grump, I'm not sure what your point was wrt the currency exchange rates. I agree with your assertion that they don't mean much of anything in a simple one on one comparison. For instance, will not my "less valuable" dollar buy a lot more gasoline here in America than an equal amount of Euros will in Europe? This might raise some interesting price point versus buying power comparisons. |
Mr_grumpy
| Posted on Sunday, September 03, 2006 - 06:23 pm: |
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We're getting into the murky, shark infested, waters of taxation & politics now, & I can't swim THAT well. |
Pwnzor
| Posted on Monday, September 04, 2006 - 01:23 pm: |
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Glitch
| Posted on Monday, September 04, 2006 - 01:30 pm: |
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www.fairtax.org It's the only way to go. |
Blake
| Posted on Monday, September 04, 2006 - 05:12 pm: |
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I'm with the Grumpy guy. Glitch, That's an interesting start, but it seems to have some problems. I like the idea of a consumption tax, but I think it should include stock transactions too, albeit at a very low rate. Maybe the fairtax already does that? Used merchandise sold by retail outlets should be taxed, used cars and pawn shop merchandise for instance. No rebate, everyone should pay their share, no tax on groceries though. Energy should be taxed just like if not more than other products and services. Getting rid of the IRS, man how much would that save the federal budget? |
Brucelee
| Posted on Tuesday, September 05, 2006 - 10:10 am: |
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"Getting rid of the IRS, man how much would that save the federal budget?" Sadly, this will never happen (imho). Why, because the tax code will never be simplified! Why? Because its complexity is needed to hide and confuse. That is how politicians and government works. If folks had a very clear idea of how much they are REALLY taxed by all forms of government, it is likely we could have another Boston Tea Party. No, I can safely predict we will not see any meaningful tax reform in my life. |
Pwnzor
| Posted on Tuesday, September 05, 2006 - 10:54 am: |
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For once, I agree with you Brucelee. |
Bomber
| Posted on Tuesday, September 05, 2006 - 11:17 am: |
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get rid of the IRS and all THOSE folks will be lookin for gigs! (grin) BL -s right -- meaningful tax reform will likely not happen anytime soon, as it will affect everyone, and there's always some who'll support the status quo, as they are comforatble (every seen a majority of Congress turn down a pay hike?) break break labor IS, in fact, continuing to get the same percentage of GDP (or GNP) as before (70-ish %) -- however, the stats do not address how that 70% is divided up -- of coursre our entertainment industry rocks -- good to know we won't need to have a tag day for George Clooney any time soon -- ditto sports and Tiger Woods -- while factories ARE opening, they require far fewer employees to operate than that ones closing -- the economy is growing, as Blake shows -- so is the population -- if George Clooney and Tiger Woods get 50% revenue increases, and labor continues to get approx 70% of the GDP . . . . . . not pickin on Tiger or George -- just trying to point out that a rising tide does not necessariloy float all boats the same as for hard data, I'll not bother with the usual Mark Twain quote, but suggest to wander round Starbucks or where ever your out of work (or under employed) professional types hang out in hope of a successful networking opportunity -- blue collar workers are hurtin, and hutin really badly in some locales -- this does NOT mean the economy sucks, but it does mean that amny have been negatively impacted by the changes that have occured in the economy -- not even vaguely interested in trying to change anyone's mind - as BL said, it ain't gonna happen, and, frankly, I'm pretty far past being concerned about most other folks' opinions -- I've been attempting to illustrate an alternate view of the economy to balance the other views expressed here -- sorta kinda like the economic version of the "loyal opposition" idea in politics (grin) -- yet another idea that's fallen out of favor in the US of late -- ah well -- happy Tuesday! the short track races at Srpingfield ROCKED!
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Glitch
| Posted on Tuesday, September 05, 2006 - 11:55 am: |
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Well, at least I'm trying to do something about the situation by supporting the Fair Tax. Rather than just bitching about it. I've been working with John Linder for a few years now. I know the Fair Tax isn't perfect, but is sure beats the hell outta what we got now! |
Brucelee
| Posted on Tuesday, September 05, 2006 - 12:51 pm: |
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I am ALL FOR trying to change the tax code. Last year, I took a 66 hour course on individual taxes (not including prep time). We barely scratched the surface.' Most folks have NO IDEA how complex the tax code is and how much time and money it costs to really comply with it. Moreover, most folks don't know about trusts and other sophisticated LEGAL ways to avoid and defer taxes. Here is a hint--The lawyers in Congress who pass these laws KNOW. I read a short description of the Kennedy family trust structure once. It made me numb with confusion and I am pretty good at trusts and all. Anyway, I do think it is good to agitate but I have low expectations based on past experience. thanks for the advocacy! |
Glitch
| Posted on Tuesday, September 05, 2006 - 01:46 pm: |
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More than 60,000 pages of tax code. Yep I'd say 66 hours is a start. I've been signed on to Fair Tax for over 15 years doing what I can when I can. This year is the best year yet. We actaully got it on the ballot in four counties here in GA just to see how many people would be for it. Over 80% of the people are for it, that's both democrats and republicans! We had a rally here a few months ago, and had to turn people away, the colosseum couldn't hold any more people. |
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