| Author | Message | ||
     Court |
>>>I don't know but I SUSPECT that Buell is a big part of that 30 year strategy. That, in my personal opinion, is a more accurate statement than you can possibly guess. The folks who put HD where they are today are not stupid. They also take a decidely more optimistic view of this than many on the internet. I, and I know you'll laugh, am always reminded of Lousi Rukeyer's "Success Offends Bureaucrats". It likewise offends the meek of mind who Monday morning quarterback on the internet. Few HD stockholders have complained of lackluster performance. By the way. . mark my words....to wit:
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| Buellgrrrl |
Three decades ago I worked at Sears... It was obvious their best days were behind them, but they were fat and happy. Today both Target and that upstart guy from Bentonville that wasn't even on their radar have passed Sears. Her crown jewels (Sears Tower, shopping centers, etc.) have been pawned, and she's had to shack up with K-Mart to make her rent. Then I worked at Ford and Chevy stores. The Ford store closed years ago and the Chevy store is hanging on by a thread. Back then business was good and they laughed at Toyota. I spent 14 years with Continental Baking, bakers of Wonder Bread and Hostess Cake. Despite their bread volume peaking in the 70s, they thought whole grain bread was a fad and figured no one would buy cheap cakes trucked up from the south and left on the shelves for a month, Today their in their 2nd year of Chapter 11 reorginization, still hemouraging money, and may go into Chapter 7 liquidation. And where is HDI today? About where Sears, Ford, and GM were in the 60s and Continental Baking was in the 70s. Hopefully HDI will wake up and smell the coffee before they become a penny stock and their bonds achieve junk status. | ||
| Xlcr |
You know, some how I can't help feeling that exactly the opposite is true. I don't know how old you are, girlie, but I was around during the Great Sales Slump of the early '80s, and as I remember, Harley reacted quickly and competently to chop production, lower inventory, reduce overhead, and introduce new models. It enabled them to survive in spite of a huge leveraged buyout debt. The Japanese, on the other hand, firmly closed their eyes to reality, kept their production lines in full swing for three years, and forced their dealers to continue accepting bikes to honor their contracts in spite of the obvious fact that no one was buying them. The result for them was warehouses and dealer back rooms full of leftover bikes that they couldn't give away, which led to a collapse in resale values, dealer bankruptcies, and finally, the hard evidence, in the form of snapshots of the packed warehouses on the west coast, that Harley needed to get the federal government down on them in the form of the 'Harley Tariff." Ten years of hard times for Japan, Inc. followed. Just last year Harley had a small one quarter slump, and they immediately cut production and reduced overhead, so quickly that they were sued by a few freaked-out investors that didn't understand the traditionally cautious Harley way of doing business. This convinces me that in spite of 20 continuious years of success, Harley management is as canny and careful as ever. In any other company with that much success you would be seeing Enron-like levels of huberis and wastage. I'm not seeing that at Harley. The management isn't flying about in private jets and spending company funds like they're going out of style. The Japanese, on the other hand, have shown that they are very good at dealing with success, and very bad at dealing with failure. I think sooner or later we will see another market downturn, and when we do, once more I expect it to be the Japanese that make all of the mistakes. They are huge businesses, that require huge volumes to make a profit. If those huge volumes disappear again for whatever reason, it's not improbable that the parent companies will decide to cut their losses. | ||
| M2nc |
I think HD sees the writing on the wall. They have to expand and improve or the competition will surpass them. They are definitely answering Japanese competition with the 96 ci motor, wider tires and some styling changes. HD has to see that the new people that are coming into the market world wide and not going to pay for a Harley just because its a Harley. Peer pressure, though still there, is fading here in the homeland, and oversea is non-existant. New buyers will find Harleys expensive and will have to be shown the value. The selling point of resale value is falling fast because the law of supply and demand. I have seen friends with HDs thinking they can get what they paid for it a couple years earlier to find out those days are gone. Many end up hanging on to a bike they don't really like because they can not get more than 70% to 80% of what they paid and considering the price of entry the loss in dollar value is in the thousands. A Goldwing has better resale value than a FLH, a VTX has better resale value than most Dynas not including the Wide Glide. There are a few models that HD still has that are popular but outside of those, their resale values have slumped dramatically over the past five years. This is a signal that the Harley market is saturated and if they want to continue to grow they have to do two things, woo new customers to their traditional products (in the report it seems women are in their cross-hairs) and bring new products to market they are not competitive in now. This is where the Buells and V-rods are at the fore-front of attacking a new market. I read somewhere that V-Rods sales were strong in European markets where Harley is a very small player if you take into account all the two-wheel vehicles sold for street use there. Most Buells are also sold in Europe so if they continue to read the market and come up with bikes that will take Harleys into markets they do not compete in now it will definitely help those next ten years. The Uly I hope will show HD that Buells can be front and center. The only comment I have about the dealers is that if they are going to carry Buells they need to train their sales people to sell. They have order takers now and if you have bikes like Buells that are competing against other non-main stream makers, the dealers need to learn to sell their product. To me if Ulys were sold somewhere other than a HD dealership more of them would have been sold. Many BMW riders like the bike and want to take a closer look, but just can not bring themselves to go into a Harley dealership. I wonder if Harley dealers are an asset or liability for Buell. (Message edited by M2nc on July 19, 2006) | ||
| Brucelee |
"And where is HDI today? About where Sears, Ford, and GM were in the 60s and Continental Baking was in the 70s. Hopefully HDI will wake up and smell the coffee before they become a penny stock and their bonds achieve junk status." With all due respect, BULLSHIT. Your qualifications to make this prognosis are what? | ||
| Brucelee |
The Japanese bike makers are omnipotent right? Is that why Kawasaki and Suzuki are now one? I think they had, hmmm, a hiccup. Get real, the HD guys are the envy of most of the business world. They know there niche and they are working it big time. I wish I had purchased their stock, way back when! | ||
| M2nc |
Brucelee - Remember, Harley is big here, not overseas. Honda is big everywhere. If you look only in the markets that Harley is in, it is bigger than Honda, but take into account all Honda motorcycle and scooter sales and it trumps Harley. If Harley wants to expand from here on, they are going to have to start looking into markets they are not in now. I am not a stock analyst, but my money is on the fact that Harley stock is topping out and you can make more money elsewhere. | ||
| Brucelee |
Keep in mind my original point, which was in reference to Buell Girls comments about the ONLY BRIGHT SPOT! I am not saying that HD is immune to competition, no one is. However, lets give credit where it is due. They have had a great run and are very very good at what they do. | ||
| M2nc |
Agreed! They have had a great run going and I for one am routing for them. | ||
| Xlcr |
Stocks are no basis for judging anything anymore. What's going on in the market these days is madness with no grounding in reality, much like it was in 2000......... Remember, companies stay in business by selling product, not by manipulating the stock prices. I think most of the people on Wall Street have completely forgotten that, if they ever knew it in the first place. The current roster of market investors are just habitual gamblers that will continue feeling the machine until they run out of quarters. | ||
| Tramp |
Xlcr said: "Stocks are no basis for judging anything anymore. What's going on in the market these days is madness with no grounding in reality, much like it was in 2000......... Remember, companies stay in business by selling product, not by manipulating the stock prices. I think most of the people on Wall Street have completely forgotten that, if they ever knew it in the first place. The current roster of market investors are just habitual gamblers that will continue feeling the machine until they run out of quarters." well-said. | ||
| Buellgrrrl |
I think it'll take at least a decade or so for HDI to crash- their profit margins are still quite generous. A decade also gives plenty of time for management to get woken up and make course corrections. Hopefully that's the outcome that will occur. In the meantime HDI is not on my buy list. However, if they spun off HDI with Erik Buell as CEO and Court on the Board I might get interested. BTW, I manage my own portfolio pretty much and it's outperforming the market. | ||
| Tramp |
sh*t. again, I cannot argue with buellgrrrl. that's three strikes. well-said, buellgrrl  | ||
| Brucelee |
"In the meantime HDI is not on my buy list. However, if they spun off HDI with Erik Buell as CEO and Court on the Board I might get interested. BTW, I manage my own portfolio pretty much and it's outperforming the market." Well, lets see, you want "them" to spin off HDI from HDI? That's a neat trick. Well, you do manage your own investments so you should know how to do this! PS- I am sure those morons who run HDI will appreciate this sage advice and get right on it! | ||
| Court |
>>>>However, if they spun off HDI with Erik Buell as CEO and Court on the Board I might get interested. Careful lest you get what you ask for . . .  | ||
| Pwnzor |
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| Bomber |
Motorcycle enthusiasts judging HDI's performance on their motorcycle products is, lemme see, er, odd. clearly, no one buys a Harley for it's leading edge technology, it's off the showroom floor performance, it's ability to smoke the competition at the strip, or much of any other "traditional" motorcycle wonderfulness aspect however, folks DO go into HD dealerships and leave with less money in their pocket pretty darned often -- the dealers are selling stuff to willing purchasers -- for the better part of 15 year, I was predicting the wave HD was then riding to colapse out from under them like the beach break at Monmouth Beach -- what I wasn't undertanding is that, for whatever reasons, HD was selling bikes to folks that were not me ;-} I've also not watched much "Reality" TV shows -- and yet, gasp, they are seemingly successful -- go figure | ||
| Court |
I bought Harley-Davidsons, about 8 of them, just because I liked Harley-Davidson motorcycles. Purchasing a stock that returned $1,000 for every $1 invested was icing on the cake. Investing is LOGICAL, our entire family is on Wall Street and has survived the comings and goings of lots of "flashes in the pan". Even the hedge fund forrays into Russian oil and Japanese banks last year had a method to their madness. Motorcycles are ILLOGICAL, more so in the United States, where they are seldom used for REAL transportation, than anywhere in the world. | ||
| Snail |
Blake, thanks for responding to my post here re: recall work, and lack of dealerships to perform such. The recall I'm referring to is: "The defect involves the idle control cable,..." First notice was sent out in '03 and second notice sent in '05. Its my understanding this is remedied by installing a clamp to keep the cable from comming dislodged from the guide if the cable is improperly adjusted. Since this recall was first issued, the dealership I bought the bike from has quit doing Buells. This particular dealership was 180 miles from me. They were the closest. I actually don't know where the nearest dealership is now, but it would be in excess of 200 miles. So, it would take a full day of my time, and a large fuel expense, to have a cable clamp installed. With that in mind, you might be able to understand my resentment when people refer to the culling of the dealerships as being a 'good thing'. It seems reasonable to me to think that more dealerships would be better than fewer dealerships. In the meantime I plan to keep my cables adjusted properly, and not ride the bike much. No change there. | ||
| Jlnance |
What I wasn't undertanding is that, for whatever reasons, HD was selling bikes to folks that were not me I also misunderstood this. I was enlightened when, after getting divorced, I needed a new credit card. For no particular reason, I got an HD Visa card. I get comments on that card at least a third of the times I use it. The most memorable being the pharmicist who told me it was "so hot" as I was paying for a box of condoms. I get comments on my other cards approximatly never. Harley isn't selling motorcycles. Harley is selling sex. The motorcycle is simply the vehicle used to deliver the sex. It's not such a bad business to be in. | ||
| Midknyte |
Buying condoms from the cute pharmacist with an HD Card. heh, I'll have to remember that tactic. | ||
| Toxic |
I find this discussion quite amusing. So much angst on this specific thread...over what? Some peoples' opinions on how they think HD/Buell can excel? I mean, we all want the same thing, right? A strong company with a good and marketable profit. Everyone on here that throws a fit over someone else's viewpoint needs to find something better to do with their time. To the haters-stop drinking the kool-aid and relax a bit. Can't we all just get along? Someone, please pick up on the irony.  (Message edited by toxic on July 20, 2006) | ||
| Hattori_hanzo |
Midnyte...Jlanance never said the pharmacist was cute...heck, he never even said the pharmacist was a SHE!  | ||
| Midknyte |
Jlanance never said the pharmacist was cute...heck, he never even said the pharmacist was a SHE! Nope, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt | ||
| Henrik |
Paul; the clamps are a few bucks. Just buy and install. The results of things going bad because they're not installed are not pretty. Hell, I'll buy and send you a set if you shoot me a PM with your address. Henrik | ||
| Snail |
Henrik, thanks, its not the money, I'd be happy to buy the parts and install them myself. There's a validation card that needs to be filled out by a dealer, I expect there's legal reasons for having a Buell dealer perform the task. | ||
| Davegess |
Snail, I think that if you preform the work, the next time you are at a dealer they will look at it because the recall makes them and then they will mark it as complete. You just play dumb about who did the work. By all means get teh clamps on before you have an issue. | ||
| Snail |
Thanks Dave, I'll do that. Any suggestions where I can get the parts? Since Modesto got 'culled' I really haven't established a new parts source. | ||
| Blake |
Plenty of dealerships listed in the sponsors section. I know DaveS doesn't mind handling trivial mail orders. | ||
| Angelwild327 |
I read recently that motorcycle sales, overall, were up since gas has gone up so steadily. The article was obviously trying to relay that people were buying more motorcycles because they felt it was an economical way to deal with the high price of gas...I can only hope that's true. Now, here in South Florida, where one can ride virtually all year long, scooters are massively popular, I'm talking...massive!!, and in a place where the population is growing exponentially, and I think it's a good thing.. our main Harley Dealer..even sells SCOOTERS..cringe..but hey, it's money, right? They also happen to be, literally, 1/2 block away from the Vespa store..but I believe everyone's selling scooters (and ventos) quite well. My question/point is this. I read on the thumper board, that the white blast, is a signifier that Buell will discontinue the Blast. I would think, that unless they plan to replace it with something similar, that move would be a bad move. Even though the Blast is a cheaper (price-wise) bike, it would seem to make sense that if you marketed it heavily, in this gas-price-insane economy, that Buell sales would increase tremendously and of course, spur further Buell sales, when Blast buyers return to buy upper model Buells. I, myself, am seriously considering getting a used Blast to get back and forth to work, as an economical and yes of course, super fun mode of transportation...as I am TOTALLY SICK AND TIRED of filling up my 33 gallon diesel Ram...(hell no, I won't get rid of my 5 ton baby...but I'd love to save it for rainy weather and of course, helping people move their crap..lol.. whaddya think?? PS...man, people sure do love to fork out the dough put shiny chromey parts on their Harleys...what is that about??? |
