| Author | Message | ||
     Syonyk |
Let's say Harley accomplishes the expected mismanagement of them into oblivion, and they're being sold in bankruptcy for a few pennies on the dollar. And let's assume some random relative you didn't really know died and left you with a ton of money, such that you could not only buy out Harley, but pay some of the operating costs for a while. Not indefinitely, but let's say you can cover the costs for long enough that you can piss off the "core market" and survive a few years while they're not buying bikes. You've taken it over with the factories and production lines and current technology, so there's no additional development cost to churn out more of what they're currently building. What would you do? The end goal is turning Harley back into something respectable, that is actually a good American product - think "Harley back in the 40s & 50s when they actually did build good motorcycles compared to the rest of the globe." ====================================== My thoughts: 1. Send a bunch of people out to talk to those who have dealt with dealerships. There are good Harley dealerships, and there are bad Harley dealerships. Find the good ones, find the bad ones. Dealerships that care more about Lifestyle Accessors and Chrome are bad ones. Dealerships that care about service and riding are good ones. Find the dealerships that don't care too much about "tradition" - they're the ones who will sell the next generation of bikes. I'm guessing these would map nicely to dealerships who sold and still sell Buells (Santa Fe Harley, for instance, has been buying used Buells on auction so they still have some to sell, and they're sponsoring a track day - they'd be a Good Dealership). 2. Drop back on the lifestyle crap. They're a motorcycle company, not a lifestyle company. This can get phased out slowly, but seriously. Motorcycles and related stuff, not "lifestyle that may or may not include a motorcycle." The lifestyle was cool for a decade or so, but the younger set of riders thinks it's funny more than awesome. 3. Good gear. Some of the Harley branded gear is OK. Some of it is not. Put out good, armored riding gear. Stop selling "DOT Legal" half helmets. Focus on safe riding. Focus on SKILLED riding. FFS, at least tell people buying a bike not to brake mid-corner. ========== Onto the bikes...  4. Keep producing *some* of the old line with some modifications. Add antilocks to all bikes. Period. Let's get rid of the "had to put 'er down" excuse. Other companies are doing it. Add better throttle by wire with adjustable output so you can have a newer rider able to safely ride a bike with more power. BMW is doing it, Harley can do it as well. And add a quiet fan of some variety to the rear cylinder so it doesn't melt! Also, weight reductions. 5. Weight reductions, across the line. $100/lb reward (or more) for engineers who find ways to reduce weight without significantly increasing cost. They're all heavy bikes - cut that weight down. Now that the existing bikes are at least a bit better, onto the fun new stuff. 6. Turbo V-Rod. Harley apparently can't build a turbo, so outsource it. Go with Aerodyne or whoever Buell was working with. Turn the V-Rod from something that looks like a muscle bike into something that *is* a muscle bike. If the weight remains the same, 200hp should do it. If the weight can be dropped significantly, a bit less would be fine. Make it something respectable - if the old guard Harley guys aren't going to like it, then turn it into something that other people can respect for it's performance. 7. A lighter Sportster. How is that bike nearly 600 lbs? Aim for 400 lbs. Make it easier to ride for new riders - this would be where a good throttle by wire system could come in. You can keep the highway power, but reduce the delivery at low speeds to help keep it sane to ride. The antilocks would easily feed a traction control system as well. The goal is something closer to the Blast in weight and handling, but with a bit more style and some bigger rubber. 8. Now, onto the stuff that will *really* piss off the "faithful." Build some good bikes! Play with the engine. Nothing is sacred. Build a light 60 degree v-twin. Try a parallel twin. Build bikes that have handling as part of their design, and that have respectable power for their size and weight. Go to more of a "standard" or "sport touring" position on many of the bikes as opposed to "gyno chair" feet forward styling. 9. Build something that's respectable on a track. The XR1200 might be a good start - cut the weight significantly, double the power output, and give it better brakes/suspension. It doesn't have to beat the 600s and literbikes, it just has to not totally embarrass itself. Throw out some contingency money for winning races. Get Harley back out on the track with something that will turn heads. ... and then go from here. I think it could be done, it would just involve pissing off the HOG and saying "Know what? Y'all are dying off, we're going to move forward. There are plenty of Harleys still left on the road for you to lust over and polish, but we want to target motorcyclists, not owners." | ||
| Desertfox |
I like alot of what you wrote here. I don't think electronic throttle is a good idea unless you include a software package with the bike. If I couldn't do the TPS reset on my bike, myself, I probably wouldn't still have it. I definitely agree with the weight reductions. Another thought to consider might be finding a way to balance that V-Twin a bit better so it might shake less and handle higher RPM. Also, you might want to add a bike to the line-up that can get into the small displacement commuter market. I find myself eyeing 500s and 250s now and again, especially the Suzuki TU250. It's really a cute, classy bike. You hit the nail on the head with that lifestyle stuff. I work in a petsmart and we sell Harley Davidson brand chew toys... | ||
| Syonyk |
If you include a small LCD panel, you can have that stuff be on the bike. Given that I can't actually do a TPS reset on my XB9 without software, I don't think it's a *huge* issue, but I do like that I can check/adjust stuff on the 1125 more easily. I think the 1125 model is the way to go - give some usable output on the bike, and let some stuff be reset on the bike. The real advantage of the electronic throttle is that you can, if intelligent, do some pretty sweet stuff to make bikes easier to ride while making it harder for people to get into trouble. At least by default. Throw in adjustable modes or something where a more experience rider can get a more traditional throttle response, but have the default be something that won't get a new rider into too much trouble. I'd look at the 45 degree V-twin as a legacy concession, and work to build something better. 60-70 degrees seems to be a better angle - you can actually get air into them, they're smoother running, can rev higher, but still have the v-twin feel. While I personally consider a triple to be the best "across the board" engine for a motorcycle, a v-twin isn't a bad option (nor is an I4, but I doubt Harley would ever sell many of those). If you eliminate the requirement for a motorcycle to sound a certain way, there are plenty of ways to design a motor. For that matter, look at the XB motors for some ideas of how to tweak the stock Harley motor for something resembling power. It's a "Harley 45 degree v-twin" externally, but internally it's got a bunch of changes and they make respectable power for what they are. The commuter market is an interesting idea, and that would certainly be something to throw some R&D funds at, but I'm not currently convinced it would be a profitable area to be selling a lot of bikes. That depends on gas prices. Oh, and with the new engines, find the engineers to make them all gasoline direct injection. Yes, it's more complicated and more expensive, but the power and fuel economy gains would be worth it, in addition to the fact that other than the Motus bike (which isn't out yet), nobody is using it. "First to market with a GDI engine" would make for good marketing, in addition to good tech. If you go with that, you need throttle by wire, so the two go well together. It would be a legitimate technological bragging right. Plus, you'd have a better shot at meeting modern emissions requirements while keeping a good-running engine. If you do it right and have the right engine design, you could actually do some lean-of-peak running on the side where it's *cooler* the leaner you go. Less fuel burn, lower temperatures. Don't confuse this with "leaner is hotter" - that's true on the rich side of peak EGT, but once you cross that, leaner is cooler. Basically, drag the bikes kicking and screaming from the 1960s into the 2010s. It would be an uphill battle to get acceptance for them with the current attitudes about Harley, but if you could build some bikes that were properly quick, and properly impressive (GDI, turbos, etc), I think opinions would move quickly. It'd be hard to argue with a 500lb, 200hp V-Rod.  | ||
| Jerry_haughton |
Russell, what experience do you have riding a current model Harley-Davidson? FB | ||
| Syonyk |
I've test ridden several and come away unimpressed with all of them, including the XR1200. I'm aware throttle by wire is being used on some of the current models, but it does not seem to be a particularly "intelligent" version - if it is, it's very poorly marketed. Antilocks are present on some, but not all. | ||
| Jerry_haughton |
"Test ridden." Sigh. I suspected as much. Geez, I have no time or energy for this, but: - What m/c manufacturer offer ABS on every bike in their line-up? - You mention weight. Why is this "bad"? By the way, so's you know who you're dealing with: I sometimes brake mid-corner. FB | ||
| Syonyk |
Well, I'm open to your opinions. Currently, quite a few people are concerned about the long term viability of Harley Davidson. If you think they're doing just fine as is, and will remain a strong factor into the future selling their current lineup and lifestyle accessories, that's fine - you can state that and move on instead of "wasting time" on this. Personally, I don't think this is the case, and I think their ignoring the rest of the motorcycle world will come back to bit them badly, sooner rather than later. I consider Harley & BMW to have started from roughly the same spot (as do many others). They both had an aging riding demographic, had very little appeal with younger riders, and mostly sell quite expensive bikes. BMW dealt with it by building the S1000RR and has gained a HUGE number of riders from that bike. Harley has taken an opposite approach. Also, BMW would be the company putting ABS on all their bikes starting in 2012. http://thekneeslider.com/archives/2011/04/19/bmw-m akes-abs-standard-on-all-2012-motorcycles/ Why is more weight bad? It hurts acceleration, handling, braking, fuel economy, and makes bikes less accessible to both lighter riders and women riders. I thought this was obvious... And why are you on the brakes mid-corner? I can't decide who you are - your profile picture indicates you ride a large Harley, but your ride reports seem to include sportbikes. I was referring, with that comment, to the cruiser riders I frequently end up stuck behind who seem to believe the proper way to apex a corner is by hitting the brakes. Or exit a corner on the brakes. Or any number of other silly things involving corners and brakes. Again, if you don't see any problems with how Harley is being managed and run, and the bikes they produce, that's great - say "I'd keep it exactly as is." Or suggest your changes. | ||
| Court |
>>>"I'd keep it exactly as is." Me too . . . but then, with a P/E of 37.26 . . I've got, what I think is, a great short position. I owned 9 Harley-Davidson at one time . . did some test riding for them (a very handy photo ID to have when you get pulled over) and what really bothers me is that, as much passion as I once had, I could care less about owning another. I confess some difficulty sorting out my "pure", based on their business . .and "emotional" based on some of the things they did to the people of Buell Motorcycle Company. The "dumping" Buell bothered me less than some of the down right mean and dishonest things. But, based on that, I TRY to stay kinda clear and just sit back and watch. I do have the pleasure of having a lot of friends who have now risen to high level execs (VP level) and when I hear the fire gone from them and hear them more concerned with not being in the next wave of layoffs it bothers me. It also bothers me that I kinda wanted another FLH . . . and now if I were buying one . . . well, it likely wouldn't be a HD. I've got several bets on what happens to HD over the next 36 months . . . we'll see how they play out. The are sucking hind tit in a business that, at least for several of their competitors, is looking pretty good now. | ||
| Jerry_haughton |
Syonyk: Harley's been around for more than a century; neither they (nor you) need my advice. Weight? Tell me: How much is "too" much? You suggested some ideas on how to help what you seem to feel is an inferior motorcycle be competitive, yet you barely have any experience with said motorcycle. Curious. Again: What m/c manufacturer offers ABS on every product in their line-up? FB (Message edited by jerry_haughton on April 29, 2011) | ||
| Syonyk |
Court: What you say about their executive level seems to mesh with what I've seen expressed in interviews/news articles - they've lost the passion and are now just "making widgets" instead of making motorcycles they care about. Motorcycles are, at some level, emotional. They're not just a random industrial widget. Picking up a CEO that didn't ride, for instance... | ||
| Syonyk |
Did you read my post closely enough to see the link I posted about BMW going with standard ABS on all their models in 2012? If you wish to be pedantic and claim that they haven't done it yet, I will agree that, CURRENTLY, nobody is doing it. For another 6 months or so. And since the changes I proposed would take a bit to implement, it would be roughly the same timeframe. As far as weight, I'd argue that a 580lb "starter bike" (the various Sportster models) is too heavy. Most other companies have starter bikes in the 400-450lb range. Several have perfectly good bikes significantly under 400lbs. For touring, it matters a bit less. For a sportier bike, it matters. The XR1200, at 580 lbs and 90hp, is nearly 200lbs heavier than other bikes that are attempting to be sporty with similar power. And if your opinion is that Harley has been around forever, Harley will be around forever, that's fine - that's a perfectly valid opinion, yours has been noted, and you can stop wasting your time posting in this thread. From what I can see, they've spent 20 years cashing in on the outlaw biker image created by the Hells Angels and other OMGs, they've spent another few years selling bikes to anyone with a pulse (hence their finance department tanking a few years back), and are running out of people to sell their bikes to. In exchange for their transition to a "lifestyle company," they've essentially made themselves a joke to the next generation of younger riders, who would rather buy ANYTHING BUT a Harley, and will grow up into BMWs, Triumphs, and Japanese bikes as they get older and look for something that's comfortable, but also has power and handling. Maybe I'm completely wrong. But I sure wouldn't buy HOG right now. | ||
| Jerry_haughton |
...and you can stop wasting your time posting in this thread. Thanks pal, I've got better things to do. How 'bout, however, that the next time you propose how to make a product better, you actually have some real-world experience with the product? Take care, FB | ||
| Court |
>>>Maybe I'm completely wrong. But I sure wouldn't buy HOG right now. You and I may BOTH be wrong . . . .but we are certainly not alone. There is no reason, given the analysis on HOG, for much optimism. Be mindful, when you read about the neat 1Q profits, that they had a 155% growth in profits from their finance arm, HDFS, coming out of the tank and registering record losses. It's certainly going to be an interesting couple years ahead. http://m.fool.com/investing/general/2011/04/26/bul ls-and-bears-make-money-what-about-hog http://m.fool.com/investing/general/2011/04/21/pol aris-moves-into-the-passing-lane | ||
| Maru |
Hard to figure out where to begin. While I think a course correction is necessary choosing the right course is more important than choosing another one. First lets recognize that HD has a long history that is both a blessing and a burden, The motorcycle business if very heavily influenced by history and tradition. BMW, HD, and Ducati all get to charge a premium for their products as a result of this. It has been risky at best for any of thee three to break from this tradition. Example 1, Ducati goes down the tank and gets bought by a couple of brothers with a bag of money from prior ventures and rebadges the company as Cagiva. Result, not much interest in a Ducati spelled differently. Rebadge as a Ducati and things start looking better. | ||
| Maru |
Example 2, BMW looks at the aging airhead twin and decides they can do better. They produce a line of modern multi's outfitted with many "improvements". The bikes are logically a success but fail in the market place. BMW develops a modernized opposed twin in response and sells a trainload of them at a premium price worldwide. Example 3, HD develops a watercooled, 4valve, wide angle engine. The engine could be considered a step into the future. Despite prices well below the traditional offerings, it is not exactly what one would consider a sales success. | ||
| Maru |
I don't think you help HD by throwing the baby out with the bath water. It does not matter if you or I or anyone else thinks the current product can be improved or if any of us are correct. It is my opinion that they need to hang onto the market they not only have but dominate. They also need to begin to broaden their offerings. They need an entry level bike, yes I have heard of the Sportster, that is not what I mean. Buell was the perfect vehicle to dip a toe into uncharted waters. Sport bikes, adventure bikes, beginner bikes, risky new ideas. They really painted themselves in a box on that one. They had an ongoing mechanism to try out new ideas, along the lines of what BMW has been doing, without much risk to the mothership. I am afraid it would cost a fortune now to retrace that path. | ||
| Maru |
Drive by wire, antilock, these types of things are controversy inducing technologies. Improvements or not some think this stuff is progress and others see it as another example of making a simple device more complicated. I began riding dirt bikes at age 13 and bought my first streetbike before my 17th birthday. I rode for decades before I owned a street bike without clipons. As I loose more of my grey air my perception changes. As a young guy my nickname at a race oriented shop I hung at was "hitech". Ironic, as now my riding buddies are mostly in the field of "hitech" and i am considered a a Luddite. Despite , high weight, air cooling, low HP, etc., the HD product does just fine for what it was intended. It is not inferior to a Ducati. It is better at some thing and not better at others. A big lumbering touring rig would have made no sense to me three or even two decades ago. It makes a great deal of sense to me now. They are not inferior, only different. | ||
| Maru |
The success of the "lifestyle" products continues to amaze me. Most of that stuff is not for me, but it continues to be profitable and I would sell it all day long as long as it is. That would not stop me from selling "better" safety gear, rain gear, or any other type of gear that also turned a profit. The common theme in my plan would be to broaden the base, not to circle the wagons, and not to change what works. | ||
| Maru |
I think the man at the top needs to balance both the immediate needs of the company and the long view. I think he needs a sense of both history and vision to do this. I don't think the current guy running the how has either. I think the current guy at the top at BMW has both. He also has passion for both his company, its place in history, the products they make, and his view for BMW's future. More than anything else, that is what HD needs. Whoever that person ends up being, he can decide on the merits antilock brakes. Steve | ||
| Maru |
The biggest threat (since the demise of Indian) to HD and its "core" has been Victory. The company is young and aggressive. It is also flush with cash. I see this company as a more successful, American version of Cagiva. Notice they recently bought Indian. Take into consideration that companies history and refer back to example one. | ||
| Kenm123t |
The biggest problem with HD is Attitude. Attitude is what caused the destruction of Buell and may be of HD its self. Bikes like cars have differing purposes. I dont tow my 15klb boat with my vette for example. Engineering and finish quality rose over as sales increased. Buell could have done better with less over sight or over control by HD lifestyle attitudes. But corporate money brings controls that are difficult at best, Court and the Elves need to get this all down for future publication. Motorcycles invoke passion its one of the reasons people ride. Loyalty is what built HD attitude will destroy it as attitude destroys loyalty. My dad had Hds and Buells he sold the hds kept the Buells.Why? the attitude our dealer had and they raced Buells in CCS. If Hd can capture the old Elves magic they will prosper if they cant hd has an uncertain future. | ||
| Maru |
If things get bad enough Victory can buy what is left. Maybe they will call the combination of Victory (ironic name huh), Harley, and Indian, American Motors. It has a catchy ring to it, no? | ||
| Luftkoph |
Well if I was smart enough to run a company like HD I would not be at my present job. Now over the past weekend I went down to Grand Rapids MI and while there we went out looking at bike shops,since there are none of any size around here.Before we started I asked my chick to take note of the people and how they acted at different shops,we went to a victory shop,bmw,and harley shop.The HD was the busiest with a lot of non pirate looking folks buying clearance marked clothing $65 jeans made in china with tags that said an american legend.But they were ringing up sales for sure. So I guess as long as they can keep this marketing going they will be ok, not like in 06,but still around making money | ||
| Smoker |
Non-union labor. Done. | ||
| Pons |
I've had one Harley, a '06 Ultra Classic. In the past I've had mostly Jap bikes. My issues with the Harley I had were minor. I put 16k miles on it in about 13 months. 1) poor fuel mileage (avg was 31mpg hwy) 2) poor handling at high speed in big sweepers. (near tank slappers because the way frame flexes) 3)hard to balance at parking lot speed because most if not all electronics are mounted up in or near batwing fairing plus fuel tank is high on frame. 4) Air cooled. Horrible but not unbearable in 100+ air temps. 5) No center stand. Difficult to check tires and inspect left side of bike when out on road on a trip. 6) Ambient temp gauge on dash but no oil pressure gauge?? 7) Expensive Harmon Karden sound system reception through head phones at speed stinks. 8) Saddle bags open from top so your digging through everything to find stuff in bottom of bag. 9) Aux lambs almost useless with 35w lamps. Do not come on with headlight on high beam. 10) Poor top end power. Not much left after about 80mph to get out of someones way. Positive stuff to me was fit and finish. Thousand mile days on the stock saddle very doable. Cruise control work great. Tons of storage. Very recognizable to general population and everyone that didn't ride was like, Wow a Harley.....Cool! Trade value not too bad from dealer I bought it from. Thats the short list  | ||
| Panhead_dan |
"What would you do? The end goal is turning Harley back into something respectable, that is actually a good American product - think "Harley back in the 40s & 50s when they actually did build good motorcycles compared to the rest of the globe."" I admit, I didn't read all the replies but would like to address this quote from the OP. I would clean house. After finding the best, most talented replacements for management personell, I would replace those positions from the top down. I would then begin specific training for these to include actual riding and using the product in order to instill a complete understanding of the product and it's potential customers. Once this is in place and functioning I would form a group who's job is to create new product. By new I mean of the latest, cutting edge, world leading new. | ||
| Hybridmomentspass |
Pons - have your bike looked at, doesnt sound right. I took my fathers ultra on two trips last year, I got low 40s on the highway on both. Then the handling part - I rode it on the Cherahola (spelling, I know I messed it up) Skyway and had no ill handling issues. That road is almost all sweepers. His has the ambient temp and oil pressure, as well as battery, fuel and then the tach and speedo. Funny thread, some neat ideas though Turbo VRod sounds awesome, but I think it'd be nicer/easier for them to adapt more Destroyer stuff onto the streetbike, make less power (than the 200 you mentioned), but you dont add the weight of turbo/IC/piping). More power in the sportster - agreed. Heck, it still makes me scratch my head that the XR1200 has less power than my 99 tube frame. Harley has the parts to give it a few extra HP and at least break the 100hp mark, not sure why they dont toss it on. Agree on the people running it need to be enthusiasts and know the market better. I do not think they should phase out any of the lifestyle stuff - it makes money, why cut that out? As silly as some people (myself included on some of the items) think it is, HD are the ones laughing the hardest as they rake in the money from the selling of the goods. HD is in one of the VERY rare situations, like Apple as one example, that people will buy the products cause they love the company. I am curious about the new entry level bike that's been mentioned in the past. And earlier post mentioned HD putting contingency money up for racing - they do. They have in the past. They continue to. And they will in the future. I've gotten some of it myself. A VRod powered touring bike would be interesting to see, and may not cost them TOO much extra money to produce. If I had the chance to call some shots I'd look into it. | ||
| Mark61 |
} Buell Blast was entry level. A LOT of people would be interested in the VRod bagger just for the heat management! | ||
| Swampy |
You guys are looking at the product not the profit, looking at the dealer not the corporation. What happens with dealers is totally indepent to what is going on with the corporation. The corporation is making Walmart decisions, old school was Buy American, new school is buy from China, ship to America, make money being the middleman. So the corporation should be doing fine, accessories wise, motorcycle wise it is a whole 'nother story. The corporation has their dealer network in a chokehold with the red brick buildings popping up all over. I am sure the motor company has financed a very large portion of the properties and have governing regulations as to what can an cannot be sold under the roof of the red bricks. The dealers are stuck selling only one make of product, and I bet if they could make a buck selling chainsaws or Hondas, you would see chainsaws staged by the front door, but they can't and they are probably sweating the next years inventory coming in. Which leads to the main point, the motor company doesn't care if Joe Schmoe buys their product or not, they have very all of their production spoken for from a very captive market(the dealers) and no, I can't prove my points, I have not seen a dealership agreement, I have seen the giant Polaris buildings and know one owner, from what I understand you don't own much of the building Polaris does.... | ||
| Hybridmomentspass |
The dealers are stuck selling only one make of product," Nope quick esample is Ray Price, sells Triumphs Youngs in Greensboro NC used to sell Kaws too Those are two quick ones from my area, its been discussed before that some sell other japanese brands and italian brands (ducati I remember was spoke of) |
